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Post by GSV3MIaC on Feb 12, 2016 18:00:30 GMT
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Feb 12, 2016 18:00:46 GMT
The Bedfordshire farmland loans now have PBL numbers (077 - 080) but no valuation docs on the site yet. A word of warning -- double-check your pre-funding figures. I refreshed my pipeline loans page to confirm that the PBLs had been added -- and discovered that two of my four my pre-funding amounts had changed from what I had set a day or two ago. One was nearly double what I wanted, and the other was 10x what I had set! I haven't a clue how that might have happened. (I did remember to update them one at a time and then click the Save button after each change.) I hope what happened to me was just a fluke and doesn't catch others out, as it could be rather awkward if these go live and everyone is allocated what they pre-funded.
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Feb 12, 2016 18:03:34 GMT
I wish we had the option of a thumbs down in addition to the thumbs up! That's two posts where I "don't like" - not to diss the writer, just for the sentiment expressed.  No bananas means more sprouts and cabbage and carrots and ONIONS  |
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Feb 12, 2016 18:06:47 GMT
The Bedfordshire farmland loans now have PBL numbers (077 - 080) but no valuation docs on the site yet. A word of warning -- double-check your pre-funding figures. I refreshed my pipeline loans page to confirm that the PBLs had been added -- and discovered that two of my four my pre-funding amounts had changed from what I had set a day or two ago. One was nearly double what I wanted, and the other was 10x what I had set! I haven't a clue how that might have happened. (I did remember to update them one at a time and then click the Save button after each change.) I hope what happened to me was just a fluke and doesn't catch others out, as it could be rather awkward if these go live and everyone is allocated what they pre-funded. Checked mine. No changes.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Feb 12, 2016 18:09:47 GMT
I would also expect the buildings to be included with one or more of the tranches, but as far as I am aware SS only says 200+ acres of land, rather than farm with 200+ acres. That raises an interesting question for savingstream -- How will the buildings be divided between the tranches? For that matter, how will the land be divided? From an investor's point of view, would it be better to invest in the tranche that includes the buildings because that might have a more reliable value? Or in the tranches that don't, as it would seem they'd be more likely to obtain PP for redevelopment?
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gt94sss2
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Post by gt94sss2 on Feb 12, 2016 18:10:15 GMT
Just to keep you all in the loop, we will be issuing the 48 hours notice before we go live with a number of loans very soon i.e tmrw afternoon. We are hoping to receive the valuation documents for all 4 tranches of the farmland in Bedfordshire TOMORROW which we will put up as soon as they arrive with us for your perusal. Obviously the timing of these loans has slipped slightly and that's fine. The question I had was that (as you did with the previous 2 loans) is it your intention to email investors with 48 hours before every loan goes live in future for us to update our PF settings? I hope this is the case as I think its a very positive development but would just like to know if its not going to be a permanent feature..
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am
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Post by am on Feb 12, 2016 18:10:23 GMT
What we don't yet know is whether we are being offered all the farm, including the buildings, as security, or just the land. Depending on what the buildings are £10m might be reasonable (if you accept agricultural land prices as reasonable - I've looked at buying agricultural land and rejected it because the achievable income was too low) for the whole farm, but it seems a bit rich for just 823 acres of land. The other point that is concerning me that even if they get strategic planning for some of the land I have some skepticism that they will get it for the whole property in the short term - there's still a fair bit of undeveloped land west of the eastern bypass (Baden Powell Way). What's on offer for £9.25M seems to include the house and farm buildings because they're part of the Rightmove 'slide show'. The SS 'Value TBC' for the four tranches is £10M, but in view of the estate agent listing that does seem a bit excessive, though I suppose if it's about to be sold for £9.25M after 6 months of offering then the valuer could deem that to be the 180-day value and show a higher 'market' value. Having said that, though, should we expect the property to go for the offering price after being for sale for six months? (Is there any way to tell if the offering price now is the same as it was when it first was listed?) If the borrower is paying something like £9M for the property and borrowing £7M from SS then they'd have to be providing about £3M of their own funds as their net disbursal from SS would be about £6M -- or less -- once all the fees and upfront interest are retained. As for the likelihood of obtaining PP for housing in the short-term, am makes a good point about there still being a lot of undeveloped land inside the bypass. But it would seem that there's a lot of development going on there at the moment, as indicated by a comparison of the Google 'map' and 'satellite' views of that area. The map shows a network of roads, whereas the satellite view -- presumably older -- shows green fields! There a plan on the council web site showing the whole area inside the bypass being developed, with a linear park along the bypass. www.centralbedfordshire.gov.uk/Images/Land%20East%20of%20Biggleswade%20Development%20Brief_tcm6-13667.pdfWhen this is complete, if they want more residential development, there are two potential areas I see - the western 300 acres or so of West Sunderland Farm to the east, and Furzenhall Farm to the north. There's also an aerodrome to the west which might possibly be a potential brownfield site. We need someone local to tell us how much land is left inside the relief road.
