kulerucket
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Post by kulerucket on Jan 26, 2017 22:36:08 GMT
Why are virtually all the Spanish loans I see classed as high risk with ridiculous returns and Estonian loans are at the other end of the spectrum? Is there something inherently wrong with the Spanish market? Is there a cultural thing going on where Estonians are more responsible about repaying debt?
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JamesFrance
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Port Grimaud 1974
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Post by JamesFrance on Jan 27, 2017 8:49:35 GMT
I don't have an answer to your question but looking at my Bondora Spanish loans shows as follows.
I currently have 151 loans all from before mid Sept 2014 when it became obvious that they were a disaster.
Of those 151, 129 have defaulted many of which have made no payments at all.
Since the beginning of December only 3 have paid anything so recovery is pathetic.
Never a word of apology from Bondora, only fanciful claims of recovery success which reality shows to be complete nonsense.
The only change Bondora made when this became obvious was to remove country choice for their investors.
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kulerucket
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Post by kulerucket on Jan 27, 2017 10:07:39 GMT
I don't have an answer to your question but looking at my Bondora Spanish loans shows as follows. I currently have 151 loans all from before mid Sept 2014 when it became obvious that they were a disaster. Of those 151, 129 have defaulted many of which have made no payments at all. Since the beginning of December only 3 have paid anything so recovery is pathetic. Never a word of apology from Bondora, only fanciful claims of recovery success which reality shows to be complete nonsense. The only change Bondora made when this became obvious was to remove country choice for their investors. When did they start having skin in the game? Was that after this period? I know may of the earlier intestors have been burned so I am treading very carefully and only have a small fixed amount in there to test the waters. Currently my Spanish HR loans report an average ProbabilityOfDefault=55%. Waiting to see how that pans out.
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JamesFrance
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Port Grimaud 1974
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Post by JamesFrance on Jan 27, 2017 10:25:25 GMT
I no longer read Bondora's marketing efforts as I am just withdrawing what I can without selling the paying loans. They certainly only risked investor's money when I last made a loan about a year ago.
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kulerucket
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Post by kulerucket on Jan 27, 2017 10:30:17 GMT
OK, according to wiseclerk blog it was about Jan 2016 when they starting doing this. |
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Post by rahafoorum on Jan 27, 2017 12:36:40 GMT
When did they start having skin in the game? Was that after this period? I know may of the earlier intestors have been burned so I am treading very carefully and only have a small fixed amount in there to test the waters. Currently my Spanish HR loans report an average ProbabilityOfDefault=55%. Waiting to see how that pans out. Luke They have never publicy admitted how much that "skin in the game" actually is, but I am 99.99% certain that it's €5 per loan, with the exception of those loans where someone takes full loan alone. There they won't have a stake at all. I find it difficult to call this skin in the game to be honest. With 5.95% origination fee and 4% annual management fee, there's no motivation whatsoever to NOT issue junk loans. The cost of getting the person to apply and do the checks is already out, so there's only additional profit for Bondora if they originate it. To put the numbers in context, with 5.95% the origination fee on loans issued in 2016 is close to €1.7 million. The "skin in the game" is around €52k. At best, it is foreskin in the game, if even that. I did some analyses on the recovery rates at the end of July last year. Text is in EST, but graphs alone should give some ideas. For example, at that point, 75%+ of Spanish defaulted loans had recovered by exactly 0%. Even from those that defaulted in 2014 and has 2 years time to recover. In these terms, even Slovakia showed better results with their recovery efforts by that time. rahafoorum.ee/bondora-taastumismaarad/
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kulerucket
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Post by kulerucket on Jan 27, 2017 13:35:58 GMT
At best, it is foreskin in the game, if even that. PMSL
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fric
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Post by fric on Jan 27, 2017 13:57:56 GMT
My advice would be to stay just with EE loans. I think they had best recovery process as well.
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kulerucket
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Post by kulerucket on Jan 27, 2017 14:23:54 GMT
My advice would be to stay just with EE loans. I think they had best recovery process as well. I would, but there is no choice in the matter unless you use the API. Although I am a developer and could knock up my own tool for interacting with the API, it's not worth my time. I could go in and keep selling them but I'd rather just leave it run and see how it goes to gather information. I am expecting that in due course one of the following will happen: 1) The PM allocates a limited portion of my portfolio to HR loans. Eventually they will approach 100% defaulted and will sit there blocking other HR loans being bought to replace them according to the distribution set out by the PM. 2) The defaulted HR loans cause my average returns to decrease prompting my PM to buy riskier and riskier loans in an attempt to bring my return rate up to the promised amount. The number of HR/default loans with gradulally increase and eat away at the rest of my portfolio until there is nothing but HR defaults. I suspect it's (2), but I am keeping a close eye on it using my test funds.
