spyrogyra
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Post by spyrogyra on Mar 11, 2014 12:54:26 GMT
It looks like the profile pattern of the borrowers has changed. Lately I don't see may Estonian loans with 28-30% interest and even when such show up, they don't attract much interest and fill rather slowly. Finnish loans dominate these days. Is this something to do with the currents events in Ukraine and concerns about the Baltic countries? If the answer is yes, then we may see panicking investors selling at great discounts. But if that's the case, are there many brave investors ?
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james
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Post by james on Mar 11, 2014 13:46:27 GMT
Are you lending with investment profiles? If not, you should, that's where most of the loans show up.
Here are the most recent four weeks for me, most recent first, all for only Estonian A1000 loans:
Loans Mean 28%+ 28%+ % 21 23.8 11 52.4% 21 23.9 11 52.4% 38 24.2 17 44.7% 22 24.0 12 54.5%
So I haven't seen any real sign of a decrease or change in rates. The first few weeks of the year were probably busier than average because that's quite common in lending to consumers.
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Post by batchoy on Mar 11, 2014 14:13:56 GMT
One potential reason for the domination of Finnish loans is that lenders are wary of them and as james points out the (good) Estonian ones are bid out fairly quickly by investment profiles.
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spyrogyra
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Post by spyrogyra on Mar 11, 2014 14:19:31 GMT
I have my investment profile set up at 27% minimum.
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james
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Post by james on Mar 11, 2014 14:49:51 GMT
That 27% rate is why you are seeing few loans. It's far too high to get many matches. The way it works is that the interest rate you use sets the average minimum size of loan that you will be part of. That in turn combines with your amount per loan to set your lending speed.
While I've more analysis that is only partly done, in the 60 month A1000 group a rate of even 20% would have assured inclusion in these loan sizes in a small sample of loans: €4625, too high, too high, €4370, €8735. Those aren't average sizes. I selected them deliberately to give a higher than usual range of interest rates to help me work out what interest rate I'd need to use to be included in a particular size of loan.
In a bigger sample of this 60A1000 group the highest value 25% of loans were for €6000 or more. Top 50% were for €4000 or more. Top 10% were for €8000 or more. This is the least rate-sensitive Estonian A1000 loan term and even here you'd need to be offering 19% or 20% to be included in half of loans.
Looking at 36 month and shorter terms the competition is greater and you'd need a lower rate to be included in 50% of loans.
You might need lower rates in the week or two from the 10th of the month because those seven days are when a large chunk of Estonian payments happen. So people who didn't have money to lend will have some until the repayment money runs out.
If you want to get a better idea and have a good chance of being included in half of loans I suggest that you try 19% for 48 and 60 months and 17% (may be too high) for shorter terms. Adjust together with your loan size until you get the lending speed you want. Don't try to lend too fast, loan quality varies with time and it is good to have time diversification.
You can also shop in the resale market. You should find good things to buy there. Given the large number of loans that you're not part of, you won't see many on sale that you already have. It's easy enough to buy loans at 20% or more rate that aren't late. Many won't even have reached first payment day yet. More available at lower rates as well. And of course still more that are late. You do need to look at them to pick the ones you want, of course. If you were to see one from me at a rate of 50% you can be certain that it is only at that rate because I think it's about to default and prefer to pay someone else to deal with the debt collection process by selling it at a discount. But you'll also find loans at 16% or 17% and above from me that are just being sold because I don't like the rate or something about the borrower. If I get a loan at 16% I'll usually sell it and make sure that the rate to the buyer is 16% or 17% or higher. Don't ignore the ones being sold at a premium price, those are often the best ones for a new investor to buy. If someone is selling at a discount they have a reason and it sometimes won't be as simple as me not liking the rate and offering a premium just to get rid of the loan. Or it might be as simple as that. Just check.
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duck
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Post by duck on Mar 11, 2014 17:23:09 GMT
Some very good advice in that post James.
On the lowering of the 'offering rate' my view is to accept that you will pick up some loans below your chosen rate but as long as the average for the day/week is above your chosen rate then all is OK. That said, I try to keep a keen eye on the loans that I pick up, I've had days like yesterday where I only picked up 28% loans and others where the rate has been considerably below - I adjust the rate as soon as I notice this happening.
