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Post by martin44 on Aug 29, 2016 21:42:50 GMT
i should have said "safe loans" i agree 80 ish available.. how many are safe?
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Aug 29, 2016 22:04:52 GMT
i should have said "safe loans" i agree 80 ish available.. how many are safe? Depends on definition of safe! There are less than 40 loans with 90+days remaining but over 60 with positive terms. Personally I have about the same number as you
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mh
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Post by mh on Aug 30, 2016 12:22:53 GMT
I'd like to go back to Martin44's original post and speak up in favour of having fewer, but better quality, loans.
I have only 8 loans with SS in total, but they are all, in my opinion, in the "least risky" category. My maximum percentage exposure is 32% in one loan, DFL004.
As I see it, diversification into lots of small loans is fine if someone has little choice (due to lack of availability) about which loans to invest in, or doesn't feel comfortable about making a choice between higher and lower risk loans. But if you do have confidence that you can distinguish between higher and lower risk loans, then it is silly to leave, or put, your money into loans which have a higher risk just for the sake of "diversity". On other platforms the degree of risk is reflected in the rate of return; but on SS the return is the same for every loan, so be ruthless and prune out the more risky ones you hold. Perhaps I wouldn't go down to five, but a dozen would be about right.
Obviously the criteria for choosing the "lower risk" loans are going to change over time (negatively as the remaining term gets shorter, or positively if you can see progress on a scheme under construction) and will also depend on the state of the secondary market. For me, the basic question is whether you can sell the loan parts you have whenever you want to. The second question is whether the LTV is low enough to be sure (within reason) that you will get your money back if the loan does default.
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littleoldlady
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Running down all platforms due to age
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Post by littleoldlady on Aug 30, 2016 12:29:59 GMT
It's just as well that I personally do not follow this strategy, and instead rely on diversification. I thought PBL081 was one of the safest loans, and based on the information available to us at the time I still think that was reasonable. If you rely on your own DD you are vulnerable to things not being what they seem.
If there is anyone who can honestly say that they avoided PBL081 and PBL020 through DD please divulge your reasoning to those of us who are not so clever.
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mh
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Post by mh on Aug 30, 2016 12:52:43 GMT
As I've only been investing through SS for a few months, investing in PBL020 was a non-starter because of the term remaining, even although it wasn't in default when I started.
I don't think it's a matter of being particularly "clever", littleoldlady. For PBL081, the question I would ask about it, or any other loan, is "What makes this stand out as something special?" To me, it is a completely ordinary 70% LTV loan, which only ever had 6 months to run.
Perhaps I would have bought into it six months ago; but only if I had money that I was itching to invest and couldn't put into better loans ... and even then I would have been looking to sell as soon as I could buy something better to replace it with.
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MarkT
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Post by MarkT on Aug 30, 2016 12:59:52 GMT
It's just as well that I personally do not follow this strategy, and instead rely on diversification. I thought PBL081 was one of the safest loans, and based on the information available to us at the time I still think that was reasonable. If you rely on your own DD you are vulnerable to things not being what they seem. If there is anyone who can honestly say that they avoided PBL081 and PBL020 through DD please divulge your reasoning to those of us who are not so clever. I must admit I have only, briefly, held PBL 081. PBL 020 went into default shortly after I joined SS and as it was already overdue, as a newbie, I did not buy. With PBL 081 I have always thought it appeared poor value compared to other, similar, properties for sale in the area. As such it seemed that the valuation may have been a bit optimistic for security purposes. For that reason alone I did not hold onto the loan for very long. Post purchase DD. Not very sophisticated, I know, and, as it turns out, not actually the problem but that was just my take.
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fp
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Post by fp on Aug 30, 2016 17:18:46 GMT
It's just as well that I personally do not follow this strategy, and instead rely on diversification. I thought PBL081 was one of the safest loans, and based on the information available to us at the time I still think that was reasonable. If you rely on your own DD you are vulnerable to things not being what they seem. If there is anyone who can honestly say that they avoided PBL081 and PBL020 through DD please divulge your reasoning to those of us who are not so clever. I never touched PBL081, despite first going in to SS with a "diversification is the key" attitude. It didn't look right, making alterations to the property on the promise of a sale with no deposit and no concrete terms in place is not the way to do things, contracts should be drawn up and some payment passing hands before anything like this is done, to do it without that "formality" presented the borrower as lacklustre or desperate in my eyes. For me it would have been better to agree a sale price in its current state, along with a cost to do the conversion work as an addition and sign contracts on that basis. I have my own business, and part of it entails the manufacture and supply of certain items. You can come along to my place, pick something "off the shelf" and take it away, or if you are wanting something more specific in size, or a bit out of the norm we will make it for you to your specification. We agree a price, I tell you how long it will take and I take payment before anything is done, this avoids the option of the buyer "having a change of mind" or not going through with the deal once it is made or generally just not turning up to collect it when done. I do this for obvious reasons, so for someone playing about with something worth a few million instead of a few hundred quid (as I do) to be knocking this place about with no real commitment rang some really big alarm bells... and this was before I learnt how any information on SS should be taken with a pinch of salt.
