GeorgeT
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Post by GeorgeT on Apr 20, 2017 22:55:17 GMT
Thanks and fair comment.
I have been slightly stung myself this week in that I have a number of loan parts up for sale with 60 plus days to run and they are not shifting much at the moment which means I am going to have to transfer more money across then I wanted to.
As was stated in another thread it does seem that 100 days is the new 60 days in terms of liquidity.
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elliotn
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Post by elliotn on Apr 21, 2017 0:08:29 GMT
P2P is not like the stock exchange or currency trading where the value of the investment can seriously fluctuate in almost no time at all. Here, the investment value is fixed and not affected by confidence in the market. Yes, the SM affects confidence in our ability to get out if we think a loan is going bad, but it doesn't affect the value of the investment, only the risk This is the main reason I use primarily p2p for investmtens but I'm revisiting this - in shares there will be a future rally, in a distressed p2p sale a potential, permanent capital loss.
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mickj
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Post by mickj on Apr 21, 2017 7:26:31 GMT
8.30 this morning, 21st April : £2,553,824.00 available on the SM over 73 loans. Still the £363,392.00 for sale under the default tab.
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Post by rb5286 on Apr 21, 2017 7:40:06 GMT
P2P is not like the stock exchange or currency trading where the value of the investment can seriously fluctuate in almost no time at all. Here, the investment value is fixed and not affected by confidence in the market. Yes, the SM affects confidence in our ability to get out if we think a loan is going bad, but it doesn't affect the value of the investment, only the risk This is the main reason I use primarily p2p for investmtens but I'm revisiting this - in shares there will be a future rally, in a distressed p2p sale a potential, permanent capital loss. That's what I'm waiting on - the next big crash in the markets (20% - 50%) then I'm ploughing into index funds. I still invest in index funds now, but when everyone is selling, I'll be buying :-) Shares have ALWAYS recovered past initial losses throughout history. If they don't then the world has went to hell in a hand basket, so money will be the least of my worries!
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seeingred
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Post by seeingred on Apr 21, 2017 7:54:04 GMT
"in shares there will be a future rally, in a distressed p2p sale a potential, permanent capital loss."
In shares taken as an average over markets and using history as a guide, yes.
It may not always be like that.
individual shares can be just as risky as P2P - Marconi for example, and one or two banks.
Index trackers - OK over long term if you believe in re-runs of history but you might be dead before it happens.
Hindsight always produces the correct analysis.
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lobster
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Post by lobster on Apr 21, 2017 8:53:53 GMT
This is the main reason I use primarily p2p for investmtens but I'm revisiting this - in shares there will be a future rally, in a distressed p2p sale a potential, permanent capital loss. That's what I'm waiting on - the next big crash in the markets (20% - 50%) then I'm ploughing into index funds. I still invest in index funds now, but when everyone is selling, I'll be buying :-) Shares have ALWAYS recovered past initial losses throughout history. If they don't then the world has went to hell in a hand basket, so money will be the least of my worries! Mmm, the main Japanese share Index , the Nikkei 225 was approx 37,000 at its high, fully 28 years ago in 1989. Now it's about half that level at 18,600.
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littleoldlady
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Running down all platforms due to age
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Post by littleoldlady on Apr 21, 2017 9:19:39 GMT
ISTM that indexes always exaggerate the performance of the market, because shares that are doing badly are dropped out and are replaced by others that are doing well. What would a proportional portfolio of the shares which constituted the FTSE100 when it was launched at 100 be worth today? Hardly any of them are still trading having gone bust or been taken over or merged, but in theory it should be possible to calculate the current value of that portfolio. I doubt that it would be 71 times greater.
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dandy
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Post by dandy on Apr 21, 2017 9:31:54 GMT
FWIW Warren Buffet said we should see DOW 100,000 in our generation - easy life
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Post by peregrine on Apr 21, 2017 13:25:40 GMT
What is going on with the SM. I have quite a few loan parts for sale and none of them are shifting.
Never seen anything like this in the 18 months or so I've been investing.
Is this a blip or the new normal?
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MarkT
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Post by MarkT on Apr 21, 2017 13:29:10 GMT
What is going on with the SM. I have quite a few loan parts for sale and none of them are shifting. Never seen anything like this in the 18 months or so I've been investing. Is this a blip or the new normal? Perhaps saturation point has been reached.
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Post by peregrine on Apr 21, 2017 13:40:41 GMT
What is going on with the SM. I have quite a few loan parts for sale and none of them are shifting. Never seen anything like this in the 18 months or so I've been investing. Is this a blip or the new normal? Perhaps saturation point has been reached. Not surprised given so many are defaulted. I'm beginning to get the heeby jeebies and wont be investing any more until I start seeing some more loans redeeming on time and deafaults coming down. Makes me worried that SS is lending without proper due diligence on flaky valuation reports
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2017 13:50:42 GMT
The total loan book (including defaults) is about 184M atm. Is that an all-time high? Must be close...
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2017 14:09:58 GMT
fwiw, being at my platform limit is the only reason I'm not hungrily gobbling up some of the goodies on offer over the last couple of days
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Apr 21, 2017 14:11:37 GMT
Perhaps saturation point has been reached. Not surprised given so many are defaulted. I'm beginning to get the heeby jeebies and wont be investing any more until I start seeing some more loans redeeming on time and deafaults coming down. Makes me worried that SS is lending without proper due diligence on flaky valuation reports The ever increasing defaulted and negative day loans is a big worry. The PF is soon set to be emptied, so no wonder so many are jumping ship. The DFL's might have been a better bet than the PBL's after all.
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Post by peregrine on Apr 21, 2017 14:47:57 GMT
What is going on with the SM. I have quite a few loan parts for sale and none of them are shifting. Never seen anything like this in the 18 months or so I've been investing. Is this a blip or the new normal? Anecdotal evidence suggests this is the 'new normal' for loans with less than 100 days to term. Until it changes. At that point it'll either be " nothing on the SM, can't get invested, moan, moan, moan" or " I invested in this loan expecting to dump at 100 days and now I'm being forced to hold it to term because there are so many new, long dated loans on the PM that the SM may as well be non-existent". I'm thinking it's more likely to trend towards the latter. Existing DFLs are bringing new tranches on at a rate of around one per week and that will rise as new DFL loans are originated. The state of the default loans section may be a concern and giving rise to a reluctance for anyone to buy anything 'old' whatsoever. Lendy don't have an IFISA, so maybe lenders' attentions are being drawn elsewhere. Also, Lendy are significantly increasing their origination volumes, so longer dated loans will abound even if at lower rates than has historically been the case. Out of interest, what are you selling and why? Why am I selling ? Its actually not because I need the money but simply because I am getting nervous. My strategy previously has been to sell at 45 days so that I dont have to deal with potential defaults. My fear is that Lendy have now taken on too many junk loans with dubious valuations. I will see how the next week or so goes and if nothing shifts will certainly give up on investing on the platform. Hopefully I am wrong !!!
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