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am
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Post by am on Feb 12, 2016 18:12:37 GMT
I would also expect the buildings to be included with one or more of the tranches, but as far as I am aware SS only says 200+ acres of land, rather than farm with 200+ acres. That raises an interesting question for savingstream -- How will the buildings be divided between the tranches? For that matter, how will the land be divided? From an investor's point of view, would it be better to invest in the tranche that includes the buildings because that might have a more reliable value? Or in the tranches that don't, as it would seem they'd be more likely to obtain PP for redevelopment? Or the tranche closest to the town (which may well include the farm buildings).
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Feb 12, 2016 18:22:54 GMT
There a plan on the council web site showing the whole area inside the bypass being developed, with a linear park along the bypass. www.centralbedfordshire.gov.uk/Images/Land%20East%20of%20Biggleswade%20Development%20Brief_tcm6-13667.pdfWhen this is complete, if they want more residential development, there are two potential areas I see - the western 300 acres or so of West Sunderland Farm to the east, and Furzenhall Farm to the north. There's also an aerodrome to the west which might possibly be a potential brownfield site. We need someone local to tell us how much land is left inside the relief road. : Thanks for the link to the 2003 report. 13 years later, it would appear that there's still land within the bypass to be developed. This suggests to me that PP for development outside the bypass is rather unlikely to be obtained within the term of the SS loan. Am I being too pessimistic?
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cooling_dude
Bye Bye's for the PPI
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Post by cooling_dude on Feb 12, 2016 18:24:33 GMT
I wonder if SS will get a valuation document for each Tranche, or value the land as a whole and just divide the valuation by 4?
I would prefer to see a valuation document for each tranche, which is then represented fairly in the loan provided to the borrower to maintain a consistent LTV. If not one or more tranches (in particular the one with the house in) could be much more desirable than the others......
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Feb 12, 2016 18:31:47 GMT
I wonder if SS will get a valuation document for each Tranche, or value the land as a whole and just divide the valuation by 4? I would prefer to see a valuation document for each tranche, which is then represented fairly in the loan provided to the borrower to maintain a consistent LTV. If not one or more tranches ( in particular the one with the house in) could be much more desirable than the others...... We'll obviously have to wait until we see the documents, but if the idea of the different tranches was supposed to be so that they could be developed and/or repaid separately, then ISTM that each tranche might need to be associated with a specific bit of land with a separate title. Or is that overcomplicating the situation?
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cooling_dude
Bye Bye's for the PPI
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Post by cooling_dude on Feb 12, 2016 18:37:05 GMT
I wonder if SS will get a valuation document for each Tranche, or value the land as a whole and just divide the valuation by 4? I would prefer to see a valuation document for each tranche, which is then represented fairly in the loan provided to the borrower to maintain a consistent LTV. If not one or more tranches ( in particular the one with the house in) could be much more desirable than the others...... We'll obviously have to wait until we see the documents, but if the idea of the different tranches was supposed to be so that they could be developed and/or repaid separately, then ISTM that each tranche might need to be associated with a specific bit of land with a separate title. Or is that overcomplicating the situation? No not at all..... With all this speculating it begs me to ask WHERE IS OUR VALUATION DOCUMENTS SAVING STREAM!!!!! 
Sigh.... Friday night. I need a port and brandy
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am
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Post by am on Feb 12, 2016 19:39:02 GMT
There a plan on the council web site showing the whole area inside the bypass being developed, with a linear park along the bypass. www.centralbedfordshire.gov.uk/Images/Land%20East%20of%20Biggleswade%20Development%20Brief_tcm6-13667.pdfWhen this is complete, if they want more residential development, there are two potential areas I see - the western 300 acres or so of West Sunderland Farm to the east, and Furzenhall Farm to the north. There's also an aerodrome to the west which might possibly be a potential brownfield site. We need someone local to tell us how much land is left inside the relief road. : Thanks for the link to the 2003 report. 13 years later, it would appear that there's still land within the bypass to be developed. This suggests to me that PP for development outside the bypass is rather unlikely to be obtained within the term of the SS loan. Am I being too pessimistic? The borrower thinks otherwise (and is willing to gamble £2m on it), and should be in a better position to know than we are. We haven't been told what they borrower's exit strategy is. If they get the land rezoned, I guess that they try to sell it to a housebuilder for the housebuilder's landbank (at £20,000-£30,000 per acre?). If the don't get the land rezoned they've got to sell it or refinance at a sustainable interest rate. Delays are likely to eat into the LTV margin.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Feb 12, 2016 19:41:32 GMT
Maybe there is a small hitch or two? .. I mean the area shrank from 250 to '200+' acres, the total value seems to perhaps be a bit less than £10m, so the 70% LTV has to be looking a bit threatened, especially for any bits which don't include the farm itself?
Ah well, at least it un-bunged the SM a bit .. for some of the older loans, if not the newer ones.
addition: with respect to am's estimate, I think it is a zero short of what you'd need to pay for zoned building land in the part of the world! Not that I live there any more, but we are talking commuter belt, and even at 5 houses to the acre ..
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Feb 12, 2016 20:08:26 GMT
What's the farmer going to do once the land is sold? Head for Spain and retirement? Or do they have an agreement with the buyer that they can continue to run the farm until the PP decision is made? Does that affect the potential resale value of the land if PP for development is not forthcoming quickly? I think I've just talked myself into reducing my pre-funding requests still further!  |
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