is
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Post by is on Jun 27, 2014 6:53:17 GMT
Well, FC are so confident that it'll fill that they've listed another £500k property loan to go with it. Indeed - don't forget they know with a high degree of confidence exactly the amount of autobid cash that will be available in the auction period (barring defaults or people turning autobid off). This is a pretty good edge!
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markr
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Post by markr on Jun 27, 2014 9:40:30 GMT
Hmm, if autobid money is going to be pouring into property for the next fortnight, there's some tasty looking 100k-plus unsecured loans coming up. Might be time to dust off the flipper finger and see if I can beat the bid-bots.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jun 27, 2014 11:43:04 GMT
As far as I (or anyone) can tell, autobid will pour money into whichever loans are least %filled at the time(s) it runs, so yeah, the large property loans will soak up a lot, but the other tasty loans will get some too, unless (as per tall*** etc) folks have already filled them up past the threshold level, albeit with offers at silly rates. Of course FC might one day fix this .. first they have to acknowledge / understand it, so we are likely safe for a while. If you want to game the system, pick a likely looking loan and we'll all dump 14%+ bids in which will make autobid look the other way. 8>.
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is
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Post by is on Jun 27, 2014 12:47:17 GMT
As far as I (or anyone) can tell, autobid will pour money into whichever loans are least %filled at the time(s) it runs, so yeah, the large property loans will soak up a lot, but the other tasty loans will get some too, unless (as per tall*** etc) folks have already filled them up past the threshold level, albeit with offers at silly rates. Of course FC might one day fix this .. first they have to acknowledge / understand it, so we are likely safe for a while. If you want to game the system, pick a likely looking loan and we'll all dump 14%+ bids in which will make autobid look the other way. 8>. The downside is that early acceptance is less likely. Surely you want the MBR tranche to be as large as possible? I'd be happy to take 10% of an A+ at 15% with 90% at MBR 6%, the borrower would be happy with 6.9% rate 
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jun 27, 2014 13:50:26 GMT
Depends what game you are playing I guess ... There's 'scr+w the borroweer', 'beggar the lenders', and 'annoy the bid-bots', all played with the same equipment, but slightly different rules. 8>.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jul 4, 2014 9:20:22 GMT
Addendum - well they got that one funded - mostly, I would guess, by restricting the new loan flow (eg yesterday) so all the autobid money went in (as far as possible). Having a couple of loans repaid early must have helped autobid money too. The other large one (6705?) seems a hopeless case even with that tactic, so the flow of loans has resumed this morning, after a real overnight drought
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blender
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Post by blender on Jul 4, 2014 10:07:03 GMT
You could be right there GSV. Note that 6692, the one now funded, was the one which FC have underwritten (in some way) and it had to be filled, while the larger and even less attractive 6705 can hung out to dry. There were still 5 days to go though so why act now? Note that the much more attractive 6762 was filled in less than three hours and is now accepted with an effective date of 2 July (but not yet drawn down), while those who bid earlier on 6692 and 6705 could not put that cash on 6762, and may still have a week to wait. Why bid early on 14 day auctions of large fixed rate loans at 7%? I do not understand.
Anyway it is possible that 6692 had to be filled before another better property loan could be listed. Keep your eyes peeled.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jul 4, 2014 15:57:40 GMT
Why bid early on 14 day auctions of large fixed rate loans at 7%? I do not understand. Because a lot of those bids are autobid, and thus artificially stoooopid! Autobid will bid as/when funds are available (and if there is not much choice of auction, and there wasn't, it'll pick this one). There has been no pre-announcement of any more property auctions, but then the 3 hour one wasn't pre-announced either. I suspect we're stuck until the large one either fills up, or FC give up on it. 5% cash-back might do it. 8>.
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mikeb
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Post by mikeb on Jul 4, 2014 17:33:35 GMT
Aside from autobid being auto-brainless, there's also the element that you can never be sure how long you've got to bid ... ok with hindsight these two are taking their time. But others have filled in tens of minutes, so either get a bid in, or miss it.
Might as well get bids in as soon as possible, delaying bidding to the last minute won't get a juicier rate or anything.
