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Post by markp2p on Jan 5, 2017 22:40:33 GMT
It is not the defaults that put me off, but the fact that FS do virtually nothing about them and accept any old half-baked excuse for months on end. There's no point in secured lending if you don't enforce the security when you need to.
I accept that I am hawkish when it comes to security. I would rather enforce as soon as I can even if that is not the return-maximising strategy on any particular loan. At least that way you don't acquire a reputation as a soft-touch so that in future borrowers are more likely to repay than say that the dog must have eaten the cheque and Ill send you another one next Tuesday honest guv.
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locutus
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Post by locutus on Jan 5, 2017 23:01:51 GMT
It is not the defaults that put me off, but the fact that FS do virtually nothing about them and accept any old half-baked excuse for months on end. There's no point in secured lending if you don't enforce the security when you need to. I accept that I am hawkish when it comes to security. I would rather enforce as soon as I can even if that is not the return-maximising strategy on any particular loan. At least that way you don't acquire a reputation as a soft-touch so that in future borrowers are more likely to repay than say that the dog must have eaten the cheque and Ill send you another one next Tuesday honest guv. For bullet loans, like those on FS, it is essential that action is taken swiftly as the LTV rises very quickly if interest is not paid at term.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Jan 6, 2017 4:36:29 GMT
It is not the defaults that put me off, but the fact that FS do virtually nothing about them and accept any old half-baked excuse for months on end. There's no point in secured lending if you don't enforce the security when you need to. I accept that I am hawkish when it comes to security. I would rather enforce as soon as I can even if that is not the return-maximising strategy on any particular loan. At least that way you don't acquire a reputation as a soft-touch so that in future borrowers are more likely to repay than say that the dog must have eaten the cheque and Ill send you another one next Tuesday honest guv. For bullet loans, like those on FS, it is essential that action is taken swiftly as the LTV rises very quickly if interest is not paid at term. I don't know how much of FS's apparent 'sympathy' toward borrowers results from their need to treat customers fairly. If they don't, they can get sued by borrowers who lose money when security is enforced and sold at 'fire sale' prices. That risk will tend to make lenders err on the side of caution/leniency. Whether they've overdone it is, of course, something we can debate ad infinitum!
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09dolphin
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Post by 09dolphin on Jan 6, 2017 8:46:50 GMT
I think FS are bending over backwards to be fair to borrowers. Yes they need to be fair to borrowers but they should also balance that with being fair to lenders. The Boatyard loan is a prime example of where FS have got this really wrong as they took many months before they decided to call in receivers having accepted the excuses made by the borrower at face value. It is now almost 12 months overdue and, because of the time taken by FS in initiating action, is likely to result in losses to investors.
Because the number of loans I have that are significantly overdue for payment or renewal I have reduced the amount I invest in any single loan. I now require a LTV of 60% or less to persuade me to invest and am generally much more sceptical where property loans are concerned. The exit strategy is also pretty influential and is often missing or relates to other assets being sold. The sale of other assets is now a red flag to me personally as this cannot be enforced, the asset seems to be overvalued or takes several months longer than the borrower and FS anticipate.
Where jewelery is the security I am happy to lend up to 68% as this can be disposed of easily at auction (and has been in the past). Boats - I don't mind a small punt if it's a low LTV Cars - it depends on too many factors to enumerate.
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markdirac
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Post by markdirac on Jan 6, 2017 10:59:46 GMT
... More concerning is how long some loans sit in limbo between funded and drawn down whilst retaining lenders money, admittedly earning interest. Yes, that is a significant factor for loans which are (sort of) only 6 month term - the effective interest rate is cut by I guess about one % point if a loan is in limbo for a couple of weeks.
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markdirac
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Post by markdirac on Jan 6, 2017 11:16:47 GMT
For bullet loans, like those on FS, it is essential that action is taken swiftly as the LTV rises very quickly if interest is not paid at term. I note that for some loans, such as the borrower in Liverpool today, where some FS lenders rank third behind other FS lenders, that accruing interest could easily accumulate to the point that the security will not cover both principal and accumulated unpaid interest. In such a case, the third-rank lenders would lose disproportionately and prompt recovery would be particularly important for this small pool of the FS lenders.
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stub8535
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personal opinions only. Not qualified to advise on investment products.
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Post by stub8535 on Jan 6, 2017 11:20:56 GMT
If only it was 2 weeks locked up. Nothing lost though as interest accrues whilst in limbo. I would like to see accrued interest paid out at the go live date to encourage early bidders and make the sm less variable for a given loan.
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sqh
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Post by sqh on Jan 6, 2017 12:00:40 GMT
For bullet loans, like those on FS, it is essential that action is taken swiftly as the LTV rises very quickly if interest is not paid at term. I note that for some loans, such as the borrower in Liverpool today, where some FS lenders rank third behind other FS lenders, that accruing interest could easily accumulate to the point that the security will not cover both principal and accumulated unpaid interest. In such a case, the third-rank lenders would lose disproportionately and prompt recovery would be particularly important for this small pool of the FS lenders. That is the scenario being played out on loans 1186363518 & 1740709902 right now.
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Jan 6, 2017 12:48:43 GMT
Possibly some investors are finding that money goes in but often may not come out again for a long time and even loans with a low LTV do not guarantee that you will get your money back when you originally expected.
