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Post by yorkshireman on Jul 3, 2017 16:06:44 GMT
p2pindependentforum.com/post/187196An update on the above post: Using the same strategy, i.e. selling E’s after two weeks and all other grades before first payment due, no funds added but all interest and sale profits reinvested and FC's charges deducted, my wife’s FC account total increased from £X to £Y between 01/01/2017 and 01/07/2017 giving an annualised return of 11.71% without any theories or fancy calculations. This strategy works well up until about 10k investment if you are looking 15% plus return (as liquidity is enough to keep a good diversification) Above 10k, and you start to struggle getting enough liquidity in the D,E's to maintain above 15% annual return, and then you have to buy more of what does become available (which kills your diversification) Ultimately a couple of "black swan" defaults will come, and it doesn't take many of them to wipe out most of the profits... i.e. for your £X to £Y between 01/01/2017 and 01/07/2017 I suspect you got lucky and had 0 defaults, but I also suspect that a single default would wipe out the vast majority of those profits You're correct in saying I had no defaults, I fail to see how one default would wipe out the majority of the profits. The trick is volume, volume and more volume.
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Post by spiker on Jul 3, 2017 16:17:00 GMT
Lets say you have 20k to invest if you buy every C,D,E loan and flip before first payment. then APPROX you'll have to buy about £500 of each loan. (Theres simply not enough throughput of new loans to invest all your 20k if you buy less) This will get you an average of approx 15% per year. or approx £250 a month profit. So a default will cost you 2 months worth of earnings, a few of these defaults and the strategy becomes not much better than using autobid....
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Stonk
Stonking
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Post by Stonk on Jul 3, 2017 19:10:20 GMT
A bit of loan book analysis. The following loans have defaulted before the first repayment: 922 30/01/2012 A 3696 24/10/2013 B 5034 25/02/2014 D 7311 12/08/2014 C 9292 02/12/2014 A 16507 15/10/2015 A+ 18804 07/01/2016 A 25739 14/09/2016 B 26857 12/10/2016 D 27560 31/10/2016 D 28854 28/11/2016 C 32233 08/02/2017 B 37958 05/06/2017 D I would add a bit more information for perspective. Of the above 13 loans which defaulted before first payment, 7 were whole loans which never sullied our screens. Of the 6 which did bite us, 4 have been completely recovered (less 70 pence). The remaining 2, the most recent, were for £60,600 in total. 922 A £40,000 (recovered) 3696 B £100,000 (£99,999.30 recovered) 5034 D £90,000 (recovered) 7311 C £184,220 (recovered) 25739 B £50,000 37958 D £10,600I don't know enough FC history to know whether the earlier recoveries were truly recovered from the borrower, or merely refunded by FC.
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Stonk
Stonking
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Post by Stonk on Jul 3, 2017 21:03:54 GMT
Lets say you have 20k to invest if you buy every C,D,E loan and flip before first payment. then APPROX you'll have to buy about £500 of each loan. (Theres simply not enough throughput of new loans to invest all your 20k if you buy less) This will get you an average of approx 15% per year. or approx £250 a month profit. So a default will cost you 2 months worth of earnings, a few of these defaults and the strategy becomes not much better than using autobid.... It is not as bleak as that. In the 3 months of April to June 2017, there were on average 120 new C/D/E loans per month. You'll only have to buy £167 of each to keep £20K invested. Let's call it £200, to allow for selling a few days before the payment. The loanbook analysis above, taken with the fact that the same period a year earlier there were 76 new C/D/E loans per month (to judge increase in business), might suggest that 1 or 2 or 3 of them per year will go bad before the first payment. Each default losing £200 knocks 1 percentage point off your "ideal" 15% return. So you might get 13% or even 12% if you are unlucky. There's obviously a fair bit of guesswork here, but it would take a stretch of quite extraordinarily bad luck to bring your return down to that of AutoBid. Of course, you are unlikely to be able to get £200 of every single C/D/E loan that appears, but that doesn't affect the calculation because the defaults will be proportionately more likely to occur to loans you did not buy.
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Post by df on Jul 4, 2017 0:46:04 GMT
Up until now, I've made a pretty decent return from flipping.... buy heavy in a D or (if I'm lucky to get hold of one) an E then try to sell before the first, second or third payment. Buying heavy introduces a black swan risk: the rare occasion that I'm still holding a heavy stake whilst the company goes belly up by the first or second payment. Within a few days I've had a fast food business go late on the first payment leaving me exposed to the sum of £1500. Then today 37958 has been defaulted just three weeks after taking out the loan. Bang goes another £1600. The fast food business is particularly... interesting... a quick search on Companies House shows that the director appears to have a history of indebted businesses that get struck off.... Ah well, I shall chalk it down to experience. It does confirm a point I was making a few weeks ago that those who bemoan the "guaranteed" returns of the flippers don't necessarily accept that it is still quite a risky approach. I've never bought any E loans, but was curious why they never appear in 'loan requests', only in 'loan parts'
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justme
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Post by justme on Jul 4, 2017 7:07:24 GMT
Now you know.
