shimself
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Post by shimself on Jun 23, 2016 14:45:15 GMT
There is an offer new today-ish 8%IRR over 5 years L***** P****
The investment is to go into proper big generators powered from old cooking oil.
A quick google shows some recent smallish generators being advertised - more like what someone in the sticks might buy. This is an order of magnitude or two bigger scale.
Does anyone know more about this technology, what might go wrong? Is it polluting? (how safe an investment is it)?
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Jun 24, 2016 12:44:47 GMT
I think that LF100 can be used in standard engines.
I suppose that the big unknown is the possibility of (restropective) government action on diesel emissions.
"It has been announced that DEFRA will launch a consultation later this year to legislate for binding emission limits on diesel engines to come into force no later than January 2019. This might capture our engines irrespective of the fact that we do not use diesel and could result in reduced operations or increased costs to reduce emissions – both leading to loss of revenue. We believe, however, that any legislation which comes into force will only be forward- looking and that existing plants will not be affected."
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Jun 24, 2016 14:16:40 GMT
On further reading I've gone off it.
The 8% IRR depends on the loan not being repaid early The repayments and interest are equal every year, so the interest payments as a %age of principal become very high, so I think it's almost inevitable that the borrower would repay the loan and refinance after a few years (once it's been derisked), leaving us with a rate of return significantly below the headline rate.
This is despite a penalty for early repayment. I haven't dived in to doing the proper calculation (not having done anything similar for a decade or more) so I stand to be corrected.
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Jun 24, 2016 14:31:35 GMT
Doesn't the IRR calculation and the possibility of early repayment apply to all (?) debentures on Abundance?
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Jun 25, 2016 12:01:03 GMT
I think that the "repayment charge" described on page 7 of the offer document is designed to ensure that the return % is not less than would have applied had the debenture not been repaid early.
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Jun 25, 2016 22:14:33 GMT
I think that the "repayment charge" described on page 7 of the offer document is designed to ensure that the return % is not less than would have applied had the debenture been repaid early. OK I really ought to do the spreadsheet if I can. But failing that final year interest is 33% of balance early repayment compensation if terminated just before is 10% of that interest That feels like it doesn't achieve full recompense I have asked AG to explain what the compensation does?
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Post by justdabbling on Oct 18, 2016 10:48:33 GMT
I am just wondering whether I have missed an opportunity here. I bought the amount of these debentures that suited me to keep in July and now they are being sold at a 10% premium after less than 4 months. Perhaps next time I will buy some extra with a view to selling.
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pom
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Post by pom on Oct 18, 2016 11:36:51 GMT
I am just wondering whether I have missed an opportunity here. I bought the amount of these debentures that suited me to keep in July and now they are being sold at a 10% premium after less than 4 months. Perhaps next time I will buy some extra with a view to selling. Depends if anyone's actually buying, or someone's just listing them in hope...
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Post by justdabbling on Oct 18, 2016 13:47:51 GMT
I was looking at the Project Trade History which shows actual 'trades' and through October they have ranged from 114% to 110% of purchase price. The overall price to capital ratio is given as 108.9% so the price seems to be going up. It may be that some investors are hoping to put these debentures into an IF ISA from November but 10% still seems excessive.
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pom
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Post by pom on Oct 18, 2016 14:12:56 GMT
I'd be surprised if they're able to transfer existing investments into the ISA...(might not stop people thinking they can do it tho).
Edit - I guess if someone REALLY wanted to get invested then 10% may not be a bad premium to pay on a longer investment (from memory I think that one was expected to average 8% over 7yrs, so still plenty of scope for earnings). As to whether the SM is active enough to make it a regular enough occurrence to be able to count on it as a deliberate strategy tho....
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Post by justdabbling on Oct 18, 2016 14:51:35 GMT
The information about the Abundance ISA does say that they 'expect there will be a way of transferring your existing Debentures into your Abundance ISA. We are working on this at the moment and will update investors when this becomes possible'. I have always thought it strange that investors seem to consistently pay premiums for Abundance debentures, even when it seems that some of them would have already returned some of the loan and so one would expect them to be sold for less than the original investment, but I do wonder whether I have misunderstood something. Perhaps once they are paying out they are 'derisked' and seen as a relatively safe investment.
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pom
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Post by pom on Oct 18, 2016 15:22:08 GMT
The information about the Abundance ISA does say that they 'expect there will be a way of transferring your existing Debentures into your Abundance ISA. We are working on this at the moment and will update investors when this becomes possible'. I have always thought it strange that investors seem to consistently pay premiums for Abundance debentures, even when it seems that some of them would have already returned some of the loan and so one would expect them to be sold for less than the original investment, but I do wonder whether I have misunderstood something. Perhaps once they are paying out they are 'derisked' and seen as a relatively safe investment. Well other platforms all concluded they wouldn't be able to - tho I know Abundance investments are classified differently so maybe there's a chance. "Expect" definitely doesn't mean it's definite tho. I haven't really looked at the SM but surely just because some has paid back it merely means they have less capital available to sell, and any premiums will be based on the remaining capital not the original investment.
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Post by justdabbling on Oct 18, 2016 17:59:52 GMT
Yes, as you say 'expect' is not definite, and I was not aware that other platforms have concluded that it would not be possible to place existing p2p investments inside the IF ISA wrapper. I have not used the SM for Abundance and there is not much of an explanation as to how it works when some payments have already been made, but your explanation does make sense. I don't know what happens to the interest either - perhaps the buyer just has all the next interest payment but it is still surprising what people pay. On the Ecossol project someone has offered £200 for £175 worth of debenture and the interest, there are 12 days left for more bids and the interest paid out in September 2016. I find it all surprising but usually very small amounts so no-one is going to make their fortune.
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Post by brokenbiscuits on Oct 23, 2016 19:26:35 GMT
I am just wondering whether I have missed an opportunity here. I bought the amount of these debentures that suited me to keep in July and now they are being sold at a 10% premium after less than 4 months. Perhaps next time I will buy some extra with a view to selling. It's daft isn't it? People are prepared to throw away 2 years or So's interest buy overpaying on the secondary market. I've stepped up my bidding slightly on the last couple of loans. Partly because I'm a bit more comfortable financially in 2016 than previous years but also because it appears there are quick wins to be had if you want to cash out some or all. I've not gone crazy and gone well above my comfort. Happy to hold for 19 years (or whatever full term is) if that's how it plays out.
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