spockie
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Post by spockie on Jun 1, 2014 20:16:25 GMT
I'm out of Zopa.
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ton27
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Post by ton27 on Jun 2, 2014 20:07:08 GMT
Not quite out yet but exiting as fast as I can
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Jun 3, 2014 7:54:48 GMT
In roughly 1 months time there will be a complete re-release of AI and in particular the way it handles the aftermarket... ...we'll be releasing our more balanced approach to the aftermarket queue which will be based upon a weighted random factor, so your current investment in a loan, level of diversification amongst our loans, length of time you've been waiting in the queue, and percentage of your capital that is waiting to be deployed will all be taken into account in a weighted lottery... A system that weights according to these factors is not for me. If it weights according to % of capital waiting to be deployed, it demands that I have a large pile of cash on the system. The efficient way is to have have small amounts of cash on the system and top up when the AI buys something. And weighting according to current investment and level of diversification treats people unequally, which is unethical. Be that as it may, it looks like my chances of buying on the aftermarket are about to change from frustratingly low (due only to a shortage of supply) to negligible (rigged system). I won't play under those rules.
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Post by chris on Jun 3, 2014 8:09:23 GMT
In roughly 1 months time there will be a complete re-release of AI and in particular the way it handles the aftermarket... ...we'll be releasing our more balanced approach to the aftermarket queue which will be based upon a weighted random factor, so your current investment in a loan, level of diversification amongst our loans, length of time you've been waiting in the queue, and percentage of your capital that is waiting to be deployed will all be taken into account in a weighted lottery... A system that weights according to these factors is not for me. If it weights according to % of capital waiting to be deployed, it demands that I have a large pile of cash on the system. The efficient way is to have have small amounts of cash on the system and top up when the AI buys something. And weighting according to current investment and level of diversification treats people unequally, which is unethical. Be that as it may, it looks like my chances of buying on the aftermarket are about to change from frustratingly low (due only to a shortage of supply) to negligible (rigged system). I won't play under those rules. %age is probably the wrong solution (haven't written the algorithm yet, that's on next weeks to do list) so more likely we'll give a small boost to people with, say, less than £100 invested to help new lenders get funds deployed but otherwise it'll be equal opportunity on that factor. Length of time waiting is also liable to be riggable or to cause issue when amounts are changed so is likely to be a tiny factor. It is very important for us to balance the needs of smaller investors alongside those with deeper pockets and more to invest. Both need to get their capital away and I'm determined to build a system that isn't riggable by setting large targets or using weight of capital to get preferential treatment. The problem we face is that with limited supply it will *always* be impossible to come up with a fair system that works for all. Hence this being part of a wider spectrum of changes to our offering intended to rebalance supply and demand, amongst many other goals. Not everyone is going to like what we do, simple fact of life especially if there's a group who feel they currently have an unfair advantage and we take that away, but I'm personally determined not create an impenetrable black box that no one understands and that fails to deploy cash for anyone. I'll always be happy to explain our algorithms and procedures on this board and will always welcome feedback if it helps us achieve fairness. But to a degree whatever solution I come up with is a slave to the business originating enough loans to keep lenders happy.
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Jun 3, 2014 8:11:57 GMT
"....and percentage of your capital that is waiting to be deployed will all be taken into account in a weighted lottery..."
"If it weights according to % of capital waiting to be deployed, it demands that I have a large pile of cash on the system."
Agreed. This is not the way to do it. There is already too much cash waiting around for delayed loan drawdowns and earning nothing. To require even more money (than necessary) waiting and earning nothing until an "algorithm" decides that AI will be triggered to fulfil my requests is a complete non-starter for me. If I want to buy £100 part in a loan, I certainly do not intend to put (say) £1000 in the waiting pot in order to satisfy that kind of criterium!
(posted before seeing Chris's post)
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mike
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Post by mike on Jun 3, 2014 8:49:49 GMT
A few points from my experience to date:
1. I started 6 weeks ago and through bids and AI have deployed my capital over 15 loans giving me decent diversification at this stage. AI works well in my view. 2. As to how AI should allocate available loans across the lending community keeping it simple comes top of my list. A simple queuing system and available funds is enough. 3. There is always a danger that in trying to solve a current perceived problem and to keep everyone happy that the output is a complex hard to understand solution which has the opposite effect. 4. If demand outstrips supply then some lenders will always be left short. Focus on fixing that balance for the best results.
All opinions welcome.
Mike
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bugs4me
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Post by bugs4me on Jun 3, 2014 8:50:33 GMT
"....and percentage of your capital that is waiting to be deployed will all be taken into account in a weighted lottery..."
"If it weights according to % of capital waiting to be deployed, it demands that I have a large pile of cash on the system."
Agreed. This is not the way to do it. There is already too much cash waiting around for delayed loan drawdowns and earning nothing. To require even more money (than necessary) waiting and earning nothing until an "algorithm" decides that AI will be triggered to fulfil my requests is a complete non-starter for me. If I want to buy £100 part in a loan, I certainly do not intend to put (say) £1000 in the waiting pot in order to satisfy that kind of criterium!
(posted before seeing Chris's post)
We'll just have to see how this plays out as Z*** tried and tried (or so they claim) to introduce fairer and faster lending on their platform. IMO, although as others have pointed it, it's never been fully explained, the revamped algorithm favoured new lenders over old lenders. So folks that had steadily built up a reasonable portfolio over time were suddenly disadvantaged by TGLA which tended to favour the newer lenders. Now I'm all in favour of the fairer bit but if I've been a loyal shopper for a few years at XYZ supermarket it would certainly peeve me off if a new shopper was suddenly bounced in front of me at the supermarket queue. That's how it appears to have played out at Z*** but they retreated to their shell and never explained things - assuming they could of course. It's of little use filling up the bucket with new money (aka new lenders) if you've got holes in the bottom and your old lenders are drifting away. Time will tell.
