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Post by justdabbling on Jun 14, 2016 12:15:51 GMT
Some people may be withdrawing from SS to put money in another currency, as most companies have apparently. In fact I did fantasise about whether that was why that one person seems to be realising cash on all those London properties. If the £ drops 25 per cent he'd make another fortune.
As for property prices in the event of Brexit there is quite a lot of foreign money invested in Uk property as a safe and profitable haven, and that might be in vested elsewhere because of the currency issue, as well as concerns about the housing market itself.
As for the rest, in areas where there is less employment, e.g if companies close their Uk base or move their HQ to an EU country then lower employment in an area might reduce demand for housing.
I saw some research showing that London and Scotland, ironically areas that are considered pro-remain, as less dependent on EU jobs for employment than other areas. University of Gronignen research.
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Post by mrclondon on Jun 14, 2016 12:18:24 GMT
Housing demand in the south east currently out strips supply by a huge margin
www.telegraph.co.uk/property/renting/generation-rent-young-married-pregnant-and-stuck-in-a-house-shar/
leading to inevitable high prices.
No-one living/working in the UK on the date of our withdrawal from the EU will lose that right to continue living/working in the UK, demand for housing is not going evaporate overnight
The brexit process (if we sanction its commencement next week) is not going to be instantaneous, and the 2 year period (extendable to 4 years by agreement with the other 27) allowed by Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty does feel on the tight side.
Its probable that we will remain EU members for around 2 years post a vote for brexit next week. I don't know, but assume, there is little we could do if a few more European passport holders decided to make the short trip to our shores between now and then.
Brexit if we vote for it is the start of a long term project to reshape our position in the world (for better or worse depending on your own point of view). Short term instability in the financial markets is inevitable, but expecting short term real change (again for better or worse) is unrealistic hope / scare-mongering (again depending on your point of view).
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warn
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Post by warn on Jun 14, 2016 12:34:41 GMT
I'm not sure why Bexit alone would trigger a property crash? For much the same reason that a new millennium would cause planes to drop out of the sky, I fancy.
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Post by bracknellboy on Jun 14, 2016 12:37:26 GMT
Housing demand in the south east currently out strips supply by a huge margin
www.telegraph.co.uk/property/renting/generation-rent-young-married-pregnant-and-stuck-in-a-house-shar/
leading to inevitable high prices.
No-one having the right to live/work in the UK on the date of our withdrawal from the EU will lose that right, demand for housing is not going evaporate overnight
The brexit process (if we sanction its commencement next week) is not going to be instantaneous, and the 2 year period (extendable to 4 years by agreement with the other 27) allowed by Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty does feel on the tight side.
Its probable that we will remain EU members for around 2 years post a vote for brexit next week. I don't know, but assume, there is little we could do if a few more European passport holders decided to make the short trip to our shores between now and then.
Brexit if we vote for it is the start of a long term project to reshape our position in the world (for better or worse depending on your own point of view). Short term instability in the financial markets is inevitable, but expecting short term real change (again for better or worse) is unrealistic hope / scare-mongering (again depending on your point of view).
Not sure I would fully agree with that. Even if only a chunk of financial institutions chose to announce medium term plans to move any significant portions of their operations to Frankfurt/Paris then I would expect some reasonably rapid impact.
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Post by retired2005 on Jun 14, 2016 12:41:43 GMT
HA HA !!....remember it well ....
Used to work for a major blue chip company and one guy was employed on a vast salary with the title of Y2K manager to ensure that nothing happened on 1st Jan 2000.
He must have done a great job because ....nothing did!
(in reply to warns post....)
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 14, 2016 12:53:54 GMT
HA HA !!....remember it well .... Used to work for a major blue chip company and one guy was employed on a vast salary with the title of Y2K manager to ensure that nothing happened on 1st Jan 2000. He must have done a great job because ....nothing did! (in reply to warns post....) As somebody who worked in IT in the run-up to Y2K, there certainly would have been severe issues if the preparations hadn't been done well. A lot of money was spent, and - sure - a lot of people milked it. But there was a hell of a lot at stake.
