cb25
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Post by cb25 on May 15, 2018 21:20:36 GMT
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Post by lynnanthony on May 16, 2018 15:01:00 GMT
Living longer has by far the longer affect. Think of is person who died at 60 needs a house for 60 man years. If he lives to 80 he needs an extra 33% of man years house. Net migration affect is far smaller. True. For that one man. But the only relevant figure is the average one, where the average man who might have died at 75 now dies at 80. He needs roughly an extra 6% of man house years.
(Google "average life expectancy uk" for a nice graph)
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Post by eascogo on May 16, 2018 16:56:03 GMT
Living longer has by far the longer affect. Think of is person who died at 60 needs a house for 60 man years. If he lives to 80 he needs an extra 33% of man years house. Net migration affect is far smaller. True. For that one man. But the only relevant figure is the average one, where the average man who might have died at 75 now dies at 80. He needs roughly an extra 6% of man house years.
(Google "average life expectancy uk" for a nice graph)
I prefer a more realistic estimate taking in present age and offering further individual adjustments. See here
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starfished
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Post by starfished on May 16, 2018 20:54:43 GMT
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Post by propman on May 18, 2018 10:21:11 GMT
AIUI surveys reveal an ever increasing proportion of people who wish to live in a smaller household than they do. This includes people stuck living with their parents, but also people sharing out of necessity. I expect that this pushes demand and hence prices more than many appreciate.
As someone involved in the property development sector I have a few other comments:
1) land prices are determined by the expected difference between costs to build (including holding and planning costs) and the expected sale price (net of sale costs). As a result, they cannot afford to reduce prices below those initially expected without losing money. Even deals facilitated by Local Authorities are on this basis. Often profits above those initially projected are shared with the local authority, but any loses are solely for the developer.
2) Large scale housing can only be done by either pre-selling or delivering at a rate that can be sold as they are available. The former is only realistic for a rental market as few will be willing to lock themselves into a house purchase with a substantial delay to delivery. The latter will slow the delivery of housing. The above comments about reducing foreign or multiple ownership would kill the PRS market already badly effected by the stamp duty surcharge and the reduction in interest relief to landlords. The combination of reduced economic confidence (Brexit and house price concerns) and weakenng in PRS purchases has significantly reduced the viability of many housing schemes that will delay house delivery at least in London.
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on May 18, 2018 11:23:45 GMT
I have recently made an investment in a fairly nice 2 bedroom flat with an unmortgage-able short under 50 year lease (about half the market price of a similar flat with a mortgage-able lease, was a distressed sale and the estate agent was not happy I got it at that price but it was me or the bailiffs). even if I don't renew the lease I should get about 7% inflation adjusted irr over the remaining term
Government are saying they are reforming the lease laws so when they do I stand to make a pretty decent profit renewing the lease cheaply and then selling it on. If not I'll just leave it as an income stream
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sarahcount
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Post by sarahcount on May 18, 2018 19:57:26 GMT
I have recently made an investment in a fairly nice 2 bedroom flat with an unmortgage-able short under 50 year lease (about half the market price of a similar flat with a mortgage-able lease, was a distressed sale and the estate agent was not happy I got it at that price but it was me or the bailiffs). even if I don't renew the lease I should get about 7% inflation adjusted irr over the remaining term Government are saying they are reforming the lease laws so when they do I stand to make a pretty decent profit renewing the lease cheaply and then selling it on. If not I'll just leave it as an income stream Good for you. Before I came to p2p I seriously looked into picking up an short lease property for all the reasons that you mention. However I soon came to the conclusion that the estate agents had the market sewn up and had their own preferred buyers who no doubt looked after them nicely. Even being able to jump quickly for a good BTL just released to the market is difficult when still in employment and not able to rush off for a viewing whenever you feel like it. So here I am diversified across S&S and p2p (maybe a little more than I like in retrospect) but without a second property to boast about at dinner parties.
