r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jun 6, 2017 9:09:17 GMT
I fully expect 3% or 4% of loans to default with no return. My policy is no more than 1% in each loan, so that would still deliver >8% pa. For all its faults I don't think FS is anywhere near that level of default, but FS is very high risk, any financially secure developer would be able to borrow from a bank at half FS rates. Accept we are lending to the financially challenged, commercially stretched and speculative borrowers. Diversify accordingly. BS are lending at under 3% on residential mortgages of 60% LTV. We are getting a substantial risk premium. I do accept that FS is lamentable at communications and pursuing borrowers. 70% LTV is way too high, it should be no higher than 60% IMO. Agree with most of what you say, and in fact I don't think FS do a bad job (generally) at pursuing borrowers. My beef is not at all with this loan proving 'problematic' (and it's not defaulted). In this case it is the content of the communications - several times I have inferred from the updates that the matter is only 'dotting the I's and crossing the T's' away from resolution, only to see the next update suggesting it'll be a while. I think this stems from FS being a little too brief in their updates. i don't think 1 line is generally sufficient to explain something this complicated. I'd like to think I'm generally not too naive when it comes to what you can infer from loan updates but if you re-read the Jan 2nd, April 7th and May 7th updates especially,they seem pretty unequivocal to me. The updates afterwards in each case don't suggest any particular problem, but clearly indicate that the matter is now not shortly to be resolved. In comparison to Lendy generally, FS IMV are very good with updates and I've sung their praises about it previously. I just don't want to see them heading towards the 'stringing along' methodology that Lendy seem to use, rendering their updates almost totally worthless.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jun 19, 2017 8:02:34 GMT
Latest update on these: "Borrower is confident that refinancing will be put in place by the end of the month. As this remains the best option to fully recover funds we continue to work with the borrower and the finance company involved, to move towards a successful conclusion". fundingsecure , whilst I fully understand that allowing the borrower leeway to resolve the issues is plan A and is much preferable to defaulting the loan, can they not/have they not provided documentary evidence of the refinancing in progress? As we're only 10 working days from the end of the month, there must surely already be some written comms with whoever's providing the financing already? I'm all for plan A if it's really on, but I think after a good 4 months of this one sallying back and forth with continually 'just over the horizon' refinancing. it's surely time to insist upon seeing something in writing and not in the borrower's head. |
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jul 11, 2017 7:59:36 GMT
...and we limp into the summer with "The process of refinancing continues - but will be delayed further this month as the first two weeks of July represent the major holiday period in Northern Ireland, with the 12th being one of the major events of the year"
FS translate - The period of the 1st of July through to the first week of September represents the best excuse we have for nothing happening here. Don't worry, we'll find a new 'refinancing partner' after that to tide us through to mid-November onwards (or the 'festive period').
Whilst the Derrys can't compete with the scandal of Whitehaven or the pure duration of Rishton, I think this update now affirms that they're right up there competing with the very best of the FS twilight zone. The Milos Raonic or Grigor Dimitrov of the FS world, biding their time, waiting for their moment in the sun.
Most of my investment is in S****d Rd, which looking back again had danger signs all over it, and is one I would never consider for a moment now. I recall at the time, many moons ago, supply was very limited and anything was flying off the shelves, not that that's an excuse.
Anyway back to whatever it is that I do.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jul 15, 2017 17:12:20 GMT
"No further update available due to the holiday in Northern Ireland this week" Well, at last, a totally spot on update, they said it's NI holiday season so nothing will happen, and lo and behold nothing happened!  I live in hope, but I increasingly can't see a great outcome here. For S***d Road for example, defaulting the loan is probably going to be a financially unpleasant option as they marketed it against the GDV rather than current value, which means their '39%' LTV claim is nonsense. It didn't even have planning permission at the time, so 12% is really poor value. I have to wonder what on earth I was smoking when I put funds to this. Total schoolboy error. At least planning was actually granted somewhere along the line, apparently. I would though unfortunately wager that the seedy gambling den shown in the pic remains safely in place. Just hope that that's not what our borrower has used his quarter of a million from us on! |
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ozboy
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Mine's a Large One! (Snigger, snigger .......)
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Post by ozboy on Jul 15, 2017 17:31:26 GMT
Wednesday July 12th Battle of the Boyne Northern Ireland only.
So ONE Bank Holiday, on a Wednesday, in the middle of the week, is enough excuse to do nothing, zero, for the entire week, and FS accepts that.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jul 15, 2017 18:16:22 GMT
Wednesday July 12th Battle of the Boyne Northern Ireland only. So ONE Bank Holiday, on a Wednesday, in the middle of the week, is enough excuse to do nothing, zero, for the entire week, and FS accepts that. No, no, read the update. "..but will be delayed further this month as the first two weeks of July represent the major holiday period". And you don't even want to ask just how many NI people go on holiday in the second half of July plus August. 