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Post by dualinvestor on Jun 14, 2016 12:54:01 GMT
I don't think it would, except for the FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) being wielded as the major weapon by the 'remainers'. Maybe if umpteen million immigrants all went home .. but no, that isn't going to happen .. however a lot of folks believe property prices are ridiculously inflated (especially in London), with a lot being bought by speculators rather than people wanting to live in them, so maybe there will/would be 'a correction'. Personally I think that would probably be a good thing, the longer the bubble bubbles up the bigger the eventual pop. Rather like Mark Twain reports of the London property crash (death) are premature. I have owned properties in and around London for many years and have fully been expecting a plunge in my wealth on many occasions; however it just ain't happened. I have agreed wholeheartedly with the reasoning and with the exceptions of UK wide falls have been confounded by it not happening. A while ago I gave up predicting it after all my house is somewhere to live not an investment (although initially, rather like PBL20, I had no skin in the game as the Trustee Savings Bank gave me a 100% mortgage, so technically it has given me an infinate return) and have just moved when required. I do think there will be some short term turbulence in the London property market in the event of a Brexit vote next week (take that in the light of my earlier failure to predict anything ) and the bubble may finally burst but the latter won't be because of Leave or Remain but more to do with the aging demographic and falling relative salaries for the young.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 14, 2016 13:00:28 GMT
No-one living/working in the UK on the date of our withdrawal from the EU will lose that right to continue living/working in the UK, demand for housing is not going evaporate overnight It certainly won't, because EU migration is only a very small part of annual population growth, let alone current demand. Plus it's entirely likely that free movement of people will remain after the end of the negotiations. If we go into the EEA, free movement will apply. If whatever deal we agree includes the Treaty of Rome four freedoms, free movement will apply. If we stay further out than either of those scenarios, then it's entirely likely Ireland will leave the CTA and join Schengen - and that's without considering Scotland - which would lead the UK to either face passport-controlled land borders or also join Schengen, so free movement may still apply. That's certainly how it's being sold. Whether the reality will be anything close is another question entirely. If we do vote to leave, then I predict a lot of very disappointed people in 2-5-10-20 years time, when the reality turns out to be very different from the sales pitch. Whether the reality is close to the status quo or negative, the one thing it's unlikely to be in reality is some utopian renaissance.
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lobster
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Post by lobster on Jun 14, 2016 16:26:16 GMT
Yup - Betfair are a good guide imo (better than any of the polls). They have taken about £30 million on this so far.
They reckon there's a 60% chance of REMAIN and therefore a 40% chance of LEAVE (ie Brexit)
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Jun 14, 2016 16:52:10 GMT
I have a gut feeling that you shouldn't trust gut feelings
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Jun 14, 2016 17:40:41 GMT
A fall in house prices may benefit us all in p2p property lending, in the long run. A small correction would be better than a full blown crash, 5 years down the line.
Disclaimer: I was told by my economics lecturer, back in 2000 that property prices were due a crash, I ignored him and bought a property in 2001, and prices have shot up since, especially London. The point is everytime we think prices are overvalued, they go higher.
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Post by bracknellboy on Jun 14, 2016 17:51:09 GMT
I have a gut feeling that you shouldn't trust gut feelings I have a gut feeling that you shouldn't trust gut feelings about gut feelings. Which leaves me gutted. I think.
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lobster
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Post by lobster on Jun 14, 2016 17:51:23 GMT
Well it's well known that you can never get two economists to agree..... which raises the question .... what's the point in economists ?  |
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jonno
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nil satis nisi optimum
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Post by jonno on Jun 14, 2016 17:56:40 GMT
A fall in house prices may benefit us all in p2p property lending, in the long run. A small correction would be better than a full blown crash, 5 years down the line. Disclaimer: I was told by my economics lecturer, back in 2000 that property prices were due a crash, I ignored him and bought a property in 2001, and prices have shot up since, especially London. The point is everytime we think prices are overvalued, they go higher. Agreed. But mainly I'm jealous that you had an economics lecturer in 2000; I had one in 1980! 
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warn
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Post by warn on Jun 14, 2016 18:01:16 GMT
Well it's well known that you can never get two economists to agree..... which raises the question .... what's the point in economists ? , I stuck a "like" on your post, not because I have any feelings about economists one way or the other, but because you typed "raises" instead of "begs". Oh, how the occasional evidence of literacy raises the spirits these days... 
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