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Post by valueinvestor123 on Mar 12, 2016 12:13:12 GMT
Hi, I am considering lowering my exposure to Bondora (and possibly closing the account). It is not very clear what the actual net returns are and the level of bad debt seems unacceptable. Is it better to run down the account (by letting the loans run their course) or put the loans up for sale on secondary market? I presume there is a price to pay for the second option. There is no urgency in selling, I just don't like their (lack of) transparency.
Btw what level of (net) return are people actually getting? I have been investing for about a year and the net return shows up as 18%+ which is difficult to believe given the many late/defaulted loans. The portfolio manager was set on 'balanced'. thanks, vi123
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Post by rahafoorum on Mar 12, 2016 14:19:44 GMT
Selling is relatively time consuming and not the most user friendly process. However, it can be a faster exit for your funds if that's what you're looking for.
If you are looking to maximize the return you'll get, then it's a pretty complex procedure and will require a lot of work. If you're in no hurry though, then feel free to add all Current loans to sales at same mark-up, all overdue loans with some sort of mark-up/discount (this is the trickiest group since it is most likely to have some sort of changes in short timeframes) and defaulted loans with equal discount.
With this approach you will probably sell some loans and the rest will sit on SM until they're cancelled in 30 days or so automatically (or you can remove them earlier yourself if you want to). You can then add them to sales again by reducing the previous price a bit and you'll probably sell some more and then you can repeat the process as many times as it takes.
If you're in a hurry, I'd start at 5% mark-up for current loans, some sort of discount for overdue and a pretty decent discount in double digits (-20..30%ish or so I guess) for defaulted loans and start coming down from there. If you're not in a hurry, you can attempt starting with higher mark-ups/less discounts, but it'll take a lot more times to load off the portfolio.
What your actual returns are, depends totally on what you invested into and when.
My actual return is very high at above 20%, but that's mostly due to old loans where interest rate was not appropriately assigned according to risk, sticking to EST loans only in majority and some more advanced investment techniques that have brought that return. Had I started investing a year ago and/or used the portfolio manager options, I wouldn't even get close to this return.
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Post by valueinvestor123 on Mar 12, 2016 14:58:31 GMT
I am not sure I have enough 'technique' to use the mark up/down options to offload the problematic loans. I was thinking that perhaps the easiest way would be to sell the normal loans on the secondary market (at regular price without mark-ups or -downs: I don't know if this is possible) and then let the problematic loans run their course. (I am not in a hurry to sell). My worry is that the majority of regular loans will eventually become problematic loans (and that's the reason why i am not certain whether they will sell in the secondary market at no discount). Would this 'strategy' work?
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Post by kissmyjazz on Mar 12, 2016 15:45:36 GMT
Defaulted loans bring you very little in terms of the incoming cashflow, as any recovery is usually a long process. So unless you want to sit on your bad loans for full 5 years, sell them first, likely with 20-40% discount. Meanwhile while you are selling your bad loans good loans will bring you interest income that will (partly) cover the losses on bad loans. Bad loans tend to default early, so the longer your loan has stayed current, the less chance of the default. Of course you have to monitor the payment discipline, if it was good before but has become erratic recently, try to sell that loan.
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Post by valueinvestor123 on Mar 12, 2016 15:55:13 GMT
But who will want to buy the bad loans that don't generate any cashflow? Maybe best strategy is just to run everything down naturally, with cashflow from good loans compensating for bad loans at least. I can wait 5 years if recovery rates are reasonable.
If I pause the manager, does it mean it will stop reinvesting cash? (which is what I want) Or is it still running in the background?
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Post by kissmyjazz on Mar 12, 2016 16:21:25 GMT
I think that for the most loans the best strategy is to wait until the loan matures (for Estonian and maybe Finnish loans the recovery is decent, but even with that recovery you will not be made whole 100%, as some people are declared bankrupt, die, commit fraud or have no recoverable assets). For Spanish loans I would sell them now with discount up to 40-50%, if you cannot sell at that price, I would just keep the loan and hope for recovery, Estonian loans I would start selling at 10% discount and go until 30%, Finnish maybe 20-40% is acceptable haircut, if I cannot sell at those discounts, I will wait for recovery. Also consider that average haircut on DCA-assisted recovery is 15-20%, so if you sell with up to 20% discount, it is basically a wash. Anyhow, you'll be surprised what people buy and sell. I definitely have sold some pretty shitty loans for good price. If you decide to stay long-term on the platform, it is better to reinvest the proceeds, otherwise try to liquidate quickly and move some place else. Your money is better off earning some interest, not waiting for recovery.