Reading the updates on loans more than 100 days overdue does not inspire confidence, for example:
2891725647 (LTV 37.5), 1029913142 (LTV 52.53), 1960999217 (LTV 71.43), 1861817905 (LTV 17.39)
Various obviously meaningless terms are used repeatedly, such as "No change" "As before" "Awaiting funds" "Ongoing" etc.
However, many more superficially promising statements prove to be just as meaningless in terms of real progress to return of funds, for example:
"funds should be available this month" "progress has been made" "signs remain positive" "view to taking more immediate action" "expected to be completed within" "hopefully finalise" "we expect repayment within" "evidence that funds are in place" "expected to be resolved imminently" "evidence of refunding" "confirmation from solicitor" "refinancing will complete shortly"
It seems that the only truly meaningful update is the email confirming that one of your loans has completed and closed.
Clearly, when loans are allowed to become this overdue the accumulation of interest and potentially increased costs of realising the value of the security seriously add to the likelihood of lender losses.
It appears that the pawn lending model is not ideally suited to large loans such as property, particularly when the loan recovery process becomes so protracted.
Site statistics for October to December show that defaults and overdue loans are increasing in value month on month but remaining level or decreasing in percentage terms.
Let us hope that we do not see a significant worsening in 2017.
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Investboy
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Post by Investboy on Jan 6, 2017 17:07:08 GMT
I have 27 overdue loans (16%) but I haven't lost a penny yet. All my previous troubled loans were paid sooner or later with all the interests.
Out of those 27 only 6 are Unredeemed and rest are Active.
Hmm... should I be worried?
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Jan 6, 2017 17:22:15 GMT
Good question.
What is becoming clear is that 6 months is a very notional timescale for FS loans.
In the event of non-payment it seems that with property one can expect an average delay of 3-6 months before firm action is taken and a further 6-9 months before the firm action leads to a return of funds. Therefore, assuming 18 months interest, say 10% recovery costs, and 10% reduction in value for a "quick sale", as was suggested earlier in the thread, in the absence of special conditions, 60% LTV is not so much safe but is perhaps a guideline sensible maximum.
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09dolphin
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Post by 09dolphin on Jan 7, 2017 3:33:17 GMT
If a loan is repaid or renewed by the date planned I am pleasantly surprised.
My expectation is that many loans will overrun by at least a month and even possibly by 3 months. However when a loan's repayment date exceeds 3 months I think FS should become more proactive and give more detail about the actions they are taking to recover lenders money.
Does anyone know how long FS will allow lenders money to be tied up before drawdown. I invested in the Castle loan about 2.5 months ago and it's still waiting to be made active so the best I can hope for is that this will be a loan for 8.5 months, even assuming it is repaid or renewed on time. After all lenders do make the loan on the assumption it is for a peeriod in the order of 6 months.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Jan 7, 2017 4:32:48 GMT
Does anyone know how long FS will allow lenders money to be tied up before drawdown. I invested in the Castle loan about 2.5 months ago and it's still waiting to be made active so the best I can hope for is that this will be a loan for 8.5 months, even assuming it is repaid or renewed on time. After all lenders do make the loan on the assumption it is for a peeriod in the order of 6 months. IIRC, the longest is the Whitchurch Land loan (2998063902) that was activated on Friday. I don't know if I invested on the first day the loan appeared, but I had 115 days of accrued interest when it was activated. The loan is showing a maturity date of 8/July so -- in this case, anyway -- the loan term is six months starting at activation.
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sqh
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Post by sqh on Jan 7, 2017 4:53:56 GMT
If a loan is repaid or renewed by the date planned I am pleasantly surprised.
My expectation is that many loans will overrun by at least a month and even possibly by 3 months. However when a loan's repayment date exceeds 3 months I think FS should become more proactive and give more detail about the actions they are taking to recover lenders money.
Does anyone know how long FS will allow lenders money to be tied up before drawdown. I invested in the Castle loan about 2.5 months ago and it's still waiting to be made active so the best I can hope for is that this will be a loan for 8.5 months, even assuming it is repaid or renewed on time. After all lenders do make the loan on the assumption it is for a peeriod in the order of 6 months. I'm afraid the borrower of the Castle loan has form. I did warn FS that this borrower still owes AC pre-drawdown interest before pulling out in Nov 2014. Also, the SS Castle loan hasn't drawdown yet.
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fp
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Post by fp on Jan 7, 2017 10:01:52 GMT
If a loan is repaid or renewed by the date planned I am pleasantly surprised.
My expectation is that many loans will overrun by at least a month and even possibly by 3 months. However when a loan's repayment date exceeds 3 months I think FS should become more proactive and give more detail about the actions they are taking to recover lenders money.
Does anyone know how long FS will allow lenders money to be tied up before drawdown. I invested in the Castle loan about 2.5 months ago and it's still waiting to be made active so the best I can hope for is that this will be a loan for 8.5 months, even assuming it is repaid or renewed on time. After all lenders do make the loan on the assumption it is for a peeriod in the order of 6 months. I'm afraid the borrower of the Castle loan has form. I did warn FS that this borrower still owes AC pre-drawdown interest before pulling out in Nov 2014. Also, the SS Castle loan hasn't drawdown yet. But we are talking peanuts really, but it does however highlight he is a slippery character. The fact he hasn't drawn down any loans isn't so much a concern, except if you're a platform footing the interest bill. He does have a number of loans in the system now, PBL155 on SS, plus a total of 7 loans on FS, totalling almost 5 million
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