|
Post by bengilbert on Apr 13, 2014 10:55:02 GMT
I'm getting ready to launch a p2p information / comparison site that I've been working on for a little while. It isn't live yet but I hope it will be in the next couple of weeks. If any of you would like to take a look, the trial version is up at www.lendgrade.com. Some parts are out of date right now but once it's live, I intend to keep it updated on a daily basis. I'd be very, very grateful for any feedback any of you have about the concept or the content. You can write here or send me a PM.
|
|
|
Post by oldnick on Apr 13, 2014 12:03:57 GMT
Well done bengilbert. I've dipped into a few of the sections and found it to be well written with minimal jargon. This is just what a newbie p2p investor needs - a clarification of the different business models available. I'll be referring people to it if they think they might want to go down that route with their money.
|
|
jimbo
Posts: 234
Likes: 42
|
Post by jimbo on Apr 13, 2014 14:17:21 GMT
Looks good to me too. A crisp, clean and uncluttered site with well-presented information. Good to see you've stuck to the principle of a picture being as good as a thousand words.
|
|
webwiz
Posts: 1,133
Likes: 210
|
Post by webwiz on Apr 13, 2014 16:47:55 GMT
Looks good, but will require a lot of maintenance. Don't you ever take holidays?
Do you mind saying how you plan to make money from the site - assuming this is your intention?
|
|
|
Post by bengilbert on Apr 13, 2014 17:41:41 GMT
oldnick, jimbo, webwiz - thank you very much for the encouraging comments. It's very heartening to hear. Please don't hesitate to point out what you think could be improved, anything you think is unclear or misleading etc. I recognise that there's still a lot of work to do. webwiz - I've thought about the time it will take to maintain and I think it's manageable. I spend quite a lot of time anyway following what's going on in p2p, so it's just a matter of updating the relevant sections. If the site can get a decent number of visitors, it may become worth the while of some of the platforms to add content themselves. For example, something I personally would find useful is a list of deals drawn from several sites with very short introductions to each deal, so I know whether they're worth investigating in detail. The sites themselves might be able to add that sort of content. But I realise that at first I'll have to do it myself. Fair question about making money. I do hope the site can grow into a viable business. But I'm also fascinated and enthusiastic about p2p, so there's an element of pure interest for me. At first, I hope I can generate some income from referrals. I've got some ideas about how the business could further develop, but I'd like to find out what works and what doesn't in its present state first. If p2p grows as I expect it to, I think there's definitely space for an independent site that has something for people of all levels of experience, from newbies to experienced lenders. It's yet to be seen if I'm the person to do it, but I'm going to give it my best shot.
|
|
mikes1531
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,453
Likes: 2,320
|
Post by mikes1531 on Apr 13, 2014 19:00:58 GMT
I'd be very, very grateful for any feedback any of you have about the concept or the content. You can write here or send me a PM. I've taken a brief look, and my first impression was positive. I wish you luck getting the various platforms to keep their data updated, as without that the updating effort could become onerous. Perhaps it will be obvious to other users, but the blue circles that popped up on occasion were a mystery to me at first. I think it would be helpful if you could provide 'tool tips' whenever they appeared, such as "Go to this platform's website" or "Enlarge this graphic". I see that people can register with the website, but it isn't the least bit clear what the purpose of that would be. Is it necessary to post comments/reviews or contribute to the forum? In any case, this sort of info probably ought to be available from the registration page. I also didn't find any obvious link to a Privacy Policy, though I'll admit I didn't make a thorough search. Finally, I'll point out a small typo. It's at the end of the fourth paragraph of the Wellesley review. "if it because necessary" Best of luck with the website. I'm sure many people will find it to be helpful.