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Post by wiseclerk on Mar 11, 2014 19:36:52 GMT
I have my investment profile set up at 27% minimum. At that rate you'll get nearly none EE A1000 loans. I've got my main profile currently bidding at EE A1000 loans at 21% and I get a sufficient number of loans (mostly at 28%). In fact depsite high repayments (e.g. 208€ on March 10th) my cash balance left in the account is quite often almost zero preventing the profile from bidding on even more loans.
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Post by batchoy on Mar 11, 2014 20:18:30 GMT
In fact depsite high repayments (e.g. 208€ on March 10th) my cash balance left in the account is quite often almost zero preventing the profile from bidding on even more loans. A while back I set a minimum balance across all my profiles (it needs to be the same figure across all the profiles to work) as an experiment for withholding a balance for drawing regular income. One of the things that I discovered is that it doesn't quite work and when there are a lot of matching loans the system will bid well into this margin. It also means that when I have exhausted my income for the month I can drop the retained balance thus releasing funds (remembering to raise it the night before my peak income day) and as a result I appear to be flattening the repayment peaks.
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james
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Post by james on Mar 12, 2014 19:27:52 GMT
Today was a busy lending day for me. 12 loans issued, adding to 5 on Tuesday and 3 on Monday this week. So today's score:
8 A1000 at 28% that I will keep. 3 A1000 that are or will be in resale. (16% low rate, 28% bailiff mentioned in application, 28% other) 3 A1000 bids that may become low rate loans to sell. 1 B1000 at 28%
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james
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Post by james on Mar 13, 2014 16:24:01 GMT
Another busy day for me:
11 A1000 at 28% that I will keep 1 A1000 at 28% that I'm selling 1 A1000 at 22% that I will keep No bids that could become low rate loans
Makes me glad that I added about €700 last week and had a good weekend of sales. Even so I've just sent more money to isePankur to be more sure that I don't run out of money to lend. I usually keep at least €500 Euros available; looking to keep €1500 at the moment. Still perhaps six to twelve months to reach my lending target, though. That's why I'm using quite low bids that get more matches in Estonian A1000 than I would normally want to use. I'd increase by at least 2% if it wasn't for that target lending amount.
May mean that isePankur is running an advertising campaign in Estonia at the moment.
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duck
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Post by duck on Mar 13, 2014 18:45:59 GMT
yes a busy day for me as well, 10 A1000 @ 28% and one at 26%. A couple more sales on the aftermarket of loans that have had / are having problems and a fair number of late payers have got back up to date ......so all in all very satisfactory. I'm also keeping a healthy balance at present.
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james
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Post by james on Mar 13, 2014 22:04:46 GMT
Not such a good end to the day. Got a 14% from a non-quick loan that ended its auction. Off to resale with it.
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JamesFrance
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Port Grimaud 1974
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Post by JamesFrance on Mar 14, 2014 10:18:27 GMT
I too have my profile set to get a lot of A1000 loans in quite small amounts, trying to match the loans to my available cash and keep the profiles running continuously. My average this month is so far about 26% which is better than the last 2 months, so I am quite pleased with the current situation. I am not selling lower rate loans as they are usually to people with strong financial details, so unlikely to default, however it is annoying when non quick loans starting at quite low rates are driven down even lower by manual bids during the week, some people don't seem to understand the system. Maybe in another year the present lower rate loans will seem much more attractive and can be sold at a profit later. Even the lowest isePankur rates seem attractive compared to most of the returns available on other platforms and their volume has grown to three times the level when I started with them in August.
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spyrogyra
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Post by spyrogyra on Mar 22, 2014 19:55:53 GMT
I'll put my profile on 21% A1000 to see how it goes. As far as I get it, I should flip the loans with 21-25% rate and keep the ones with higher rates. With this scenario, I am a bit concerned I may exhaust my cash quickly on loans with lower interest rates that wouldn't sell quickly.
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james
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Post by james on Mar 22, 2014 20:50:17 GMT
I wouldn't normally flip loans at 21-25%. At present I'd normally look to do that for 17% or lower but there is some variation depending on the credit grade and loan term. You shouldn't expect any trouble when quickly selling loans that start at 21% unless the term is less than 12 months. It only gets relatively hard for 12 months and more when the initial rate is below 17% and even that doesn't necessarily have to be sold at a loss.
Better to get your money invested first, then look to sell the parts of your loan book that are least attractive and reinvest the proceeds from the sales then.
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