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mikeb
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Post by mikeb on Jul 5, 2017 18:04:39 GMT
I was being somewhat sarcastic. As FC give the loans a credit rating I would assume they had some liability in ensuring that the ratings reflect some definitions of reality. Well, we all know that Funding Circle "only lend to strong and stable, creditworthy businesses" ... they were just ahead of their time in the new-speak meaning of "strong and stable".
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Post by sanmiguel on Aug 1, 2017 9:46:10 GMT
i'm a newbie to fc 2mths in and doing ok, i have used autobid and bought parts occasionally to add interest, i'm dissapointed that autobid bought parts in loans that have now defaulted (3) within a week of buying, but when reading on here i have been duped into buying other investors bad loans, how naive of me to think i was investing in an honest platform where i would be at least be protected from the sharks, i know there are risks but i didnt expect to be ripped off by other investors.!!
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wysiati
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Post by wysiati on Aug 1, 2017 12:05:54 GMT
i'm a newbie to fc 2mths in and doing ok, i have used autobid and bought parts occasionally to add interest, i'm dissapointed that autobid bought parts in loans that have now defaulted (3) within a week of buying, but when reading on here i have been duped into buying other investors bad loans, how naive of me to think i was investing in an honest platform where i would be at least be protected from the sharks, i know there are risks but i didnt expect to be ripped off by other investors.!! Your Funding Circle experience is certainly not unique. I guess the platform would point out that loans which are in arrears cannot be sold, as with downgraded 'no risk band' loans where some form of 'material' credit event has occurred. As such, FC would probably argue that, at the point of transfer, these were not 'bad loans'. As for being 'duped' by other investors, I would guess that a (small) minority of sellers have direct knowledge of specific adverse developments w.r.t. the underlying borrowers. Many more adopt 'mechanical' loan part selling strategies, e.g. selling before x repayments have been made/attempted, or selling a.s.a.p. if a borrower which has been late with a repayment then pays those arrears and so the related loan becomes tradable again, at least until the next scheduled repayment date. So, selling is more likely to be based on a defined set of trading rules or safety first principles rather than anything approaching 'insider knowledge'. Secondary market sales do require two willing parties and, by not discriminating on some factors Autobid can fall into the 'greater fools' category. Unless you can manually root out potential problem loans it is arguable that secondary market purchases may be more likely to result in an adverse selection of loans, although FC's own data used to suggest that a significant proportion of manual only investors failed to outperform the much maligned Autobid. The task for secondary market purchasers is made more difficult because FC does not reveal to investors all potentially relevant information w.r.t. credit events involving borrowers. For example, based on previous incidents and subsequent discussions with FC, it has not in the past disclosed all instances of CCJs against a borrower. I was informed at the time that these are deemed material only when in excess of c.£10,000! So, there may be many CCJs which have gone unreported but which might have had an influence on a lender's decision to purchase or retain related loan parts. IIRC, in the earlier days of FC there were even some actual insolvencies which had not been disclosed to borrowers, and these remained hidden until a big enough stink was made about the situation on a public forum and the, albeit far from comprehensive, loan comments function was introduced in response. In addition to the list provided by spiker above, there is another related category of loan, also relatively rare, whereby the borrower never made any repayments but was not defaulted prior to that first payment. Examples include the 3696 loan mentioned in the list and, most recently 35677. In the case of 3696 this was defaulted 3 days after the third repayment date had passed with no repayments having been made; FC refunded investor's capital on the basis that, "We have made the discretionary decision to do this before the recoveries process is complete due to the circumstances with this case, where the business borrowed for working capital but failed to make any repayments". Times have changed and 35677 is now 80 days late and has still not been defaulted. There was a winding up petition published around the time of the first repayment due date. Given the time required to reach that stage it seems highly possible that this potential action was known to the borrower at the time of the loan request being listed on the platform; this could suggest a failure to disclose relevant information and/or a failure of platform due diligence. However, whereas before the platform did the decent thing and refunded investors there is no sign of that this time. Standards, imo, appear to have slipped so caution, as ever, is advised.
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ceejay
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Post by ceejay on Aug 1, 2017 13:12:05 GMT
Times have changed and 35677 is now 80 days late and has still not been defaulted. There was a winding up petition published around the time of the first repayment due date. Given the time required to reach that stage it seems highly possible that this potential action was known to the borrower at the time of the loan request being listed on the platform; this could suggest a failure to disclose relevant information and/or a failure of platform due diligence. However, whereas before the platform did the decent thing and refunded investors there is no sign of that this time. Standards, imo, appear to have slipped so caution, as ever, is advised. In the case of 35677 (in which I am thrilled to be able to say I have an interest!), the first payment was due on the 13th of May, and I presume the loan funds would have been issued a month before that. The winding up petition was published on June 12th, and "presented" (I guess this means form submitted) on May 19th. So, in this case, it seems that the loan would have been listed a full month before this other creditor took action - so, although one might imagine that the borrower knew that the vultures were circling (why else take out a high interest loan?), they may well not have been aware that they were about to strike. FC first publicly noted there was an issue, 2 days after the first payment was due. Can anyone tell me at what point this loan would have become non-tradeable? Is it as soon as payment is late?
