cooling_dude
Bye Bye's for the PPI
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Post by cooling_dude on Mar 29, 2017 7:14:08 GMT
You shouldn't invest expecting the SM to bail you out. You should only invest funds you know you won't need for at least the term (and that you can afford to loose) and expect to hold to term (and is why DD is required on all investment) Recent events have contributed to the illiquidity but it is nothing new; SS have had bouts of illiquidity in the past, and it will in the future I don't remember seeing it like this, Dude. But then perhaps I'm just more acutely aware because it's effecting me this time? Like others have said, I think the SM will return to liquidity again in the near future, and even now good loans are moving. The SM (and PF) can mask the risks on what is a high risk environment. I know it is hard (and I'm a hypocrite, because I often don't follow this advice) but try to invest with both firmly at the back of your mind.
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elliotn
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Post by elliotn on Mar 29, 2017 7:16:31 GMT
I have already mentioned in another thread that I noticed that SS is trying to flood the SM. Another way to call it is to create availability of loans. My interpretation is not one of doom. I think that SS wants to be prepared for new lenders. Think in terms of changes of name mentioned in another thread. Think in terms of removal of INPL due to FCA. etc.... How far do you think are we before SS gets full authorisation. When that happens, if and when SS releases an IFISA, it will need loans available for people who register in their new product to invest in. I get that, but my reaction to this batch being released just as I was hoping to see some movement on the SM is to look again at investing with SS. I'm not investing in anything at all now until it becomes clear where this is going, prefunding set to zero. I understand they need loans for people to invest in, but of course they also need investors. For the moment at least, they've lost what I suppose must be a fairly big hitter. The interest at the end of the month is not even going to cover the prefunding for this batch, let alone get the SM working. If they shove out another few million in loans next month, I think you might as well start making the assumption that investing is for the term of the loan with all the possible repercussions that brings with it. As said, some of these loans are simply not paying enough to take the risk of seeing them through to conclusion. Your sticky loan aside, there will be repayments of c5M before two of the go-lives and an interest run of c1.5M against end of month go-lives for 6.2M. Am I missing something?
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Post by p2plender on Mar 29, 2017 7:17:06 GMT
Correct, that is what the provision fund is for. Now that just made me LOL!!
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bg
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Post by bg on Mar 29, 2017 7:20:45 GMT
I don't see the problem here. Net loans of £740k is peanuts in the scheme of things If 143 actually repays (big if) then the SM will be completely empty. I hope you are right, you may well be. As I said to Dude, it may well be that I see things differently here because it's the first time I have allowed myself to be stuck with an iffy loan in a sales queue that's not moving. I'm on the side lines for now. I've had that feeling many times before - but it's amazing how quickly things can clear. A redemption or a few days without loans and the pendulum can quickly swing the other way and people who are currently sitting on the sidelines will jump back in to pick up the scraps. Classic market behaviour!
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Post by p2plender on Mar 29, 2017 7:26:58 GMT
Remember though, often information comes to light throughout the term of some of these loans and suddenly the 'original' investment scenario is not one you would have happily thrown money into. Now a liquid SM gave you an option (aka, pass the  on to some poor soul  ) - rightly or wrongly of course! |
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r1200gs
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Post by r1200gs on Mar 29, 2017 7:27:43 GMT
I get that, but my reaction to this batch being released just as I was hoping to see some movement on the SM is to look again at investing with SS. I'm not investing in anything at all now until it becomes clear where this is going, prefunding set to zero. I understand they need loans for people to invest in, but of course they also need investors. For the moment at least, they've lost what I suppose must be a fairly big hitter. The interest at the end of the month is not even going to cover the prefunding for this batch, let alone get the SM working. If they shove out another few million in loans next month, I think you might as well start making the assumption that investing is for the term of the loan with all the possible repercussions that brings with it. As said, some of these loans are simply not paying enough to take the risk of seeing them through to conclusion. Your sticky loan aside, there will be repayments of c5M before two of the go-lives and an interest run of c1.5M against end of month go-lives for 6.2M. Am I missing something? I hope not!
