angrysaveruk
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S
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Post by angrysaveruk on May 24, 2017 13:08:56 GMT
Did the other Zopa+'ers receive the following email yesterday? ""Improvements to your projected return calculation" Sounds useful but dull, but buried at the bottom of the e-mail is the following: "And, for the first time, you will be able to buy or sell Plus loans that have previously been in arrears, as your new projected return takes into account each microloan’s actual performance"
Is this really as it sounds, a marketplace for duff Z+ loans? This sounds, err, surprising? Edit: On reflection, I suppose this means that when you invest new money, you're now going to be allocated 'secondary' loans. So maybe this is an attempt by Zopa to smooth out the returns seen by investors to maybe avoid the post 6 month slump seen by some? I had been thinking if it would be possible to avoid bad loans by selling out your Zopa Plus portfolio since it takes 4 months for bad loans to be crystalised. Do they just stop you selling out these bad loans or not? If you can sell out your loans before they are marked as default for the 1% fee you could simply just invest in zopa + wait until just before 4 months are up and sell out your portfolio with 0 defaults  The annual return on this would be around 12% - 3% or 9%
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kaya
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Post by kaya on May 24, 2017 14:45:55 GMT
Worst month ever. Interest received only just exceeds losses. Soon I will be investing in Zopa Minus, apparently
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angrysaveruk
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S
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Post by angrysaveruk on May 24, 2017 17:21:45 GMT
Worst month ever. Interest received only just exceeds losses. Soon I will be investing in Zopa Minus, apparently Sorry to hear that. How much did you lose? I am concerned that these losses are an early warning sign.
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kaya
Member of DD Central
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Post by kaya on May 25, 2017 7:31:32 GMT
So far this month, about £29 in interest , and about £25 losses  , so not talking large amounts here! March was a bad month too. Needless to say I am now in withdrawl mode. |
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on May 25, 2017 7:53:17 GMT
Zopa Minus, I like it. I've been a member of that particular club since March, although only on -£3.33 for this month so barely still an eligible member!
Seriously though, I'm aware we can't just say "Zopa+ must be rubbish" on the basis of a few of us not doing well, but as an investor on many platforms I'm not aware of many other corners on this forum when the main beef is people making an actual nominal loss (maybe Rebs judging by the tone there, but I'm not in that one). People complain everyday over on Ratesetter that the rates are only 3%, well try -3%! That's been about my rate for the last 3 months.
It also anecdotally seems that it's the lenders just lending £1k-£2k that seem to be suffering the most by virtue of achieving nearly the same number of defaults as those with £10k. I don't really know why that should be the case, I just don't buy that 1% diversification shouldn't sufficient.
I'll keep my pittance on Z+ out of interest just to see if they really do come good in the long term. I continue not to be optimistic!
Edit: As a shot at being more fair, I've just looked at my account again and my all-time earnings are +£54 which isn't exciting but also not a loss. So at least part of my complaining really is actually an optics problem - it's not very pleasant to view the rollercoaster of very good returns followed by very bad. I track my P2P earnings monthly, so it's all too visible, whilst if I looked annually then perhaps I wouldn't be moaning.
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Post by gidoppp01 on May 25, 2017 8:15:08 GMT
I only started Zopa + recently, so far, I haven't lost any money yet and I am thinking a strategy to maximise the platform.
The only thing I don't like about Zopa+ so far is the repayment date. I suppose this is necessary to provide better customer service for D/E borrowers. It makes me uncomfortable to see D/E customers borrowing for wedding expenses.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on May 25, 2017 10:42:44 GMT
Been with Zopa since September 2005.
I have £34k in Z+ and 27k in ZC.
my blended return in April was £297. £358 in interest. -£70 new bad debt, +£9 repayments from bad debtors.
About what I would expect. Very satisfied.
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marie
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Post by marie on May 25, 2017 13:20:34 GMT
Been with Zopa since September 2005. I have £34k in Z+ and 27k in ZC. my blended return in April was £297. £358 in interest. -£70 new bad debt, +£9 repayments from bad debtors. About what I would expect. Very satisfied. That would be almost 6% return, that's pretty good for your split between + and C! Especially taking into consideration that you're still in the worst phase default wise (first 18 months). I've got faith in Zopa+, and will continue to re-invest More than happy for other people to sell out though, I'm getting a lot of loans already partially repaid lately, which suites me very well. They have already shown willingness to re-pay!
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on May 25, 2017 13:51:44 GMT
April was a 6% blended month for me too, however May is running at about 2% blended, my losses on plus are bringing my Classic down.  |
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nrw
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Post by nrw on Jun 3, 2017 16:06:16 GMT
Latest analysis on my current outstanding Z+ loan book:
I've been investing since Z+ launched ~15 months ago - though funds deposited in three slugs, rather than all up front.