|
|
james
Posts: 2,205
Likes: 955
|
Post by james on Apr 13, 2014 20:45:19 GMT
I hope you know that you need and FCA registration if you get any income from this? There are possible criminal penalties for those who make money from financial comparison sites without being registered. To be registered you will need to document your internal processes for keeping the information accurate and up to date. You are making money if you get referral fees even if the income is less than the cost of operating the site. I don't know whether there are the same sort of minimal capital requirements that apply to some other types of firm. If you are not making money there is no such requirement. Sadly these new requirements have already caused one very useful credit card comparison site to remove all of its revenue generating and card comparison information because of the costs and hassle of complying with FCA requirements. So we as consumers end up suffering because of the abuses of the worst of the for-profit places and what the FCA does to try to control them. Moving on to less sad things, your graphic that shows borrowers paying 12% and lenders receiving 1% is probably misleading. Consider things like this " I was just quoted a fee of £530 on a 3 year loan for £3800! The crazy part was when it said your interest rate is 7% and after the fee is included, your Total APR will be 17.1%!!!". So in that case the lenders would get more like 35% of what the borrower is paying rather than the 92% suggested by your picture (assuming 6% goes to lenders after 1% lender fee). The borrower doesn't even get back any of the fee if they overpay or pay the loan off early. That P2P place varies the charges with each borrower so it's hard to know what the split is overall. It would be really interesting to have a table that shows how much lenders get of the amount that borrowers pay. This statement is untrue: "Lenders should only be at risk of losing money if default rates on the personal loans made on Zopa go significantly higher than they have been in the past". Zopa offers the ability to resell loans and if that is done when interest rates are higher, those who sell their loans will suffer a capital loss sufficient to give the buyer the current market interest rate. Double the interest rate and the borrower loses half of the money they sell. The loss depends on the time remaining and amount of subsidy required.For all P2x there are also the risks associated with lack of FSCS protection, from fraud, P2P provider insolvency and assorted other nastiness that we all prefer to hope won't ever happen. A major screwup in something like loan annual statements could even put the P2x place out of business because it's illegal to charge interest to a consumer for the year covered by an annual statement with errors in things like amounts remaining to be paid. Some banks have had to make large refunds to consumers after getting this wrong or even just missing some required words. Lenders are at risk of these things from the moment they lend their money, either if the nastiness happens or something causes them to have to sell. Back to Zopa, this is not consistent with your table "default rates did go up, but even loans made in the worst years had a default rate of only roughly 2.5% per year" while the table shows a 5.5% default rate in 2007/8. That year was particularly nasty because it was in 2008 that lenders first discovered that what Zopa had been saying about losses being deductible from interest wasn't right (or was it 2009, I forget). This is probably untrue: "Since Zopa introduced their Safeguard Fund in 2013, no lenders have lost money" and "No lenders making loans covered by the Safeguard Fund have lost any money". I don't know what you intended with your not lose money text. I usually take a statement like that to mean not lose any money, not just making more from the good loans than lost on the bad ones. I've lost money on a few loans at Bondora even though my interest income makes me way into profit overall, maybe 25 times as much interest as capital in defaulted loans, ignoring potential future recoveries. There are still loans that are not covered by Safeguard and lenders can lose money on those. I think that Zopa uses the payments minus defaults method and ignores inconvenient lenders with less than a few hundred loans and unlucky default patterns. Safeguard should make this all moot in the fullness of time, as older loans and arrangements on them end, though it'll probably take more than ten years for these old loans to go away. Even on loans covered by Safeguard it's likely that some lenders on Safeguarded loans have issued loans at one rate then sold at a higher rate and lost money as a result of selling. Not many and probably not much given the overall downward rate trend, but it's likely. I've been pretty impressed with Wellesley. Their security structure and their principals being at risk before other lenders is very, very good. They also seem familiar with the FCA client money rules, a really good thing, though I don't know whether they now cover p2x or not. One big fund supermarket had to pay a large fine for getting this wrong for years.
