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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2016 10:20:57 GMT
I stopped buying at the recent rate/mechanism change and just held (mainly old style A and A+)
Recently, I have begun selling off all the low rate loans (at a premium) and any short time remaining loans so as to elevate my average return rate (~10%) and to release cash for investment in MT/FS/SS at 12% not 8% (before mngmt costs). That seems to be working well.
However I still have a fair bit of longer term loans that I was pretty selective about when I took them out Do you have concerns that longer term loans are no longer being managed, I've not seen (touch wood) an increase in defaults/issues being reported but have others?
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Post by goldservice on Mar 9, 2016 12:32:09 GMT
We got the bots banned there, if not at F C. Do keep up! 8>. Yes - but before the bots were banned by SS, did you easily build up a holding with your bot? Did you mean to make it sound like the bot runners were doing us non-bot users a favour by getting SS to control the bots through the introduction of reCaptchas? The outcry on the SS forum against the bots had nothing to do with that? With what have I not kept up?
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Mar 9, 2016 16:08:53 GMT
We got the bots banned there, if not at F C. Do keep up! 8>. Yes - but before the bots were banned by SS, did you easily build up a holding with your bot? Did you mean to make it sound like the bot runners were doing us non-bot users a favour by getting SS to control the bots through the introduction of reCaptchas? The outcry on the SS forum against the bots had nothing to do with that? With what have I not kept up? I would have done, if I had wanted to, but actually I didn't .. my investment in both FC and SS is more like a hobby, which id why I am quite happy to just bid a few% of an E rather than 20%. There was a general feeling on SS that 'there were no bots on the SM', whoch was cr&p, and which I demonstrated to be cr&p by publicising one (mine, which was actually about #3 or #4 on the scene, albeit much faster than the others). Hopefully that was enough to get the playing field levelled .. I wish FC would do the same. You hadn't (or appeared not to have) kept up with the non-existence of bots over at SS these day. Yes there were, now they have gone. Wish we could say the same for FC.
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arbster
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Post by arbster on Mar 10, 2016 16:03:21 GMT
Since December I've been trying out a statistical approach to managing my FC portfolio, based on default rates for each risk band/term across the whole loan book, since which time I've had no new defaults. It does require me to sell parts after anything from 1 to 13 months, depending on the statistical likelihood of defaults, and finding replacement parts of comparable quality can be challenging. It is an imperfect model in many ways - it assumes consistency in FC's credit assessment procedures over time, and clearly requires the economic conditions to remain relatively benign - but at it's largely automated and seems to respond logically to changes in the loan book.
As others have pointed out, less favourable economic conditions are probably on the horizon, so I plan to tighten my criteria and cash out the capital freed up, rather than re-invest.
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happy
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Post by happy on Mar 10, 2016 17:00:21 GMT
Since December I've been trying out a statistical approach to managing my FC portfolio, based on default rates for each risk band/term across the whole loan book, since which time I've had no new defaults. It does require me to sell parts after anything from 1 to 13 months, depending on the statistical likelihood of defaults, and finding replacement parts of comparable quality can be challenging. It is an imperfect model in many ways - it assumes consistency in FC's credit assessment procedures over time, and clearly requires the economic conditions to remain relatively benign - but at it's largely automated and seems to respond logically to changes in the loan book. As others have pointed out, less favourable economic conditions are probably on the horizon, so I plan to tighten my criteria and cash out the capital freed up, rather than re-invest. Interesting approach arbster. So how would you decide how long to hold on to an A loan? I ask as I have had 3 A loans go pop in the last 6 months, one after one payment, one after 3 and one after 6 months but it was 3 months behind by then when FC defaulted them! I'm far from impressed with FCs risk grading to be honest and tightened up my selection criteria a lot more recently Unfortunately this resulted in me rejecting about 90% of what FC class as A+/A and reducing investment amount per loan - making the whole exercise of investing in FC way too time consuming for too little reward me thinks! Good luck!