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Mar 29, 2017 7:30:08 GMT
Some have short memories. Until 2016, SS was regularly balancing excesses of supply and demand; clamours for new loans, shortly followed by offers of cashback. Only in the last 15 - 18 months has there normally been an overhang of new funds seeking to invest, and even then we've seen occasional periods when the SM bloomed. It would take very little for SS to boost lender demand again if the need arose. However, given likely FCA approval any day (assuming their branding change is a pre-cursor) and the prospect of IFISA money thereafter, I'm not expecting to see cashback reappear any time soon!
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sqh
Member of DD Central
Before P2P, savers put a guinea in a piggy bank, now they smash the banks to become guinea pigs.
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Post by sqh on Mar 29, 2017 7:31:30 GMT
Last April I started raiding my cash ISA to fund P2P loans, now I need to return that cash or lose this year and previous year's allowances. So I've been expecting some illiquidity. I'm just surprised how long it has taken to arrive, we only have one week left to replenish our flexible cash ISA's.
Last year we had a mad March, particularly on AC, where the QAA interest rate got increased. That was before ISA's got flexible. I expect the next few days to get much worse.
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jomantha
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Post by jomantha on Mar 29, 2017 7:41:34 GMT
The SM is moving fine (except for my stuck as sold but not av money I've been waiting for since midnight.
I've not had any issue selling stuff on even yesterday.
It's not fine for loans noone wants or trusts
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stokeloans
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Post by stokeloans on Mar 29, 2017 8:10:09 GMT
Correct, that is what the provision fund is for. Now that just made me LOL!! Bill left a wink off his post .....at least I hope he did 
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stokeloans
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Post by stokeloans on Mar 29, 2017 8:12:34 GMT
Last April I started raiding my cash ISA to fund P2P loans, now I need to return that cash or lose this year and previous year's allowances. So I've been expecting some illiquidity. I'm just surprised how long it has taken to arrive, we only have one week left to replenish our flexible cash ISA's. Last year we had a mad March, particularly on AC, where the QAA interest rate got increased. That was before ISA's got flexible. I expect the next few days to get much worse. What rate will your cash isa be returning ? What's your average P2P rate of return ?
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Post by jackpease on Mar 29, 2017 8:26:28 GMT
Correct, that is what the provision fund is for. Now that just made me LOL!! I don't usually get jokes but I am assuming it was a joke. It was wasn't it? Jack P (in edit)
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Post by jackpease on Mar 29, 2017 8:31:07 GMT
The SM is moving fine .... It's not fine for loans noone wants or trusts Which means it is working exactly how it ought to! I think other peoples' ISA point is also worth highlighting - loads of people will want to be dumping money into ISAs/pensions before tax year end and might have assumed their parts would sell within minutes. Jack P
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elliotn
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Post by elliotn on Mar 29, 2017 8:45:59 GMT
I don't usually get jokes but I am assuming i was a joke. I would never assume that you were 
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elliotn
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Post by elliotn on Mar 29, 2017 9:01:11 GMT
Extreme care now required. Since inception the sm has of course been very liquid. Each time it has become clogged, SS seem to have 'thinned' the pipeline. Looking at things now, SS suddenly seem to need a constant pipeline - yet the sm says different. The lowering of rates was the initial warning, the second warning, in my opinion, is the increase in the pipeline even when the sm has largely ground to a halt. Escape routes are being blocked off, the warning signs are flashing more so than they have ever been. All imo. SS are in the media stating their aim is for 350M origination this year to be the leading prop p2p. As this is a considerable uptick I don't think we should rely too heavily on past (inpl fuelled) SM activity. My reading of the developers requiring funds at this moment was that SS tried to give quite a steer on upcoming liquidity: DFL020 - "it should be noted that pbl085...is going to be repaid before this loan is drawndown" (c4.5M); Pbl167 - "please note that this loan will be repaying pbl122" (c1M). We're also all eagerly awaiting our next kerching shortly (c1.5M). These payments of 6.5M are set against a current go-live of c6.2M before any new money taking advantage of these investments. If there are investors who are not holding to term - despite the default page being relatively light - they may have to adjust their investments accordingly in light of the latest market conditions.
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on to some poor soul 
) - rightly or wrongly of course!