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markr
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Post by markr on Aug 1, 2017 13:14:57 GMT
i'm a newbie to fc 2mths in and doing ok, i have used autobid and bought parts occasionally to add interest, i'm dissapointed that autobid bought parts in loans that have now defaulted (3) within a week of buying, but when reading on here i have been duped into buying other investors bad loans, how naive of me to think i was investing in an honest platform where i would be at least be protected from the sharks, i know there are risks but i didnt expect to be ripped off by other investors.!! You haven't been duped or ripped off by anybody. Autobid is a tool of convenience; you put in your funds, set it up how you like it, click go and forget about it. Autobid will manage your account and, historically at least, earn you a reasonable return. It is also possible to turn off autobid and actively manage your account yourself. It takes considerable time and effort, but by putting this effort in it is possible (although by no means guaranteed) to get better returns than autobid. What you seem to be saying is either: 1. You want the returns of the manual investors but without bothering to put in the effort. Well, tough, there's no such thing as a free lunch, or 2. You want manual bidding banned so everyone is dragged back to your level. A valid view, if a bit of a dog-in-a-manger attitude, but beware of unintended consequences. Banning manual investing is likely to lead to a loss of retail funds from the platform, and hence more loans going as whole loans. The 3 loans you bought were not bad loans when you bought them, otherwise they would be unsaleable. It is occasionally possible to detect that a loan has become more risky, and the manual investors will sell these loans quickly if they uncover the problem. However, this is quite rare, and most "flippers" just apply fairly crude algorithms to their investing ("Sell after X months" is a common strategy, for example). The huge majority of these loans parts go on to pay without problem. I notice you've failed to say how many loan parts autobid has bought or you that *haven't* defaulted; if it isn't considerably more than 3 then you've been very unlucky (in the sense that, by chance, you're in the "bad" tail of the normal distribution rather than any mystical or divine interpretation of luck).
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bg
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Post by bg on Aug 1, 2017 13:16:58 GMT
i'm a newbie to fc 2mths in and doing ok, i have used autobid and bought parts occasionally to add interest, i'm dissapointed that autobid bought parts in loans that have now defaulted (3) within a week of buying, but when reading on here i have been duped into buying other investors bad loans, how naive of me to think i was investing in an honest platform where i would be at least be protected from the sharks, i know there are risks but i didnt expect to be ripped off by other investors.!! No, its almost certainly just bad luck. It often seems that way that you get a cluster of defaults very soon after each oither then nothing else for months (well for me at least). If ytou are diversified it shouldn't be an issue and will average out over time. If a loan runs into difficulties or misses a payment it is suspended by FC. Any loan you buy is 'good'. The only thing you could possibly be missing is a loan that has been late on a payment in the past that has been made upto date. You won't know that it has been late on a past payment - but that in itself is not necessarily an indicator of anything bad. It could just be that the company changed their bank accounts, or somebody forgot to do something.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Aug 1, 2017 14:09:53 GMT
Actually you will (usually) know it has been late on a payment, IFF FC has bothered to document it in the loan comments and IFF you actually read same. Of course Autobodge does not do any such reading, and is quite liable to buy 'dented' SM parts which a manual buyer would run a mile from. If people put something up for sale, there is usually a reason .. sometimes a good reason ('I need the cash for my holiday') sometimes a dubious one ('This loan is a ticking bomb, let me pass it on'). Caveat emptor applies. I still have an Egg Farm part bought on the SM (at a very attractive interest rate at the time) which was late, later, RBR, defaulted, and now enjoying full legal action (5 years later) .. my bad, for a) letting autobodge loose in the first place and b) failing to unload it again when I (briefly) had a chance.
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fasty
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Post by fasty on Aug 1, 2017 14:14:56 GMT
In my opinion, almost any loan on the SM is a riskier purchase than a fresh one from the PM. I see a small "peak" of risk at first payment of a new loan (will the borrower actually make any payments, or simply do a runner?) Then risk seem to slowly ramp up over the following months; it's not unsurprising that some people re-sell after a few months. Buyer beware!
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Post by sanmiguel on Aug 1, 2017 15:21:06 GMT
Thanks for the replies and some of the advice, ive been on ratesetter for just over a yr and at 5.5% yr and 3 bonus payments i am happy with that, i am now gaining a bit of knowledge on fc, i wish i'd have had a yoda sat at the side of me when first investing on fc, i'm not complaining about the returns because i have 340 loan parts and 3 defaults, i guess i am a lazy investor, (fool and his money and all that bull) the loans were not new loans and payments had already been missed, a ccj was about to be placed on another account, i genuinely didnt know investors could flip these loans to make profit and sell out before they think the 1st 2nd or 3rd payment will be missed or sell on loans that look like they are going bad and they would be picked up by a novice investor like myself innocently using autobid, maybe they should be making the loans instead of the fc loan arrangers as they seem to be very clever.
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