£100,000 lent in total
£105,542 investment balance
Status
£506 arrangement (9 loans)
£1,820 collections (35 loans)
£1,594 default (30 loans)
£70 withdrawal/pending (3 loans)
£101,755 withdrawn (2,356 loans)
£1,373 queued/awaiting investment
Analysis
£104,170 outstanding across 2,433 loans (at 11.3% with 7.3% return projected by Zopa)
£50.32 average sum lent (repaid + outstanding)
£3,920 distressed (3.8% of current loan book) - presumably cannot be currently sold
Distressed % roughly consistent across different amounts lent
£300 maximum amount lent (presumably a hard ceiling)
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Post by gidoppp01 on Jun 6, 2017 16:29:08 GMT
Latest analysis on my current outstanding Z+ loan book: I've been investing since Z+ launched ~15 months ago - though funds deposited in three slugs, rather than all up front. £100,000 lent in total £105,542 investment balance Status£506 arrangement (9 loans) £1,820 collections (35 loans) £1,594 default (30 loans) £70 withdrawal/pending (3 loans) £101,755 withdrawn (2,356 loans) £1,373 queued/awaiting investment Analysis£104,170 outstanding across 2,433 loans (at 11.3% with 7.3% return projected by Zopa) £50.32 average sum lent (repaid + outstanding) £3,920 distressed (3.8% of current loan book) - presumably cannot be currently sold Distressed % roughly consistent across different amounts lent £300 maximum amount lent (presumably a hard ceiling) This is not good at all, if you invested a lump sum of £100k 15 months ago, it doesn't add up to 7.3% with £105k balance.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jun 6, 2017 17:05:41 GMT
If asked, Zopa's view will be this (verbatim what they told me): "With personal loans, those that do default tend to do so within the first 12-18 months, with the statistically most volatile period for defaults being around months 6-9.Once you get beyond the first 12-18 months, default expectations are less and you should see much steadier returns. It’s the first year where you do hit some volatility, which in turn makes it difficult to send you consistent amounts each month. All these bad behaviors and recoveries are factored in to our projected returns and over the past 12 months, we’ve done slightly better than expected." i.e. it's theoretically unsurprising that nrw is seeing below expected long term performance at this point, but should see performance improve significantly from around the 18 month point. Now in practice....well...that's your decision |
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nrw
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Post by nrw on Jun 7, 2017 7:47:01 GMT
Latest analysis on my current outstanding Z+ loan book: I've been investing since Z+ launched ~15 months ago - though funds deposited in three slugs, rather than all up front. £100,000 lent in total £105,542 investment balance Status£506 arrangement (9 loans) £1,820 collections (35 loans) £1,594 default (30 loans) £70 withdrawal/pending (3 loans) £101,755 withdrawn (2,356 loans) £1,373 queued/awaiting investment Analysis£104,170 outstanding across 2,433 loans (at 11.3% with 7.3% return projected by Zopa) £50.32 average sum lent (repaid + outstanding) £3,920 distressed (3.8% of current loan book) - presumably cannot be currently sold Distressed % roughly consistent across different amounts lent £300 maximum amount lent (presumably a hard ceiling) This is not good at all, if you invested a lump sum of £100k 15 months ago, it doesn't add up to 7.3% with £105k balance. Note the comment at the top of my post "I've been investing since Z+ launched ~15 months ago - though funds deposited in three slugs, rather than all up front." I've just had a dig through, and funds were roughly deposited as follows: £20k Apr 2016 £30k Jul 2016 £25k Sep 2016 £25k Apr 2017 I haven't yet calculated the IRR - but it feels like it's roughly on track.
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Post by gidoppp01 on Jun 7, 2017 12:43:57 GMT
This is not good at all, if you invested a lump sum of £100k 15 months ago, it doesn't add up to 7.3% with £105k balance. Note the comment at the top of my post "I've been investing since Z+ launched ~15 months ago - though funds deposited in three slugs, rather than all up front." I've just had a dig through, and funds were roughly deposited as follows: £20k Apr 2016 £30k Jul 2016 £25k Sep 2016 £25k Apr 2017 I haven't yet calculated the IRR - but it feels like it's roughly on track. Thanks for showing the figures. Your return on Zopa plus is definitely close to 11.3% through "regular saving" on paper, but given the amount of loans in "distressed" and the Zopa plus sell out admin fess and interest, it is hard to make a profit on Zopa plus if you are withdrawing all the funds now, this is what really annoys me.
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ashtondav
Member of DD Central
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Post by ashtondav on Jun 7, 2017 13:29:23 GMT
Been with Zopa since September 2005. I have £34k in Z+ and 27k in ZC. my blended return in April was £297. £358 in interest. -£70 new bad debt, +£9 repayments from bad debtors. About what I would expect. Very satisfied. That would be almost 6% return, that's pretty good for your split between + and C! Especially taking into consideration that you're still in the worst phase default wise (first 18 months). I've got faith in Zopa+, and will continue to re-invest More than happy for other people to sell out though, I'm getting a lot of loans already partially repaid lately, which suites me very well. They have already shown willingness to re-pay! Yes, I'm a founder member so I receive an extra 1% on all loans.
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The annual return on this would be around 12% - 3% or 9% 
, so not talking large amounts here! March was a bad month too. Needless to say I am now in withdrawl mode.