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Investboy
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Trying to recover from P2P revolution
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Post by Investboy on Mar 10, 2016 17:15:50 GMT
Since December I've been trying out a statistical approach to managing my FC portfolio, based on default rates for each risk band/term across the whole loan book, since which time I've had no new defaults. It does require me to sell parts after anything from 1 to 13 months, depending on the statistical likelihood of defaults, and finding replacement parts of comparable quality can be challenging. It is an imperfect model in many ways - it assumes consistency in FC's credit assessment procedures over time, and clearly requires the economic conditions to remain relatively benign - but at it's largely automated and seems to respond logically to changes in the loan book. As others have pointed out, less favourable economic conditions are probably on the horizon, so I plan to tighten my criteria and cash out the capital freed up, rather than re-invest. I think the best approach better than statistical analysis to avoid defaults is to invest in none of their offerings  Its mind-boggling that the loan can default before first or second repayment as it happens here... But despite my complain I'm investing there as I like to test things on my own skin with own money. So far 1 default after 6 months investing.
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arbster
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Post by arbster on Mar 11, 2016 8:46:14 GMT
Interesting approach arbster . So how would you decide how long to hold on to an A loan? I ask as I have had 3 A loans go pop in the last 6 months, one after one payment, one after 3 and one after 6 months but it was 3 months behind by then when FC defaulted them! I'm far from impressed with FCs risk grading to be honest and tightened up my selection criteria a lot more recently Unfortunately this resulted in me rejecting about 90% of what FC class as A+/A and reducing investment amount per loan - making the whole exercise of investing in FC way too time consuming for too little reward me thinks! I already do have quite high quality threshold, so find myself investing in a very small proportion of what they offer, hence the observation about the difficulty in replacing those parts I sell. My model currently has me not buying any 12-month As (12A), and selling 24A after 9 payments, 36A after 6, 48A after 9 and 60A after 7. According to the model, all A+ loans return less than my minimum target regardless of term, so I don't buy any of those either.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Mar 11, 2016 9:08:57 GMT
Would somebody like to buy my very, very last SME part? It's feeling a bit loan-ly.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Mar 11, 2016 10:14:05 GMT
Would somebody like to buy my very, very last SME part? It's feeling a bit loan-ly. How much of a discount will you offer to get it away? (you can offer up to 20% now you know!)
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Mar 11, 2016 18:00:40 GMT
Would somebody like to buy my very, very last SME part? It's feeling a bit loan-ly. How much of a discount will you offer to get it away? (you can offer up to 20% now you know!) Sod that. It's at a very decent rate after a small premium. I LONG since got rid of the low-rate chod.
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am
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Post by am on Mar 11, 2016 21:21:08 GMT
How much of a discount will you offer to get it away? (you can offer up to 20% now you know!) Sod that. It's at a very decent rate after a small premium. I LONG since got rid of the low-rate chod. What's the loan number?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Mar 11, 2016 22:11:30 GMT
Sod that. It's at a very decent rate after a small premium. I LONG since got rid of the low-rate chod. What's the loan number? 8862 - £16.25 @ 9.6%
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Mar 12, 2016 8:18:41 GMT
If you thnk that is a good rate then you have been here too long!
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Mar 12, 2016 8:33:42 GMT
If you thnk that is a good rate then you have been here too long! Fortunately, overnight somebody did think it was a good rate. Thanks, Dr Iain, if you read this. I feel... released. <thinks> Hmmm. Anything fall off sale while processing...? <checks> Nope. But I did forget one that wasn't worth selling - two repayments left. I'll cope.
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Post by loanstar on Mar 12, 2016 10:29:03 GMT
So as we say good bye to Funny Catnip, and watch it sail into the sunset of IFSAs what sort of rates and security are you all looking for? I only ask because over at FE they are testing the water for what would attract new lenders to secured lending. In a recent email there was talk of 8+1 with a low LTV and a borrower with a good track record. To me this is no quiet enough, but I could be considered greedy?
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