|
|
|
Post by bengilbert on Apr 13, 2014 22:11:24 GMT
mikes1531 - thanks for the comments. The blue circles actually shouldn't be appearing - it depends on the web browser used, I'll take a look into it and try to get them removed from all browsers. On registration: at present you can leave a review without being registered but need to be registered to post in the forum. The user and registration system at present is undeveloped - things like a privacy policy, forum rules etc will be added before it is live. I agree it needs to be made clearer. james - I really appreciate the criticism and see your point of view on several of the points you make. I'll write in more detail tomorrow but, very briefly -I agree that it's worth being more precise in the wording on losses, and that it is possible to lose money through secondary market sales. I actually used wording that reflected this in an earlier version and changed it for simplicity, I will revise it to be more accurate. -I also agree that it's important to draw attention to platform risks. -The table on default rates gives figures for defaults over the total course of loans, thus the annual rate will be lower. -I will revise the wording about Safeguard to be more accurate. I genuinely appreciate this sort of close criticism - it is a great help in improving the accuracy of what is featured, so thanks for taking the time.
|
|
mikes1531
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,453
Likes: 2,320
|
Post by mikes1531 on Apr 14, 2014 2:40:12 GMT
Double the interest rate and the borrower loses half of the money they sell. I can't argue with most of what james wrote, but the above statement is not true. As I explained a couple days ago on the Zopa forum... I accept that if interest rates were to go to 10% then RR-ing lenders would have to pay the lenders receiving the loans a significant 'adjustment' to take their 5% loans, but I think the suggestion that there was "a potential to cause a 50% loss" is a gross overestimate. If a lender had a 5% loan disbursed today and rates went to 10% tomorrow, then the new lender would be paid an adjustment which would be the difference in the rates multiplied by the term. In this example, that would be 5% x 5 years, or 25%. And that, in my view, is about the worst case. In reality, rates are unlikely to rise that far or that quickly. I'd think that it's more likely that the maximum adjustment would be 2-3% times 2-3 years, which would be 4-9% of the capital sum. That, of course is JMHO. And I'm certainly not a financial advisor or economics expert!
|
|
|
Post by bengilbert on Apr 14, 2014 15:23:44 GMT
james – here's a slightly more detailed response to your comments: Introductory graphics – I'm not sure which one you're writing about since I don't think any show a 12% / 1% split but I take your point that these figures will be very different on different sites. There are certainly sites where lenders receive a much lower % of the amount borrowers pay (possibly for entirely justified reasons, eg higher costs to the platform in sourcing and processing deals). Risk of losing money – I agree that platform risks should be more prominent and I have updated the wording to reflect this. (Originally, the 'should' was intended as a nod to this, but I agree it should be more explicit). I've also made the possibility of secondary market losses more explicit. Default rates – as I noted, the table shows total default losses to date, the annualized figure is therefore lower. I've made this clearer on the table. Safeguard Fund – you are quite right, the wording was misleading, since there are many lenders holding pre-Safeguard loans. I've updated this. Again, thanks a lot for pointing all those things out.
|
|
|
Post by wiseclerk on Apr 14, 2014 16:46:25 GMT
Hi Ben,
great that you are live now. Lots of detailed information and presented in a well structured way. I am looking forward to read your future articles
Claus
|
|
james
Posts: 2,205
Likes: 955
|
Post by james on Apr 14, 2014 19:04:22 GMT
Double the interest rate and the borrower loses half of the money they sell. I can't argue with most of what james wrote, but the above statement is not true. As I explained a couple days ago on the Zopa forum... I accept that if interest rates were to go to 10% then RR-ing lenders would have to pay the lenders receiving the loans a significant 'adjustment' to take their 5% loans, but I think the suggestion that there was "a potential to cause a 50% loss" is a gross overestimate. If a lender had a 5% loan disbursed today and rates went to 10% tomorrow, then the new lender would be paid an adjustment which would be the difference in the rates multiplied by the term. In this example, that would be 5% x 5 years, or 25%. And that, in my view, is about the worst case. In reality, rates are unlikely to rise that far or that quickly. I'd think that it's more likely that the maximum adjustment would be 2-3% times 2-3 years, which would be 4-9% of the capital sum. That, of course is JMHO. And I'm certainly not a financial advisor or economics expert! Thanks for the correction. You're right that it takes more than doubling the interest rate to cause a loss of 50% of the amount sold. A 50% loss is what it would be for a perpetual corporate or government bond with no end date and no capital repayments. In the case of personal loans there is both an end date and capital repayments and both will reduce the actual subsidy required. I'll see what I can do to get a more accurate calculation of the possible loss because I think that even your better calculation overstated the potential loss by not allowing for the capital repayments. Fortunately my main point was that there can be a capital loss and that's right, even though I got the potential loss amount wrong. Please do correct me if you see me making another mistake about something, I appreciate the accuracy help!
