hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Jun 10, 2018 9:52:36 GMT
It's probably too early to say that the market will move sideways indefinitely. However the days of holding a particular share are probably over due to a number of factors, the global economy, the rise of tech, political instability etc. How many companies that were in the FTS100 thirty years ago even exist any more? How many of the top 10 global shares existed 20 years ago? That's not to say that there is no future in equities for a buy and hold strategy, just that what you need to buy is a solid fund or an index tracker. If you strip out inflation, currency movements and sentiment then logically in the long term the total market should move in line with growth in the productive economy in other words about twice GDP growth. ah yes, thanks for refreshing my focus on the logic in this. Articles I'd seen didn't make distinction between to individual shares and funds. These articles you are reading are usually written by active fund managers who want you to pay them a high fee to beat the market, which evidence has shown the overwhelming majority do not. If you are in the accumulation stage of wealth building then a sideways or down market is good for you, as you are buying more shares at cheaper prices. Just gotta hold on to that job so you have the money to keep buying
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Jun 11, 2018 8:57:12 GMT
ah yes, thanks for refreshing my focus on the logic in this. Articles I'd seen didn't make distinction between to individual shares and funds. These articles you are reading are usually written by active fund managers who want you to pay them a high fee to beat the market, which evidence has shown the overwhelming majority do not. If you are in the accumulation stage of wealth building then a sideways or down market is good for you, as you are buying more shares at cheaper prices. Just gotta hold on to that job so you have the money to keep buying so, apart from keeping hold of a job, somewhat akin to the shock horror facial expression on an IFA I saw about my p2p activity? I've seen others say this is why IFAs don't like p2p, because they lose their status and income. On the other hand this particular one did advertise no loss in a year of 15% drop world wide, with a bundle of managed funds. Perhaps the skill was knowing which managed funds to have in the bundle. Or perhaps, the world wide 15% drop was a false comparitor.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Jun 11, 2018 10:10:03 GMT
These articles you are reading are usually written by active fund managers who want you to pay them a high fee to beat the market, which evidence has shown the overwhelming majority do not. If you are in the accumulation stage of wealth building then a sideways or down market is good for you, as you are buying more shares at cheaper prices. Just gotta hold on to that job so you have the money to keep buying so, apart from keeping hold of a job, somewhat akin to the shock horror facial expression on an IFA I saw about my p2p activity? I've seen others say this is why IFAs don't like p2p, because they lose their status and income. On the other hand this particular one did advertise no loss in a year of 15% drop world wide, with a bundle of managed funds. Perhaps the skill was knowing which managed funds to have in the bundle. Or perhaps, the world wide 15% drop was a false comparitor. You would need to know what was in the bundle . It would have to be 100% equities to compare to the world index. If it held bonds/cash then that alone could account for the reduced drop, but will reduce returns in the long term. IFAs are usually just salespeople.
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Jun 11, 2018 18:49:04 GMT
These articles you are reading are usually written by active fund managers who want you to pay them a high fee to beat the market, which evidence has shown the overwhelming majority do not. If you are in the accumulation stage of wealth building then a sideways or down market is good for you, as you are buying more shares at cheaper prices. Just gotta hold on to that job so you have the money to keep buying so, apart from keeping hold of a job, somewhat akin to the shock horror facial expression on an IFA I saw about my p2p activity? I've seen others say this is why IFAs don't like p2p, because they lose their status and income. On the other hand this particular one did advertise no loss in a year of 15% drop world wide, with a bundle of managed funds. Perhaps the skill was knowing which managed funds to have in the bundle. Or perhaps, the world wide 15% drop was a false comparitor. Buying managed funds is a bit like paying someone else to gamble with your money and there is very little evidence to suggest the top fund managers are anything more than champion coin flippers. Better off saving the percentage management fee (which is a major drain over time) and have fun investing/gambling your own money.
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Jun 12, 2018 12:18:54 GMT
so, apart from keeping hold of a job, somewhat akin to the shock horror facial expression on an IFA I saw about my p2p activity? I've seen others say this is why IFAs don't like p2p, because they lose their status and income. On the other hand this particular one did advertise no loss in a year of 15% drop world wide, with a bundle of managed funds. Perhaps the skill was knowing which managed funds to have in the bundle. Or perhaps, the world wide 15% drop was a false comparitor. Buying managed funds is a bit like paying someone else to gamble with your money and there is very little evidence to suggest the top fund managers are anything more than champion coin flippers. Better off saving the percentage management fee (which is a major drain over time) and have fun investing/gambling your own money. 'champion coin flippers'? You mean they're lucky?
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Jun 12, 2018 16:27:57 GMT
Buying managed funds is a bit like paying someone else to gamble with your money and there is very little evidence to suggest the top fund managers are anything more than champion coin flippers. Better off saving the percentage management fee (which is a major drain over time) and have fun investing/gambling your own money. 'champion coin flippers'? You mean they're lucky? They tend to sell their services based on past performance - which is probably more to do with luck and not skill. Just like someone claiming to be the world champion coin flipper would just have been lucky and not had a skill at flipping coins 
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Jun 13, 2018 11:00:19 GMT
'champion coin flippers'? You mean they're lucky? They tend to sell their services based on past performance - which is probably more to do with luck and not skill. Just like someone claiming to be the world champion coin flipper would just have been lucky and not had a skill at flipping coins ok, so niaive question, sorry if annoying to some, but all funds appear 'managed to me', in that they have a name, eg s&p global is mentioned a fair bit rather than trying to gamble on the market oneself. Is that global fund not managed a bit? Or just cheaper for more hands off by s&p?