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on May 19, 2018 7:32:17 GMT
I have recently made an investment in a fairly nice 2 bedroom flat with an unmortgage-able short under 50 year lease (about half the market price of a similar flat with a mortgage-able lease, was a distressed sale and the estate agent was not happy I got it at that price but it was me or the bailiffs). even if I don't renew the lease I should get about 7% inflation adjusted irr over the remaining term Government are saying they are reforming the lease laws so when they do I stand to make a pretty decent profit renewing the lease cheaply and then selling it on. If not I'll just leave it as an income stream Good for you. Before I came to p2p I seriously looked into picking up an short lease property for all the reasons that you mention. However I soon came to the conclusion that the estate agents had the market sewn up and had their own preferred buyers who no doubt looked after them nicely.  What I think went right was 1) Unmortgageable so only cash buyers 2) Distressed sale with the wolves at the door 3) Reasonably expensive so limits the number of people who have that amount of cash about 4) Previous more reasonable offer had fallen through 5) Uncertainty in the housing market 6) My willingness to view it as a long term cash flow and gamble on the lease extension cost.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on May 19, 2018 7:57:42 GMT
Good for you. Before I came to p2p I seriously looked into picking up an short lease property for all the reasons that you mention. However I soon came to the conclusion that the estate agents had the market sewn up and had their own preferred buyers who no doubt looked after them nicely. You’re pretty naive if you think the estate agent cares that much about how much the property sold for. I
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on May 19, 2018 8:12:32 GMT
It might be worth looking at it again, this might be one of the best investments I have ever made especially with the changes to the leasehold renew legislation coming though, (I could make 35% capital gain by renewing the lease then selling it as a mortgeageable property if they change the rules within the next year). I think you are right about the estate agents having preferred buyers and not wanting to sell at a massively reduced price - the agent literally exploded on me when I told him I thought I got it for a fair price when I collected the keys What I think went right was 1) Unmortgageable so only cash buyers 2) Distressed sale with the wolves at the door 3) Reasonably expensive so limits the number of people who have that amount of cash about 4) Previous more reasonable offer had fallen through 5) Uncertainty in the housing market 6) My willingness to view it as a long term cash flow and gamble on the lease extension cost. You’re pretty naive if you think the estate agent cares that much about how much the property sold for. The estate agent is the managing agent for the block and manages most of the sales for it - so has a vested interest outside of this transaction. It does not look good when he has made a sale that far under his initial estimate. Anyhow, if you have the money to do it and like myself reducing your exposure to P2P, I think unmortgageable short term leases are a pretty good bet at the moment.
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Post by gugulete on May 23, 2018 14:05:16 GMT
I have recently made an investment in a fairly nice 2 bedroom flat with an unmortgage-able short under 50 year lease (about half the market price of a similar flat with a mortgage-able lease, was a distressed sale and the estate agent was not happy I got it at that price but it was me or the bailiffs). even if I don't renew the lease I should get about 7% inflation adjusted irr over the remaining term Government are saying they are reforming the lease laws so when they do I stand to make a pretty decent profit renewing the lease cheaply and then selling it on. If not I'll just leave it as an income stream Good for you. Before I came to p2p I seriously looked into picking up an short lease property for all the reasons that you mention. However I soon came to the conclusion that the estate agents had the market sewn up and had their own preferred buyers who no doubt looked after them nicely. Even being able to jump quickly for a good BTL just released to the market is difficult when still in employment and not able to rush off for a viewing whenever you feel like it. So here I am diversified across S&S and p2p (maybe a little more than I like in retrospect) but without a second property to boast about at dinner parties. Can You please tell me what S&S investments are ? Thank You.
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tomp
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Post by tomp on May 23, 2018 14:12:52 GMT
Good for you. Before I came to p2p I seriously looked into picking up an short lease property for all the reasons that you mention. However I soon came to the conclusion that the estate agents had the market sewn up and had their own preferred buyers who no doubt looked after them nicely. Even being able to jump quickly for a good BTL just released to the market is difficult when still in employment and not able to rush off for a viewing whenever you feel like it. So here I am diversified across S&S and p2p (maybe a little more than I like in retrospect) but without a second property to boast about at dinner parties. Can You please tell me what S&S investments are ? Thank You. stock and shares ?
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Post by gugulete on May 23, 2018 15:09:55 GMT
Thanks.
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sarahcount
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Post by sarahcount on May 23, 2018 16:06:13 GMT
Good for you. Before I came to p2p I seriously looked into picking up an short lease property for all the reasons that you mention. However I soon came to the conclusion that the estate agents had the market sewn up and had their own preferred buyers who no doubt looked after them nicely. Even being able to jump quickly for a good BTL just released to the market is difficult when still in employment and not able to rush off for a viewing whenever you feel like it. So here I am diversified across S&S and p2p (maybe a little more than I like in retrospect) but without a second property to boast about at dinner parties. Can You please tell me what S&S investments are ? Thank You. Yes stock and shares. A couple of years ago I took the view that the stock market was too high and heading for some sort of correction so decided to spread my risk into p2p as a diversification.
Wouldn't you know it. While p2p is increasingly challenging the stock market has been powering on to higher and higher levels.
Instead of all my time spend worrying about defaults, overdue loans, platform stability etc I could have put more into index trackers and kept my life my own.
Of course this is all hindsight. A diversified portfolio of shares, loans, property, bonds and cash etc is probably still the most sensible.
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Post by gugulete on May 23, 2018 20:42:05 GMT
I'm only involved in rental properties and P2P, but I want to buy ETFs through Degiro or ETF-Matic, but I also want 20% of this portfolio in gold-funded funds, which would protect me the eventuality of a financial crisis. I am still in the study phase with the ETF investents. What do you think about what I want to do?
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What I think went right was 1) Unmortgageable so only cash buyers 2) Distressed sale with the wolves at the door 3) Reasonably expensive so limits the number of people who have that amount of cash about 4) Previous more reasonable offer had fallen through 5) Uncertainty in the housing market 6) My willingness to view it as a long term cash flow and gamble on the lease extension cost.