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p2pmaster
investment is life.
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Post by p2pmaster on Mar 13, 2016 8:16:11 GMT
I had the same question a while ago. Decided to naturally run down the portfolio as it consisted of average quality Estonian loans (99%). I will perform regular withdrawals from the platform until I receive my initial investment.
I might turn go back to Bondora, when they change their model to balance sheet lender as it should improve loans' quality.
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Post by rahafoorum on Mar 13, 2016 8:44:12 GMT
Don't sell current loans at par. They will sell with mark-up in most cases. Selling at par would simply mean that you're realizing your loss and eliminating the future positive cashflow since (as mentioned before) the loans that have been performing perfectly for a while, have a lot less likelyhood of default. In other words, if you keep them, they'll help you reduce your losses, but if you sell, then they're worth more than 0% mark-up because they will likely bring in future cashflow.
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Post by Butch Cassidy on Mar 13, 2016 12:37:02 GMT
I have been letting my portfolio naturally run down for over 6 months & have realised 50% of my initial investment so far, however I actively managed it when growing it; only investing manually in strong prospect loans, quickly selling under performing ones & never using the PM. This means I started with a strong outlook for the future & had a low % of defaults - I do not recognise the discounts that others have suggested loans would sell for, my experience is as follows;
Defaulted Spanish loans needed 85% discount to sell & Estonian ones 70% with Finnish somewhere in between although I had very few. Some Estonians may go with a lower discount but only very slowly, lates will need a lower discount & current may sell for a premium but I rarely sell anything that I think offers value as I tend to keep it to term. I no longer trust the Bondora management so would be happy to be totally out & hopefully show a decent profit, currently dashboard is running at 28% but I think the realistic level will be nearer 20%.
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james
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Post by james on Mar 14, 2016 10:21:17 GMT
I am not sure I have enough 'technique' to use the mark up/down options to offload the problematic loans. I was thinking that perhaps the easiest way would be to sell the normal loans on the secondary market (at regular price without mark-ups or -downs: I don't know if this is possible) Please do not do that. Someone would buy them from you then offer them for sale a few minutes later at 5% or higher mark up. Better for you to get the money and it is easy to set all loans to 5% markup, just use the single box above the list of loans you are selling.
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james
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Post by james on Mar 14, 2016 10:42:12 GMT
Hi, I am considering lowering my exposure to Bondora (and possibly closing the account). It is not very clear what the actual net returns are and the level of bad debt seems unacceptable. Is it better to run down the account (by letting the loans run their course) or put the loans up for sale on secondary market? Because your first worry is bad debt you should try to sell all loans issued in the last three months at 5% mark up. Next group would be loans in the three months before that. Beyond this period look at the default curves based on country and/or credit grade to decide how much closer to present you should be selling. You should be trying to sell loans that are in their high default rate period and that mainly means the youngest loans. This varies depending on country and rating. When all of your loans are one year old or more there is little reason to sell based on high default rate expectation in most cases, look at the curves to decide. Once you have made your decision based on loans with highest default risk, your next decision is to decide whether you think that Bondora the platform will fail during the time while your remaining loans will be taking repayments. If you think that the platform will fail, you can try to sell loans before that happens. Until then you can choose to run off the loans instead of selling. For loans that have defaulted you have a problem. You may want to sell them but there are people who look for loans that have a repayment then buy them below market value by using the price you set before the change in loan value happened. For this reason it may be better to let debt collection work for: 1. At least nine months while debt collection agencies are working 2. As long as it takes to get a court decision (at least in Estonia where it is fast). 3. At least three months after court decision to give time for debt collection based on that decision. 4. Then consider selling the loans that are not making regular payments. After that much time has passed you can be more confident that there will not be a sudden positive change in value that will leave you a victim of the resale market sharks. You will also have probably received most of the money that will be collected on these loans. To help me with these decisions I track numbers like time since stage 3 (court judgment received) and time since last payment.
