james
Posts: 2,205
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Post by james on Jun 25, 2016 17:54:16 GMT
Dear Saving Stream Team, Safety factor of investment in property – property has long been a safe haven for UK investors during periods of uncertainty. UK house prices grew considerably faster than UK equities during the last recession. Which recession do you mean and what are the index values for the relevant times from say the Land Registry and your chosen UK equity index for the period? There are several possible candidates, for example 2012 which turned out not to be a real recession but just a data blip, or the one from Q2 2008 through Q2 2009 that was the first to come to my mind and which appears to be the most recent according to the BBC's economy tracker. But you can't mean that one because housing prices dropped by 13% during it. Using the 2008-2009 recession as an example, you might use the UK Land Registry data which gives an index value of 96.06 for April 2008, 96.64 for May 2008 and 83.69 for June 2009. 83.69 is 87.1% of 96.06. For example, you might use the UK FTSE 100 index as reported by Yahoo which gives a value of 6087.30 at close on 26 May 2008 and 4417.90 at close on 29 May 2009. 4417.90 is 72.6% of 6087.30 but not that this is not a total return index, so excludes the value of dividends.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2016 23:46:34 GMT
My view is that things will go slow. The UK might need years to get moving out of the EU, but the uncertainty will not help investments.
So I see very likely a slowdown and probably a recession with a general decrease in the value of properties. But I feel it will be a limited phenomenon, not more than a 10% drop, which all in all should be tolerable for SS. Nobody known for sure the final numbers, but of course now more than ever SS has to be very strict with valuations and take a conservative stance over properties before investing in.
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spyrogyra
Member of DD Central
Posts: 386
Likes: 148
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Post by spyrogyra on Jun 27, 2016 11:26:38 GMT
To avoid panic is paramount. So I think all platforms had prepared 2 statements in advance - one for whichever outcome. And both statements were rosy. But the truth is no one can predict what will happen. Tomorrow. Or in October.
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Post by dodgeydave on Jun 30, 2016 7:33:47 GMT
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Post by zzr600 on Jun 30, 2016 10:08:00 GMT
I don't doubt SS's sincerity, but the situation is rather outside of their hands. 2007/8 wasn't an event, it was the start of a process; 8 years on we have negative interest rates and Brexit is a symptom of the problem, which is far too much cheap money sloshing around the system and excessive levels of debt. Brexit may well catalyse the next series of events, but these events were bound to happen sooner or later. Anyone notice Deutsche Bank share price recently, the same bank that has $70 Trillion of derivatives, many linked to foreign exchange rates, and that has just failed some stress tests? 'Too big to fail' may become 'too big to save'. Or how about the slow motion train wreck that is China? Or possible collapse of Italy's banking system? To suggest these ongoing events will have no impact on UK property prices is naive.
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