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jonbvn
Member of DD Central
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Post by jonbvn on Aug 30, 2016 22:47:34 GMT
It's just as well that I personally do not follow this strategy, and instead rely on diversification. I thought PBL081 was one of the safest loans, and based on the information available to us at the time I still think that was reasonable. If you rely on your own DD you are vulnerable to things not being what they seem. If there is anyone who can honestly say that they avoided PBL081 and PBL020 through DD please divulge your reasoning to those of us who are not so clever. I never touched PBL081, despite first going in to SS with a "diversification is the key" attitude. It didn't look right, making alterations to the property on the promise of a sale with no deposit and no concrete terms in place is not the way to do things, contracts should be drawn up and some payment passing hands before anything like this is done...... But surely that is the whole point of bridging finance, i.e. when things are not quite so certain? If contracts and various other issues were in place, the borrower would not be paying 18% interest.
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fp
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Post by fp on Aug 31, 2016 7:15:33 GMT
I never touched PBL081, despite first going in to SS with a "diversification is the key" attitude. It didn't look right, making alterations to the property on the promise of a sale with no deposit and no concrete terms in place is not the way to do things, contracts should be drawn up and some payment passing hands before anything like this is done...... But surely that is the whole point of bridging finance, i.e. when things are not quite so certain? If contracts and various other issues were in place, the borrower would not be paying 18% interest. I think there is a little more to bridging loans than that, but irrespective of this, if your gut feeling tells you a loan is bad for whatever reason, be it personal or otherwise you shouldn't invest.
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Post by dualinvestor on Aug 31, 2016 7:32:54 GMT
I never touched PBL081, despite first going in to SS with a "diversification is the key" attitude. It didn't look right, making alterations to the property on the promise of a sale with no deposit and no concrete terms in place is not the way to do things, contracts should be drawn up and some payment passing hands before anything like this is done...... But surely that is the whole point of bridging finance, i.e. when things are not quite so certain? If contracts and various other issues were in place, the borrower would not be paying 18% interest. Although this is not consumer credit, if the rules for calculating APR were utilised in SS loans it would be significantly higher than 18%, more like 36%, because the interest is deducted from the advance and retained by SS for payment to the lenders, this makes the platform particularly attractive to some lenders. By comparison the approximate APR for secured loans from conventional sources would be below 10%, it is therefore reasonable to assume that for many borrowers SS is the "lender of last resort" because they cannot get finance elsewhere. A cursory glance at the Due Diligence here and superficial examination of the borrowers/introducing brokers would confirm this in a lot, but not all cases.
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Post by spareapennyor2 on Aug 31, 2016 7:46:51 GMT
a different point of view why i didn't sell about a month ago all SM backed up couldn't see a sell moving in a day or two / would be OK to go to the end / wait until SM was moving again after the update no hope of selling any time soon it,s a game of pass the parcel looks like i have the parcel a small one
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jimbob
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Post by jimbob on Aug 31, 2016 8:53:23 GMT
I'm over 52 loans.
Who knows what will default ?
My exposure to the "available" loans is ~ 1% of my SS book.
No 81, 20 or 77-80 in my portfolio.
Happy with this at the moment.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2016 10:37:05 GMT
I don't think there are many good loans, only a range of bad or poor loans. I see the process as one of deselection rather than selection. Hence I expect to discard at least half of what I see.
Out of the remaining poor loans I will invest up to 2% and sometimes 4% in these really good poor loans, then spread the rest of the money evenly amongst the rest.
Diversification is a known tool and is worth using but you have to recognise the complexity/comparison of say a 5 year illiquid loan compared to a 1/2 yearly liquid loan and you have to manage investment efficiency with risk management.
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Post by chielamangus on Aug 31, 2016 12:01:42 GMT
a different point of view why i didn't sell about a month ago all SM backed up couldn't see a sell moving in a day or two / would be OK to go to the end / wait until SM was moving again after the update no hope of selling any time soon it,s a game of pass the parcel looks like i have the parcel a small one Yes, that is the game here. But inside the parcel is possibly a time bomb, rather than a gift. But you get points for holding on to the parcel (just as in the party game one holds the parcel a little longer, hoping the music will stop). So a much more difficult game to play. Hold on to the parcel too long and it could blow up in your face. Now if only we knew which parcels contained the bombs!
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Aug 31, 2016 12:37:18 GMT
/mod hat off ..
Be nice if the timers were more visible / believable too. 8>.
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