vmail
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Post by vmail on Jan 12, 2017 14:04:12 GMT
Here are my XIRRs
FS 5.54% (2.98E-07% After Bad Debt)
AC 13.75% (10.11% After Bad Debt)
SS 12.82% (12.20% After Bad Debt)
MT 12.62% (12.62% After Bad Debt)
To get the bad debt values I subtracted the loans that should have been paid and are locked up by the platform.
Can I use XIRR to calculate a loss?
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markr
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Post by markr on Jan 12, 2017 14:43:36 GMT
How can your XIRR be greater than 12% for SS? I thought the highest rate you could get there was 12%, so even if you lent all your funds the instant that they were deposited (which I believe would be pretty much impossible, certainly right now there's nothing at all to invest in for example) you wouldn't see more than 12%?
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Jan 12, 2017 14:53:41 GMT
How can your XIRR be greater than 12% for SS? I thought the highest rate you could get there was 12%, so even if you lent all your funds the instant that they were deposited (which I believe would be pretty much impossible, certainly right now there's nothing at all to invest in for example) you wouldn't see more than 12%? 1% per month, if each month's interest in reinvested, compounds to almost 12.7%. A bit of cashback or a referral bonus could easily account for another 0.15%.
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Neil_P2PBlog
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Post by Neil_P2PBlog on Jan 12, 2017 15:05:50 GMT
How can your XIRR be greater than 12% for SS? I thought the highest rate you could get there was 12%, so even if you lent all your funds the instant that they were deposited (which I believe would be pretty much impossible, certainly right now there's nothing at all to invest in for example) you wouldn't see more than 12%? 1% per month, if each month's interest in reinvested, compounds to almost 12.7%. A bit of cashback or a referral bonus could easily account for another 0.15%. Or perhaps being allocated a loan part on one day, receiving interest but only depositing the cash the next day?
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vmail
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Post by vmail on Jan 12, 2017 15:29:09 GMT
Yes to reinvesting each month, that means 12% becomes equivalent to 12.6825%. No to the referral bonus (Only had referral bonus with FS). But you are forgetting the good old days with 0.5% cashback and interest upfront that is reinvested, you could rinse and repeat this a few times. This was equivalent to 14.2%, which could have been higher if I had more capital.
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markr
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Post by markr on Jan 12, 2017 16:45:51 GMT
Or perhaps being allocated a loan part on one day, receiving interest but only depositing the cash the next day? Which is maybe why XIRR can be a misleading measure for P2P sites where investors manually choose loans, and especially those, like SS, where investment opportunities are scarce and appear essentially randomly. XIRR assumes the platform operates in a vacuum; when we deposit funds they magically appear and when we withdraw, the funds vanish and count for nothing. In reality, in order to invest in those rare opportunities we must have ready cash stored somewhere even if it isn't in the platform's holding account. As an example, if a loan repays but there's nothing to invest in immediately, I might leave the balance in the platform holding account to await a new opportunity. However, my XIRR would be higher if I withdrew the balance into my bank current account, then transferred it back when a new loan became available, even though my actual earnings would be no different. As an extreme example consider AC. From an XIRR point of view, there may be situations where it is better (i.e. has a higher XIRR) to withdraw idle funds from AC into a 0% current account than to allow them to be swept into the QAA to earn 3.75%, because "in-platform" the 3.75% pulls down the blended QAA/MLIA rate, but "out-of-platform", the 0% doesn't count. [Disclaimer, I haven't worked an example and it would depend on amounts, dates, QAA rate and MLIA rate].
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Post by stevefindlay on Jan 14, 2017 14:47:24 GMT
FWIW - in the investment community IRRs are considered to be notoriously untrustworthy (easy to manipulate). A sensible measure is to look at the simple cash multiple (total cash out divided by total cash in). And if desired take the nth root to provided a time-based return (e.g. if the cash multiple is x, then x^(1/3.5)-1 for the basic IRR over 3.5 years). However, this simplified approach doesn't really help if funds are being moved in and out (across different platforms) on a regular basis. But it can provide a meaningful, consistent method for comparing performance across different platforms. I would echo samford71 and markr comments on the limitations of using IRR, particularly if funds are sat idle and not deployed on a specific platform due to a lack of opportunities on that platform.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jan 14, 2017 15:10:05 GMT
/mod hat off
I concur with the last three posters. IRR (or XIRR) usually gives a 'too high' answer. On FC, where they calculate 'returns' only on invested money (even though the total may all be in the platform) the answer, in my case, was about 2x what you get if you take idle (even the idle ON platform) funds into account.
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vmail
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Post by vmail on Jan 14, 2017 16:11:14 GMT
FWIW - in the investment community IRRs are considered to be notoriously untrustworthy (easy to manipulate). A sensible measure is to look at the simple cash multiple (total cash out divided by total cash in). And if desired take the nth root to provided a time-based return (e.g. if the cash multiple is x, then x^(1/3.5)-1 for the basic IRR over 3.5 years). However, this simplified approach doesn't really help if funds are being moved in and out (across different platforms) on a regular basis. But it can provide a meaningful, consistent method for comparing performance across different platforms. I would echo samford71 and markr comments on the limitations of using IRR, particularly if funds are site idle and not deployed on a specific platform due to a lack of opportunities on that platform. What you say sounds simple, but I am getting silly results. Do you have some sample data that I can play with
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Post by stevefindlay on Jan 17, 2017 8:27:46 GMT
FWIW - in the investment community IRRs are considered to be notoriously untrustworthy (easy to manipulate). A sensible measure is to look at the simple cash multiple (total cash out divided by total cash in). And if desired take the nth root to provided a time-based return (e.g. if the cash multiple is x, then x^(1/3.5)-1 for the basic IRR over 3.5 years). However, this simplified approach doesn't really help if funds are being moved in and out (across different platforms) on a regular basis. But it can provide a meaningful, consistent method for comparing performance across different platforms. I would echo samford71 and markr comments on the limitations of using IRR, particularly if funds are site idle and not deployed on a specific platform due to a lack of opportunities on that platform. What you say sounds simple, but I am getting silly results. Do you have some sample data that I can play with Here's a very simple example with workings: A few things to remember: - ensure you add your outstanding balance to the "Out" column if you haven't withdrawn funds yet - take the reciprocal of the "Years of Investment" as the power (in the IRR calc) - subtract "1" to get the IRR For comparison, the XIRR of this series is 6.9% - so the method above isn't as "precise" but can be a better quick-check when comparing much more complex investment series, particularly when combined with the Cash Multiple statistic (1.095x i.e. 9.5% return) which is itself helpful.
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elliotn
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Post by elliotn on Nov 21, 2018 15:40:08 GMT
SS and MT would be my choice for high rates and current liquidity. Only very latest loans for SS & more portable assets for MT.
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Post by Badly Drawn Stickman on Nov 21, 2018 15:55:49 GMT
SS and MT would be my choice for high rates and current liquidity. Only very latest loans for SS & more portable assets for MT. The fat end of two years, if only all replies were so well considered.
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blender
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Post by blender on Nov 21, 2018 17:07:42 GMT
Only very latest loans for SS & more portable assets for MT. The fat end of two years, if only all replies were so well considered. Obviously needed to observe and assess the rise and fall of Coll before the reply could be made.
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Nov 21, 2018 18:57:14 GMT
I may require my capital in 9-12 months time. At the moment there are some investments are "stuck" in FS, AC, SS (In order) If this is capital you "require" and cant afford to lose I would exit P2P now. The global economy is heading into some pretty murky waters and alot of P2P is subprime lending.
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