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ozboy
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Mine's a Large One! (Snigger, snigger .......)
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Post by ozboy on Jul 15, 2017 19:39:00 GMT
Well, that's alright then. |
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Aug 9, 2017 13:22:44 GMT
fundingsecure ,whilst I don't share all of Hor's views, I do agree that we have really reached the point of some more concrete action being required or, if it is underway, then communicated to investors, privately if required (a la Turbine). I don't think we've actually been told as of yet any specific reason as to the cause/s of the delay (beyond holidays intervening, 'final discussions' being had, and additional valuations) which given these are 9 months overdue, is quite a stretch of time. It's not surprising therefore that investors are becoming increasingly disgruntled.
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sqh
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Before P2P, savers put a guinea in a piggy bank, now they smash the banks to become guinea pigs.
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Post by sqh on Aug 9, 2017 14:01:16 GMT
@hor1997
I think the problem is that the Housing Association are still busy developing other projects. Our loans are for projects in their pipeline, and the BOI aren't going to finance these until they are shovel ready.
Our Borrower is an intermediary waiting for the Housing Association to start developing his/our sites.
The good news is that the Housing Association has now added one/two of our loans (1205065729 & 2437319925) to their "future development" page, although the number of apartments is somewhat different, 19 not 24.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Aug 9, 2017 14:31:25 GMT
@hor1997 I think the problem is that the Housing Association are still busy developing other projects. Our loans are for projects in their pipeline, and the BOI aren't going to finance these until they are shovel ready. Our Borrower is an intermediary waiting for the Housing Association to start developing his/our sites. The good news is that the Housing Association has now added one/two of our loans (1205065729 & 2437319925) to their "future development" page, although the number of apartments is somewhat different, 19 not 24. That sounds like some good information sqh , thanks for that. The point I take issue with is that that's not what FS are telling us. We were told in April that planning had been approved, and that therefore funds would be released, which they weren't. Since then, its pretty much been a constant state of back and forth with 'the financing company/BOI' and the borrower, with passing mentions of the Housing Association. So, if that is indeed the principal cause of delay, and if there now seems to be some tangible progress on that front for some of the properties, tangible enough for the HA to share publicly, then why not just say it out loud to investors?
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sqh
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Before P2P, savers put a guinea in a piggy bank, now they smash the banks to become guinea pigs.
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Post by sqh on Aug 9, 2017 15:08:14 GMT
@hor1997, r00lish67Loan 7928207063 has not yet been scheduled a start date, but the Housing Association have got a project very nearby due to complete Winter 2017. I guess these contractors will be moving a few yards down the road to our loan, once their existing project is complete. |
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Aug 9, 2017 18:12:31 GMT
@hor1997 I think the problem is that the Housing Association are still busy developing other projects. Our loans are for projects in their pipeline, and the BOI aren't going to finance these until they are shovel ready. Our Borrower is an intermediary waiting for the Housing Association to start developing his/our sites. The good news is that the Housing Association has now added one/two of our loans (1205065729 & 2437319925) to their "future development" page, although the number of apartments is somewhat different, 19 not 24. Honestly I cannot care less about the Housing Association plans. I lent to a specific borrower and not to the association. Works will be delayed? Good. No problem. The borrower gives back 100% of the capital+ interest and applies back in 6 months/1 year time. Why is this not happening?  ? Because he doesn't have the money anymore.
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Post by sannytwist on Aug 10, 2017 0:15:21 GMT
This is a sad example of a p2p loan going bad and a incompetent p2p company doing nothing for the lenders.
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Post by scrooge on Sept 4, 2017 7:36:06 GMT
This is a sad example of a p2p loan going bad and a incompetent p2p company doing nothing for the lenders. An incompetent P2P company who nothing for the lenders on any of their very many dud loans.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Sept 4, 2017 7:54:09 GMT
This is a sad example of a p2p loan going bad and a incompetent p2p company doing nothing for the lenders. An incompetent P2P company who nothing for the lenders on any of their very many dud loans. A little harsh I think there. The last two updates represent the most genuinely promising ones I've seen for quite a while, and I now honestly believe we will see these repaid/refinanced. The reason I'm much more convinced than usual is the phrase "We have received a copy of a formal commitment from BOI to refinance part of the developments" which is in stark contrast to updates like " the borrower advises us....."Also, more generally speaking, FS have recently made a couple of decent recovery/refinances of old loans, so it can and does happen. Before I mark myself too much as a paid-up member of the FSFan club, I would say that the Whitehaven situation is still a nasty stain currently on their reputation, and if you were a significant Turbine investor then you'd probably be very sore right now.
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