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markr
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Post by markr on Jun 3, 2014 8:54:01 GMT
Surely the fairest way is to have a rotating queue. When loan parts are put up for sale, the lender at the front of the queue buys one part and then goes to the back (or falls out of the queue if they have satisfied their mandate). New mandates are also added to the back. in low supply situations, the available parts are divided equally among the people who've waited longest, in high supply situations everyone gets what they wanted. IMHO, any attempt to allow anyone to jump the queue in order to "make it fairer", actually does the exact opposite.
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bugs4me
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Post by bugs4me on Jun 3, 2014 9:02:16 GMT
Surely the fairest way is to have a rotating queue. When loan parts are put up for sale, the lender at the front of the queue buys one part and then goes to the back (or falls out of the queue if they have satisfied their mandate). New mandates are also added to the back. in low supply situations, the available parts are divided equally among the people who've waited longest, in high supply situations everyone gets what they wanted. IMHO, any attempt to allow anyone to jump the queue in order to "make it fairer", actually does the exact opposite. Agree 100% but sometimes the odd platform here and there just has to tinkle with things to such an extent that no one then understands. Often these things sound great in the meeting room with high fives all round but then in practise it all falls flat. Unfortunately there is rarely any backtracking to the old system which worked. Certainly not for me - I simply will not invest/lend/save (or whatever we're called now) in a platform that I do not understand how it works. I do not subscribe to the 'in your heart you know you can trust us' platform assumption.
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Post by chris on Jun 3, 2014 9:02:58 GMT
Surely the fairest way is to have a rotating queue. When loan parts are put up for sale, the lender at the front of the queue buys one part and then goes to the back (or falls out of the queue if they have satisfied their mandate). New mandates are also added to the back. in low supply situations, the available parts are divided equally among the people who've waited longest, in high supply situations everyone gets what they wanted. IMHO, any attempt to allow anyone to jump the queue in order to "make it fairer", actually does the exact opposite. How do you determine order when mandates are placed in bulk via an API or other automated system, what determines their start order? How does this work with loan units being broken up into smaller parts e.g. £100 loan unit is broken into a £20 chunk and an £80 chunk as the first person in the queue wanted £20. Does the next person in the queue get the £80 chunk and get shuffled to the back of the queue? Or does the £80 chunk get shuffled to the back of the list of loan units awaiting sale so that a £100 chunk can be brought forward for the next person? If that system is used then it works fine when large denominations of loan units are sold in bulk, but what if we're dealing with small ad hoc sales? In a heavily over-subscribed environment would a new lender to the platform simply go to the back of the queue on all loans and take forever before they start being able to deploy any cash? Should someone who just wants blind diversification be able to deploy their cash more rapidly than someone who wants to hand pick a few loans in which to lend, as they would with your solution. And so on. I'm all in favour of simple, but we don't have a simple system with one simple standard set of behaviours. The simple answer is to increase supply, and that is certainly plan a, but the system needs to be coded to cope in any scenario.
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Jun 3, 2014 9:11:44 GMT
If you do implement an algorithm which requires a lender to have a certain % of their total investment hanging about available to utilise on AI, please state very clearly to us exactly what that % is. Supposing I have £100k invested (I don't, by the way!!) how much do I need in my "available to invest" account so that I can actually buy anything on the AI? I would want to know so that I can decide whether to switch on AI at all.
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Post by chris on Jun 3, 2014 9:17:43 GMT
If you do implement an algorithm which requires a lender to have a certain % of their total investment hanging about available to utilise on AI, please state very clearly to us exactly what that % is. Supposing I have £100k invested (I don't, by the way!!) how much do I need in my "available to invest" account so that I can actually buy anything on the AI? I would want to know so that I can decide whether to switch on AI at all. My intention is that if you want to invest £100 you have to have £100 in your account, no more no less, and that it should deploy as quickly as possible. My challenge is to make that the case whether you want to invest £10 or £10m, but that is what I'm striving for whilst trying to find a way in which the system cannot be gamed. Contrary to other platforms I won't pretend that our solution is perfect and I'll be on this forum to justify choices, explain how it works, and listen to feedback on how to improve it for all. I won't be able to please everyone, you never can, but hopefully I can find a way to balance the needs of the many.
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Post by yorkshireman on Jun 3, 2014 9:28:49 GMT
I’ve been critical of AI in the past mainly because I had a long wait before it bought anything, possibly because I did not understand how to set it up. However, now that I’ve grasped how it operates, it appears to have worked on an even-handed basis (I emphasise not just for me) so why start tinkering with it?
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Post by chris on Jun 3, 2014 9:33:57 GMT
I’ve been critical of AI in the past mainly because I had a long wait before it bought anything, possibly because I did not understand how to set it up. However, now that I’ve grasped how it operates, it appears to have worked on an even-handed basis (I emphasise not just for me) so why start tinkering with it?
It's part of a wider vision for the site, one that was always coming with AI being a small piece of that puzzle.
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Jun 3, 2014 9:45:26 GMT
I think a lot of people want to know the following,
> What's the problem, exactly but simply stated
> What principles will guide the design of the solution
> What is the solution
I think these sort of things needs to be plainly and regularly stated if we are going to avoid the feeling that we're having the second battle of Zopa.
Thankfully chris is starting to state them.
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