merlin
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Post by merlin on Mar 1, 2014 10:54:10 GMT
As we have two large auctions, 5221 and 5155 running at the moment I thought it might be worthwhile putting up a thread to discuss their prospects and to just maybe, wise up the general community. So what are your views folks?
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 1, 2014 11:41:15 GMT
As we have two large auctions, 5221 and 5155 running at the moment I thought it might be worthwhile putting up a thread to discuss their prospects and to just maybe, wise up the general community. So what are your views folks?
I had a slice of the £300k loan that look good, but didn't last long. Big isn't necessarily beautiful
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Mar 1, 2014 12:44:31 GMT
I hope FC have suggested to these two A rated companies that big loans do not get close to the 7.9% MBR at the present time. Otherwise, I anticipate a big wait by bi....flippers until the last minute, then large numbers of bids 14-15%, raising the overall rate to well over 10%....then the company says, "no, ta!" I bet my fourth banana at least one of them falls into this scenario.  |
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blender
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Post by blender on Mar 1, 2014 13:26:37 GMT
I am not quite sure what the question is. Agreed that size does not imply that it will repay and we must all make our judgments, depending on how long we intend to keep it. Last year a large loan of £250k+ was our only chance of getting a good rate and you could almost guarantee to be able to flip it or sell when you wished. It is clear that conditions have changed and that with limited lender cash available we can currently get good (relatively) rates on any A loan of £100k plus. I imagine that over the last few weeks flippers (and lenders) have already filled their boots and are being cautious about when the market will move to favour sellers again.
Taking that first loan, it has the disadvantage of no HMG money but also the advantage of £97k of money at MBR and £142k at 9% or below (and these would surely be called mug punters in other contexts). Since there is no need for lender boot filling on this loan, it will need flipper cash to fully fund and if it does so that cash will, I believe soon disappear as the rate descends, and we may end up with a sort of binary distribution between 7.9% and something in the elevens or twelves. Overall the MBR weighting should produce an acceptable rate (in monthly repayments) and I think it will be worth having a chunk (if you like the company) but expecting to have to hold it for some time.
First it will be interesting to see how long it takes to get fully funded, or will it be the first ... ? You can bet that FC will be watching carefully and with some concern and hands on any emergency lever - how are they to grow and float if £250k is the limit?
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 1, 2014 13:27:58 GMT
I hope FC have suggested to these two A rated companies that big loans do not get close to the 7.9% MBR at the present time. I think we all know the answer to this. Surprisingly, most of the borrowers don't appear capable of working it out for themselves.
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Mar 1, 2014 14:04:57 GMT
If the loans have been thrown at FC by the intermediaries, a lot of borrowers may not (expect to) have a clue. They trust their "agent" to get them a good deal.
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merlin
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Post by merlin on Mar 1, 2014 16:33:31 GMT
Having given this thread a few hours in the breeze I thought we may have had a few comments as to whether these loans should be rated as "A". I for one think that the second loan really only rates a "C" given all the risks that are intimated by the information provided. I for one wont be putting my spoon in to that pudding except perhaps for a quick flip.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Mar 1, 2014 22:03:17 GMT
IM (limited) experience big loans don't flip very well or fast - too much (10s of £k) last minute robot bid money at the top marginal rate, all going to be resold at 0.5% markup very soon. And big is definitely not beautiful (nor is small).
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blender
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Post by blender on Mar 1, 2014 22:06:16 GMT
I had not looked at the financials for the second loan, being so far in the future. I agree with you, Merlin. Latest filed accounts from mid 2012 have £440k intangible assets, possibly goodwill from previous purchases. Perhaps not much for our third charge on assets. And we know nothing of the company to be purchased. Flying blind in Wales. One for the Autobidders and flippers perhaps. One to watch.
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blender
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Post by blender on Mar 4, 2014 23:20:07 GMT
While the first loan is yet to fill and closes on Friday after two weeks, the second is full and at an average rate of 9.3% (iirc). This despite not answering important questions about its finances. I think they have a good offer already, assisted by the Business Bank.
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Mar 5, 2014 16:14:36 GMT
.... the second is full and at an average rate of 9.3%
Don't see that. The rate is 10.2% at the moment. (First loan full now, currently 9.9%)
G
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Mar 5, 2014 16:57:12 GMT
With about £30k at 15% (first loan) IIRC .. which means if it closes flipping will be slow, at best. I don't think I'll be stocking up with either of those!!
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blender
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Post by blender on Mar 5, 2014 22:27:23 GMT
.... the second is full and at an average rate of 9.3% Don't see that. The rate is 10.2% at the moment. (First loan full now, currently 9.9%) G Sorry, my mistake. Must have misremembered 9.3 for 10.3
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blender
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Post by blender on Mar 7, 2014 9:22:42 GMT
The first biggy has just been taken at about 9am, at 9.6% and with the rest of the day still to go. Fortunately I had just refreshed my bids knocked out overnight, and then it was gone. Unfortunately I bid a little too low as the marginal rate is over 14%, but am happy with an A in the mid 13s. Flipper cash had not really got going on it. First time borrower do not appreciate the importance of running to the end on a large loan.
The second biggy is not for me (unless at a similar rate).
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merlin
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Post by merlin on Mar 7, 2014 9:45:04 GMT
The first biggy has just been taken at about 9am, at 9.6% and with the rest of the day still to go. Fortunately I had just refreshed my bids knocked out overnight, and then it was gone. Unfortunately I bid a little too low as the marginal rate is over 14%, but am happy with an A in the mid 13s. Flipper cash had not really got going on it. First time borrower do not appreciate the importance of running to the end on a large loan. The second biggy is not for me (unless at a similar rate). Like you I nearly got caught out as I expected it to drift down to around 13% but fortunately had four speculative bids at 14.2% which I made last night still on the go. Was looking forward to see this one finish later in the day and also to see if the site could take the strain! Wont be doing much with the next biggie other than small dabble - too risky I fear.
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