TheDriver
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Post by TheDriver on Oct 14, 2016 22:36:11 GMT
I've been looking at LC's new Statistics page, and am puzzled about the last section; firstly, although it is titled "Arrears", it also shows Bad Debts. The latter is quoted at 0.83%, which seems believable; however, loans over 45 days late are stated at 0.54%, whereas the Arrears level on my reasonably-diversified original investments is about 5%!
Looking further into the loanbook I can see more than 3 times as much in Arrears than declared Losses, so the "Actual Arrears Rate" for 2015 probably exceeds 2.5% - which aligns much closer to my experience, but doesn't look as attractive to would-be investors!
Has anyone else yet analysed any of these figures, or understand the meaning of Default?
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Oct 15, 2016 6:23:22 GMT
The description of Arrears says "This is the total outstanding loan principal repayments that are more than 45 days late but not declared as a capital loss, as a percentage of the amount lent in the calendar". So I presume it's only counting capital sums that should have been repaid by now (but have not) rather than the total capital remaining in the loan. An odd statistic to choose, IMO, versus "Loans in arrears"
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TheDriver
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Post by TheDriver on Oct 15, 2016 15:31:15 GMT
I agree it's certainly odd, and not clear or accurate - in fact it's misleading. As far as I'm concerned once a loan in default none of the outstanding capital is available to me - viz the SM (Loan Exchange) is disabled for that loan. If 5 payments have been missed I think it unlikely that the next 15 will turn up in my account, so I will resign myself to the hit whilst hoping for some recovery later.
Also, just above it says arrears are: "The total of loan repayments . . . " instead of ". . . outstanding loan principal repayments . . . ", and as a percentage of: "outstanding amounts of loans originated" rather than "amount lent" in the year - clear as mud, and probably more meaningless!
Obviously changes are needed for clarity and consistency, to give some transparency to the situation.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Oct 17, 2016 8:26:10 GMT
Whilst acknowledging that statistics are there to be massaged into suitable shape by whomever has an agenda to use them (and to some extent that's fine), the current variety of statistics on LC's page advising me that the actual annual return for each year is exceeding what they forecast, and the banner on the top of this very forum telling me that "Our investors earned 8.1% average in the last 12 months" seems, to put it mildly, slightly questionable.
On a separate thread here, we have relatively/highly experienced P2P investors who are debating whether they will actually be able to achieve a nil % return despite having being given a welcome bonus of £150 because of the pure quantity of loans late/in arrears/defaulted.
I'm guessing that the 8.1% return is also using the twisted logic of only deducting capital losses that have been incurred so far, as opposed to writing off loans which are clearly non-performing..?
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Oct 17, 2016 9:02:48 GMT
My XIRR over the last 13 months is 19.04% which reduces to 7.68% if I deduct the promotion and allow for 50% losses on AB&R (made 4/24 payments) and LGBBL (16/36).
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ablender
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Post by ablender on Oct 17, 2016 9:13:02 GMT
My XIRR over the last 13 months is 19.04% which reduces to 7.68% if I deduct the promotion and allow for 50% losses on AB&R (made 4/24 payments) and LGBBL (16/36). Aren't you lucky . . . but wait there is still to come. I am seriously concerned about this platform and its operations in general.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 17, 2016 9:40:07 GMT
My XIRR over the last 13 months is 19.04% which reduces to 7.68% if I deduct the promotion and allow for 50% losses on AB&R (made 4/24 payments) and LGBBL (16/36). Aren't you lucky . . . but wait there is still to come. I am seriously concerned about this platform and its operations in general. I'm half hoping they decide to cut their losses, close the platform, and just pay all accounts off.
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ablender
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Post by ablender on Oct 17, 2016 9:41:10 GMT
Aren't you lucky . . . but wait there is still to come. I am seriously concerned about this platform and its operations in general. I'm half hoping they decide to cut their losses, close the platform, and just pay all accounts off. I think that is wishful thinking. If they close the platform they will leave us hanging and that is not good. Just to make it clear, I did not hear any rumours that they are closing. I think they are still up for a fight.