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fric
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Post by fric on Jan 27, 2017 14:32:30 GMT
Yeah, well Bondora got their way with everybody when they shut down the primary market on the page. So unless you use API, you are stuck with PM or secondary market only... I wouldn't touch PM at all, the loan distribution is terrible and you can't pick out the loans you actually feel comfortable with, it will only give you financial harm and headaches... Combine it together with Bondora's false statistics and you have a real cash cow (the investors ofc).
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Post by rahafoorum on Jan 27, 2017 14:59:11 GMT
My advice would be to stay just with EE loans. I think they had best recovery process as well. I would, but there is no choice in the matter unless you use the API. Although I am a developer and could knock up my own tool for interacting with the API, it's not worth my time. I could go in and keep selling them but I'd rather just leave it run and see how it goes to gather information. I am expecting that in due course one of the following will happen: 1) The PM allocates a limited portion of my portfolio to HR loans. Eventually they will approach 100% defaulted and will sit there blocking other HR loans being bought to replace them according to the distribution set out by the PM. 2) The defaulted HR loans cause my average returns to decrease prompting my PM to buy riskier and riskier loans in an attempt to bring my return rate up to the promised amount. The number of HR/default loans with gradulally increase and eat away at the rest of my portfolio until there is nothing but HR defaults. I suspect it's (2), but I am keeping a close eye on it using my test funds. You sound like you're angry at your money  I can share my bank account number if you want to get rid of it faster. There's no need for you to program API if you want to invest through it. You can use for example Beeplus beeplus.me/LendTower also planned to create an API solution, but I guess they scrapped the idea after realizing how pointless and useless it is to develop one. API won't give you much of anything besides failed bids, since PM will get in first and push API bids out. Beeplus offers some stats when you log in. Close to 90% of API bids made by investors through Beeplus fail because they're pushed out and the percentage has been increasing pretty consistently. You get in only into the larger amount loans, which also historically have been higher risk and had worse recovery.
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kulerucket
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Post by kulerucket on Jan 27, 2017 19:08:43 GMT
OK glad I can rule out the API route then, saves effort if I get temped. I'm hoping to be able to see the signs of what is to come long before reaching these end points. At the end of the day I have less than 2 days salary in there so it's no big deal.
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JamesFrance
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Port Grimaud 1974
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Post by JamesFrance on Jan 28, 2017 7:32:31 GMT
Maybe marthaskirta will come up with some excuse like the spin on TrustPilot. Fortunately they cannot delete this forum because we are all "spammers" like they did their own. |
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fric
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Post by fric on Jan 28, 2017 12:24:43 GMT
I would, but there is no choice in the matter unless you use the API. Although I am a developer and could knock up my own tool for interacting with the API, it's not worth my time. I could go in and keep selling them but I'd rather just leave it run and see how it goes to gather information. I am expecting that in due course one of the following will happen: 1) The PM allocates a limited portion of my portfolio to HR loans. Eventually they will approach 100% defaulted and will sit there blocking other HR loans being bought to replace them according to the distribution set out by the PM. 2) The defaulted HR loans cause my average returns to decrease prompting my PM to buy riskier and riskier loans in an attempt to bring my return rate up to the promised amount. The number of HR/default loans with gradulally increase and eat away at the rest of my portfolio until there is nothing but HR defaults. I suspect it's (2), but I am keeping a close eye on it using my test funds. You sound like you're angry at your money I can share my bank account number if you want to get rid of it faster. There's no need for you to program API if you want to invest through it. You can use for example Beeplus beeplus.me/LendTower also planned to create an API solution, but I guess they scrapped the idea after realizing how pointless and useless it is to develop one. API won't give you much of anything besides failed bids, since PM will get in first and push API bids out. Beeplus offers some stats when you log in. Close to 90% of API bids made by investors through Beeplus fail because they're pushed out and the percentage has been increasing pretty consistently. You get in only into the larger amount loans, which also historically have been higher risk and had worse recovery. So basically there is no decent way to invest anymore? Unless ofc, you take PM and just sell anything you don't want.
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kulerucket
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Post by kulerucket on Jan 28, 2017 13:54:10 GMT
As I understand, the PM is supposed to maintain a consistent portfolio profile. So even if you were to sell the ones you don't like, the new one bought to replace it would have a similar risk profile.
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I can share my bank account number if you want to get rid of it faster.