|
|
|
Post by chielamangus on Apr 17, 2014 13:48:38 GMT
Hi, Ben. A couple of things: I DID reply to your PM but when I hit the return/enter key the whole thing disappeared, and i did not have the patience or time to redo it. Now with summer as good as here I won't have time to look at it again before winter (unless we have a summer like the last one).
Which leads on to my next point and is related to your new site. Unlike you, I'm not sure that P2P has as bright a future as you think. Once conditions return to normal and one can pick up 3-6 per cent p.a through a BS or bank, how many people are going to go through the fag of daily monitoring and assessing of current and new investments? Yes, there will be a hardy few - mostly those that haunt these forums and enjoy the entire activity - but how important are these people in the scheme of things? I don't know but I do see large sums of money on FC being "invested" at the lowest possible interest rate for each risk band, suggesting there are masses out there who don't know what they're doing or don't want to spend any time trying to get a better return.
Most people, I am certain, have no idea what rate of return they are getting and they probably think in terms of the headline rate which is quite misleading. Once they see in £p how much they actually getting, and compare it with a conventional BS Bond - when normal times return, of course - I think they will leave P2P in droves. While the P2P turnover is expanding rapidly at present, I see only rationalisation and a niche investment platform for a small minority in the future.
Anyway, all the best with your site.
|
|
j
Member of DD Central
Penguins are very misunderstood!
Posts: 2,188
Likes: 540
|
Post by j on Apr 17, 2014 16:36:11 GMT
Have had a very quick glance & like the simplistic, non-cluttered layout. Easy to find where you need to go when looking for info. Will be back with more in-depth comments after making time to look properly through the site. well done
|
|
|
Post by bengilbert on Apr 18, 2014 12:01:14 GMT
chielamangus – I don't pretend to know what will happen to p2p. I came to p2p because I decided that some loans offered a really outstanding return relative to the risks, and one reason I see a strong future for p2p is simply that I believe other people will think along the same lines as I do. Also, I was very sceptical at first, which leads me to believe that there are other people who don't trust it now but who, with time, will come around to investing. If p2p sites can operate with lower costs than banks, I don't see why they shouldn't continue to offer lenders good returns, by giving them access to the types of deals that banks lend profitably on. I agree that, right now, the market isn't efficient. I think the rates at which deals go often don't reflect the risks on them. I also agree that, with time, a lot of people will work out that they aren't doing as well as they thought, and will stop lending, or change how they lend. This seems like a good thing to me – the market will become more efficient as people stop lending at rates that are too low. It's possible that some combination of events – rates rising, some p2p scandal, general loss of enthusiasm after people get lower returns than they expected – will lead to the number of lenders levelling off or falling. But I think that, in this case, other agents will get involved – institutional investors of some sort, most likely. I do agree that there are all sorts of inefficiencies in how things work at present, which might end up limiting the appeal of p2p, including the time costs you talk about. But I think that just creates space for innovation in developing products and services which reduce these costs. All this is assuming that p2p can offer good risk-adjusted returns. If it can't, then it has only a small niche future.
|
|