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Jun 13, 2018 11:08:42 GMT
so, apart from keeping hold of a job, somewhat akin to the shock horror facial expression on an IFA I saw about my p2p activity? I've seen others say this is why IFAs don't like p2p, because they lose their status and income. On the other hand this particular one did advertise no loss in a year of 15% drop world wide, with a bundle of managed funds. Perhaps the skill was knowing which managed funds to have in the bundle. Or perhaps, the world wide 15% drop was a false comparitor. You would need to know what was in the bundle . It would have to be 100% equities to compare to the world index. If it held bonds/cash then that alone could account for the reduced drop, but will reduce returns in the long term. IFAs are usually just salespeople. yes, think much would have been in bonds/cash. I'd credit them for knowing when to move investments into this though, or how much to hold in each. Also they make decisions around which markets to pull out of. In making decisions on when to put equities into cash, before the recent fall, it was hard to know which news or forecasting to believe, owing in part to my knowing that there's possibly another agenda in many recommendations.
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Jun 13, 2018 11:27:40 GMT
ok, so niaive question, sorry if annoying to some, but all funds appear 'managed to me', in that they have a name, eg s&p global is mentioned a fair bit rather than trying to gamble on the market oneself. Is that global fund not managed a bit? Or just cheaper for more hands off by s&p? No. "Managed" in this context means they use their skill and judgment to buy and sell company shares and the right times in order to get a superior return for you. The alternative is "passive" where buying and selling is done blindly according to a set of clearly defined rules. The issue is managed funds actually don't usually do that well plus they charge 1% or more for doing worse than the average. Passive funds typically charge a lot less. One of the most sucessfull investors ever (Warren buffet) recommends everyone should buy cheap tracker funds. thank you. Yes, I see. Reassuring.
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macq
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Post by macq on Jun 13, 2018 12:51:45 GMT
But the ironic thing is that Warren Buffett one of the best investors ever runs a managed fund that has beaten the market many times over (and you could throw another couple of many's into that phrase)but he reason's that you will not find another him.You could spend time and find the few funds that have done well such as Fundsmith,Lindsell Train,Scottish Mortgage and there are others out there but with no guarantee that their run continues would you be happier with the market average.I hold a mixture of both and in most cases the actives are out performing the passive by enough that the fee is worth it(for now!)
But in going passive you still need to check the tracking error due to fees etc as Two trackers following the same index may have different results
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Jun 15, 2018 7:30:35 GMT
But the ironic thing is that Warren Buffett one of the best investors ever runs a managed fund that has beaten the market many times over (and you could throw another couple of many's into that phrase)but he reason's that you will not find another him.You could spend time and find the few funds that have done well such as Fundsmith,Lindsell Train,Scottish Mortgage and there are others out there but with no guarantee that their run continues would you be happier with the market average.I hold a mixture of both and in most cases the actives are out performing the passive by enough that the fee is worth it(for now!) But in going passive you still need to check the tracking error due to fees etc as Two trackers following the same index may have different results I looked up those particular managed funds - they seem at a peak, unless that is the starting incline for a managed fund. Interesting other points.
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Jun 15, 2018 7:36:34 GMT
Different angle on the thread title. If one is at a maxiumum with p2p (based on risk of capital) and fully used ISA allowance, and needs access within 6months. What's best? I can only find premium bonds (could be a don't mention around here?) as tax exempt, and possibly likely to offer something better than current cash offers. Based on this fun calculator designed to look a bit like a slot machine  www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/premium-bonds-calculator/ |
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Jun 15, 2018 7:57:54 GMT
Remember you get 2k dividends tax free and 11.5k cap gains tax free outside of ISAS. Once you have enough money you need to start investing in non tax sheltered accounts
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Jun 15, 2018 10:15:34 GMT
Remember you get 2k dividends tax free and 11.5k cap gains tax free outside of ISAS. Once you have enough money you need to start investing in non tax sheltered accounts Thanks, I use this to the best of my judgement, but in my experience equity dips at first, and I need relatively reliable access.
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macq
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Post by macq on Jun 15, 2018 11:05:17 GMT
But the ironic thing is that Warren Buffett one of the best investors ever runs a managed fund that has beaten the market many times over (and you could throw another couple of many's into that phrase)but he reason's that you will not find another him.You could spend time and find the few funds that have done well such as Fundsmith,Lindsell Train,Scottish Mortgage and there are others out there but with no guarantee that their run continues would you be happier with the market average.I hold a mixture of both and in most cases the actives are out performing the passive by enough that the fee is worth it(for now!) But in going passive you still need to check the tracking error due to fees etc as Two trackers following the same index may have different results I looked up those particular managed funds - they seem at a peak, unless that is the starting incline for a managed fund. Interesting other points. Fair point about the funds could be at a high point but no way of knowing if they are at a peak but you could say the same about a tracker when it's index hits a new high its at its peak and when the market drops the tracker can only go one way.What a passive investor may say is that the managed fund such as the ones i mentioned may not be able to keep up the extra growth and revert to under preforming which could be very true( but an active investor may say the tracker can't beat the market)
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