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Post by rahafoorum on Mar 14, 2016 10:59:34 GMT
For loans that have defaulted you have a problem. You may want to sell them but there are people who look for loans that have a repayment then buy them below market value by using the price you set before the change in loan value happened. You mean that you can then sell the loans at higher price than they should since bondora's UI shows the principal that was collected and paid to DCAs as fees, as still being outstanding and thus price being incorrectly higher due to this fact? Additionally, if you wait for that 9 months, then: a) the loan will sell for bigger discount (most buyers of defaulted loans seem to be looking at this information anyway) b) the time value of money has made the value of that sale even less valuable and in most cases, probably not worth the wait, unless the recovery has been considerable in the meantime on your defaulted loans as a whole.
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Post by kissmyjazz on Mar 14, 2016 12:33:08 GMT
I think there are only two viable strategies: either sell all defaulted loans that show no cashflow as quickly as possible for moderate discounts and reinvest the money to recoup your losses or run your portfolio down the natural way and try to sell only clearly hopeless loans at big discounts (80-90%). I think there should be no argument that you should keep your current loans as long as possible and not sell them at par, only at premium. They bring you positive income and as long as each individual loan stays current and pays with good discipline, it does not matter if the loan was originated in Estonia or Elbonia.
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james
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Post by james on Mar 14, 2016 18:38:50 GMT
For loans that have defaulted you have a problem. You may want to sell them but there are people who look for loans that have a repayment then buy them below market value by using the price you set before the change in loan value happened. You mean that you can then sell the loans at higher price than they should since bondora's UI shows the principal that was collected and paid to DCAs as fees, as still being outstanding and thus price being incorrectly higher due to this fact? No, I mean the loans that are priced for the possibility that there might or might not be debt collection then bought just after successful debt collection at a discount to the combined capital and accrued interest and penalties that is far greater than the discount specified at the time the offer to sell was made. That combination of big change in discount and change in loan state from unknown pay state to making some sort of repayment provides the opportunity for sharks to exploit those trying to sell at earlier stages. You seem to have an incorrect expectation of what will happen sometimes. Today I received a payment of all outstanding capital and some interest and penalties on a loan that defaulted on 2016-02-26. Since all capital was paid that one would have been removed from the secondary market automatically although it is still in debt collection state 1. I removed most of the defaulted loans I have from the secondary market after the previous event, for a loan that defaulted on 2015-12-12. Now I act in general as I have described in this discussion. You may also find it interesting that our past discussions of this while you still worked for Bondora were one of the things that caused me to conclude that I could not trust that Bondora would act in a manner that was ethical or that treated customers fairly. It is what finally persuaded me to start to sell many of the loans I had with Bondora. Later events have demonstrated that I was correct to come to that conclusion, notably the decision of Bondora to announce no fees on the secondary market but then continue to charge them anyway for existing offers, without any systematic repayment. Additionally, if you wait for that 9 months, then: a) the loan will sell for bigger discount (most buyers of defaulted loans seem to be looking at this information anyway) b) the time value of money has made the value of that sale even less valuable and in most cases, probably not worth the wait, unless the recovery has been considerable in the meantime on your defaulted loans as a whole. An individual loan may sell at a bigger discount but for some loans there will have been capital and interest/penalties recovery. You will not lose any of that money to secondary market sharks, instead you will keep it all for yourself. As an ethical matter, it is also desirable not to feed sharks. I would prefer to be able to sell defaulted loans rapidly but the shark risk is too high, so I have now stopped trying to make those earlier sales. The cost of rewarding bad conduct is too high to be worth paying.
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homes119
Member of DD Central
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Post by homes119 on Mar 14, 2016 18:42:58 GMT
I am officially completely sold out of bondora. It took me 5-6 months. I had a pretty simplistic approach which didn't involve me assessing premiums.
Month 1: Sell all loans at 15% premium Month 2: Sell all loans at 12% premium Month 3: Sell all loans at 10% premium Month 4: Sell all loans at 5% premium Month 5: Sell all loans at 2% premium Month 6: Sell the scraps left at par and defaulted at steep discount just undercutting the next best loan on the SM.
The reasons for selling was because I didn't like the dropping interest rates and increasing default rates. Platform growth was slowing, communication was terrible, reliability poor and way too many drastic unstable changes.
I am entirely satisfied with my approach but I had alot of Estonian loans good rated estonian loans (28%) plus. Even at 10% premium they were selling like hot cakes.
The vast majority sold between the 15 and 5 % range. Netted a nice profit. And the best part since I am lazy, was that it took minimum effort compared to pricing each loan one by one.
Do you think Bondora are started turning it around? I think I timed my exit perfectly.
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