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blender
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Post by blender on Jul 4, 2014 18:44:11 GMT
To be fair, not everyone has the time to sit and watch a loan fill and judge the speed. R****gate 2 is not so bad to keep because of the shorter term, but 6705 is unattractive. Generally these 7% loans with 2% cashback are getting sticky, are going to be hard to sell when you wish. Even 6762, 8% for nine months, is now trading at a discount of 0.5%. When these two current 7% loans are taken they may well be unflippable.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jul 4, 2014 19:06:49 GMT
Although we may be headed back to the Xmas situation when a dearth of new loans meant ANTHING was flippable, at silly rates (but there was no place to re-invest if you sold). I wonder if next week's lending review will be trumpeting the record low loans this ('last') week .. no, I guess probably not. Counting the large repayment(s) I wonder if we are even in positive territory?! 8>.
I guess I may venture a small sum, and flip (at par) at leisure over the life of the loan, but farming it for the cash-back looks like a non-starter .. better off buying some of the earlier/smaller ones (with shorter terms) at a discount... I saw some for sale at discounts of over 1%, and there is a faint chance they will sell (to the same brainless autobidders) at par sometime before they repay, or go mammaries skyward.
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blender
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Post by blender on Jul 4, 2014 19:51:57 GMT
Yes, you can buy property loan 6391, an A at 8% interest, plus a discount of 1.5% - as much as you like. If you do not mind having it for 5 years. A year ago we would have given our right forelegs for a deal like that. FC were trying to impose a minimum bid of 7.5%, iirc, for an unsecured A loan and lenders were up in arms to defend their right to give their money away (when taking time out from complaining about defaults). Those were the days!
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jm72
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Post by jm72 on Jul 8, 2014 12:39:42 GMT
To be fair, not everyone has the time to sit and watch a loan fill and judge the speed. R****gate 2 is not so bad to keep because of the shorter term, but 6705 is unattractive. Generally these 7% loans with 2% cashback are getting sticky, are going to be hard to sell when you wish. Even 6762, 8% for nine months, is now trading at a discount of 0.5%. When these two current 7% loans are taken they may well be unflippable. Well - FC are obviously worried about 6705 filling up - a reminder email has just been sent out to say that there are still 2 days left to bid on this. First time I've ever seen an email like that from FC!
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jul 8, 2014 15:06:09 GMT
Yes, I expect that sort of thing from some of the other platforms, but this is the first one from FC. Of course if (when?) this loan does fail to fill, there'll be ~£400k of (mostly autobid?) money all looking for a new home, all at once, which right now is close to a day's listings (ignoring the whole loans)... that's not going to do much for lenders' rates (but good news for borrowers). We shall see, maybe some HNW individuals, or FC staff, will ride to the rescue waving wads of cash at the 11th hour .. blimey, is that the time already!?! 8>.
Meantime, no new property loans listed - I wonder if some repricing is occurring. Problem is, unlike normal auctions, it seems FC commits to a fixed rate on these, and I wonder how long the pipeline is - i.e. how far into the future there are 7% expectations set. For a short term, smallish loan, 2% cash-back, 7% (less fees) worked .. for a 3 year whopper it appears 7% won't fly... and if people expect it to not fly, they'll be even less likely to tie their money up for 2 weeks on the off chance (autobidders won't know or care).
Meantime RamsG**e 2 is still sitting there not drawn down (but ended .. or 'closed and ended' or whatever).
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blender
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Post by blender on Jul 8, 2014 16:17:00 GMT
That email must have gone only to the property loan registrants, I do not have it, and since it is the only such loan they are not giving it any special preference. It is having every chance, though. This morning Autobid took a £100 part of 6622 (7% 12m) at par when you could have it manually for a 1.1% discount. And the discounts required on the SM to sell property loans have been reduced by the generally low rates at present. I took a look at the Q&A of 6705 out of interest and it seems there are issues raised by the long-term holders. The view that it is sub-optimal in some ways both for short term and long term holders might combine to create an unusual set of circumstances. It has a long way to go in two days, but it will be interesting to observe the end-game for a property loan - they have always had time to spare, I believe. Edit: Lost the quote. JM72 had received an email about 6705.
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