cooling_dude
Bye Bye's for the PPI
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Post by cooling_dude on Feb 22, 2017 12:16:35 GMT
Just to back up what others have been told (indicated on a different thread); I got a response from SS over a week ago confirming that all loans have had their term updated to reflect their "actual term". On the basis of that, I produced the following sexy graph (adjusted - "Current" represents terms on 01/03 and PBL020 repaid). Disclaimer : The following is a worst case scenario (no repayments & no extensions) See updated post HERE |
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Feb 22, 2017 12:49:11 GMT
I'm not very good at graphs, does this mean that the green is the ground and we will all be drowned by a huge tsunami in 5-6 months?
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twoheads
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Post by twoheads on Feb 22, 2017 12:50:48 GMT
The following loans have had their remaining term adjusted in the last few weeks:
When | Loan | Old term | New term | 23/01/17 | PBL065 | 3 | 33 | 02/02/17 | PBL033 | -34 | 56 | 10/02/17 | PBL089 | -103 | -73 | 10/02/17 | PBL101 | -45 | -15 | 10/02/17 | PBL102 | -45 | -15 | 10/02/17 14:11 | PBL040 | -110 | 70 | 10/02/17 14:19 | PBL040 | 70 | 120 |
Terms shown are those at the time of the adjustment.
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cooling_dude
Bye Bye's for the PPI
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Post by cooling_dude on Feb 22, 2017 13:04:19 GMT
I'm not very good at graphs, does this mean that the green is the ground and we will all be drowned by a huge tsunami in 5-6 months?  Green line is a very speculative line - it is a very bad guesstimate of SS average monthly profit (as calculated by me and some other members via 2016 numbers  ).#
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twoheads
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Post by twoheads on Feb 22, 2017 13:12:36 GMT
I'm not very good at graphs, does this mean that the green is the ground and we will all be drowned by a huge tsunami in 5-6 months? Green line is a very speculative line - it is a very bad guesstimate of SS average monthly profit (as calculated by me and some other members via 2016 numbers ).# And of course this profit guesstimate should be read from the scale on the right!
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tomtom
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Post by tomtom on Feb 22, 2017 13:16:52 GMT
Just to back up what others have been told (indicated on a different thread); I got a response from SS over a week ago confirming that all loans have had their term updated to reflect their "actual term". On the basis of that, I produced the following sexy graph (adjusted - "Current" represents terms on 01/03 and PBL020 repaid). Disclaimer : The following is a worst case scenario (no repayments & no extensions) 
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cooling_dude
Bye Bye's for the PPI
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Post by cooling_dude on Feb 22, 2017 14:01:23 GMT
Green line is a very speculative line - it is a very bad guesstimate of SS average monthly profit (as calculated by me and some other members via 2016 numbers ).# Thanks for this graph. Which data belong to which axis? Should be self-explanatory considering the numbers involved. Bars = Left axis Lines = Right axis Will update graph to show the above
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ablender
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Post by ablender on Feb 22, 2017 14:03:16 GMT
cooling_dude Thanks for this graph. Which data belong to which axis? Should be self-explanatory considering the numbers involved. Bars = Left axis Lines = Right axis Will update graph to show the above Thanks. This tallies with my back-of-the-envelope calculations which I presented earlier in this thread.
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ric
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Post by ric on Feb 22, 2017 14:37:10 GMT
Dude, are you including PBL81 on your defaulted loans as of 1st Mar?
excluding PBL20, I have 75 and 81 as defaulted for a total of 3,290,000. Is this correct? thanks!
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cooling_dude
Bye Bye's for the PPI
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Post by cooling_dude on Feb 22, 2017 14:49:41 GMT
Dude, are you including PBL81 on your defaulted loans as of 1st Mar? excluding PBL20, I have 75 and 81 as defaulted for a total of 3,290,000. Is this correct? thanks! On review, it seems that "current" was using the wrong data (the rest of the graph is correct) Now corrected Should be 3 loans over 180 days on 01/03 (PBL074, PBL075, PBL081) totalling £3,612,000 Disclaimer : The following is a worst case scenario (no repayments & no extensions) 
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GeorgeT
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Post by GeorgeT on Feb 22, 2017 15:09:33 GMT
Thanks for the graph, I'm trying to understand it properly.
Can you please explain why the estimated SS monthly profit line stays horizontal when, towards the end of the graph, the amount of interest that would be paid by SS out of their profits in this scenario rises sharply and goes above the green line? Should the green line go down in relation to the blue line going up or does the graph assume the addition of new business that would maintain SS's profitability at roughly the same level?
Thanks
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ric
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Post by ric on Feb 22, 2017 15:14:03 GMT
thanks for updating. What is interesting is that by April we could have over 27mln of loans (16.2% of total loans) not paying interests.. I think secondary market will see big volumes of offered loans...
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ablender
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Post by ablender on Feb 22, 2017 15:15:16 GMT
Thanks for the graph, I'm trying to understand it properly. Can you please explain why the estimated SS monthly profit line stays horizontal when, towards the end of the graph, the amount of interest that would be paid by SS out of their profits in this scenario rises sharply and goes above the green line? Should the green line go down in relation to the blue line going up or does the graph assume the addition of new business that would maintain SS's profitability at roughly the same level? Thanks I think cooling_dude intends the green line to indicate the estimated monthly profit if SS does not have to pay this interest. (Hopefully SS will be able to recover this interest later otherwise the platform is in deep waters).
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cooling_dude
Bye Bye's for the PPI
Posts: 2,853
Likes: 4,298
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Post by cooling_dude on Feb 22, 2017 15:16:16 GMT
Thanks for the graph, I'm trying to understand it properly. Can you please explain why the estimated SS monthly profit line stays horizontal when, towards the end of the graph, the amount of interest that would be paid by SS out of their profits in this scenario rises sharply and goes above the green line? Should the green line go down in relation to the blue line going up or does the graph assume the addition of new business that would maintain SS's profitability at roughly the same level? Thanks The profit line (green) is not linked to any data; it is simply a consistent £400k/ month that has been estimated SS profit is (as an average from 2016 figures, with PF deducted). If the blue line (interest SS are paying investors out of their Profits) rises higher than the green line it indicates that SS are paying more interest than they are receiving profits (based on rough guesstimate figures, not any official figures). What is interesting about that green line is that it relies on both existing loans being in term (presuming SS take their interest monthly as investors do) and new loans. If one or both start to stagnate, the green line falls dramatically, and interest paid out of profits will only make the situation worse. I think that this is a key reason SS have implemented the new default/ "no interest after negative 90day" policy.
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ped
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Post by ped on Feb 25, 2017 12:32:59 GMT
I always thought SS collected the interest for the term at the start of the loan and therefore as long as they are issuing new loans and people are investing then the merry-go-round keeps them nicely in the black. It will be very interesting to see what does actually go into default on the 1st Mar. I imagine one or two of the 180days+ loans will get date changes or repayments next week.
Bit surprised there isn't a lot more available on the SM for the 3 over 180 days.
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).#