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Oct 17, 2016 9:58:57 GMT
According to the loan book, out of 92 loans, 9 are fully repaid, one was a loss, 3 are in arrears, and 79 are live and paying.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Oct 17, 2016 10:04:28 GMT
They're going to have to fight an awful lot harder. Their latest loan offering has been sitting on the shelf for 10 days, and for the majority of that time on it's own, and yet has achieved a shade over £9k funded with a target of £93k. Even then, I recognise one of the mysterious 'unconnected 3rd parties' names bidding for £840 of that and I haven't been paying enough attention to know whether "R****83"'s £1k bid is also one of them.
In contrast, FC have (just about) filled a £35k B loan launched an hour ago, disregarding the 20 or so other loans available on the PM. Covering all PM loans, they have probably literally funded more than LC have achieved in the last 10 days in the 5 minutes since I started writing this.
That's a shame, and it really shouldn't be the case.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 17, 2016 10:06:02 GMT
According to the loan book, out of 92 loans, 9 are fully repaid, one was a loss, 3 are in arrears, and 79 are live and paying. A****o is one of the three officially in arrears, not defaulted. Yet? L***a G***e is currently officially in the "live and paying" category, since no payments have been missed, but it's declaring insolvency. K***b*r is also currently "live and paying", but suspended, since it's allegedly due to repay this month. Others may also be green but unsellable.
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TheDriver
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Post by TheDriver on Oct 17, 2016 11:00:46 GMT
In addition, L********o Limited are still suspended until receipt of next payment, and C******* I*** are a week overdue on their promised late payment.
So that's at least another 4 of the 79 which are not actually LIVE by any "transparent" definition :-(
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Oct 17, 2016 11:04:09 GMT
According to the loan book, out of 92 loans, 9 are fully repaid, one was a loss, 3 are in arrears, and 79 are live and paying. A****o is one of the three officially in arrears, not defaulted. Yet? L***a G***e is currently officially in the "live and paying" category, since no payments have been missed, but it's declaring insolvency. K***b*r is also currently "live and paying", but suspended, since it's allegedly due to repay this month. Others may also be green but unsellable. Not forgetting the Scottish pub's 13 day (so far) delay on its second payment which hasn't been declared in arrears as of yet, but is at least partially highlighted in red on the website to signify 'not good' I think. Even with those added, it doesn't seem as awful as it somehow feels. ....I was just starting to write a long and typically whiny "why don't LC just...." type comment. But I don't see the point. They seem to have elected to disregard the majority of practices which have seen so many platforms succeed so far, despite us telling them and despite their competitors very plainly showing them by streaking into the distance. They can't even blame it on being the new kid on the block - Collateral for one have simply observed what's working elsewhere, and then listened to this forum for the bits that haven't worked so well, and are growing very rapidly. Why are they willing just to bury their heads in the sand?
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Post by lionelrichtea on Oct 17, 2016 11:42:01 GMT
A****o is one of the three officially in arrears, not defaulted. Yet? L***a G***e is currently officially in the "live and paying" category, since no payments have been missed, but it's declaring insolvency. K***b*r is also currently "live and paying", but suspended, since it's allegedly due to repay this month. Others may also be green but unsellable. ....I was just starting to write a long and typically whiny "why don't LC just...." type comment. But I don't see the point. They seem to have elected to disregard the majority of practices which have seen so many platforms succeed so far, despite us telling them and despite their competitors very plainly showing them by streaking into the distance. They can't even blame it on being the new kid on the block - Collateral for one have simply observed what's working elsewhere, and then listened to this forum for the bits that haven't worked so well, and are growing very rapidly. Why are they willing just to bury their heads in the sand? But...but...they have a mobile app!!!!
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 17, 2016 12:43:43 GMT
But...but...they have a mobile app!!!! ...for one brand of mobile comprising 15% of the market...
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