agent69
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Post by agent69 on Sept 14, 2018 19:56:14 GMT
Not quite. It was a stress testing scenario for the banks, no more and no less. Given the previous fragility of banks (remember 10 years ago?) that was entirely prudent. What headline writers choose to make of it is another matter altogether.
His worst-case scenario was that house prices could fall as much as 35% over three years, a source told the BBC. I'm going for a stroll down the pub in a minute. The worst case scenario is that I could get run over by a bus while crossing the road.
Don't think it's going to stop me going though
Edit: ok the worst case scenario is really that they've run out of beer when I get there.
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Sept 14, 2018 20:44:08 GMT
Not quite. It was a stress testing scenario for the banks, no more and no less. Given the previous fragility of banks (remember 10 years ago?) that was entirely prudent. What headline writers choose to make of it is another matter altogether.
The BBC, not known for being biased in favour of Brexit, say at www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45516678 : The Bank of England's governor has warned the cabinet that a chaotic no-deal Brexit could crash house prices and send another financial shock through the economy. Mark Carney met senior ministers on Thursday to discuss the risks of a disorderly exit from the EU. His worst-case scenario was that house prices could fall as much as 35% over three years, a source told the BBC. The warning echoes some of the Bank's previous comments. The Bank of England routinely carries out "stress tests" to check whether the banking system can withstand extreme financial shocks. Its latest one was conducted in November, when it said a 33% fall in house prices could occur in a worst-case scenario. the analysis further down is better "It was an apocalyptic test where the Bank deliberately sets the parameters beyond what might reasonably be expected to occur. The major banks all passed the test, giving reassurance that the financial system can cope with whatever happens next year." Etc. So the stress test was for a scenario not expected to happen. So how far off of what Carney thinks could happen in terms of the housing market, was his stress test?
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cwah
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Post by cwah on Sept 16, 2018 10:53:57 GMT
Alternative investment i do S&P500
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ding
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Post by ding on Sept 16, 2018 12:47:25 GMT
Additional fund raising. Price is lower then current trading price.
I'm considering it, but already have £10k
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stevio
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Post by stevio on Sept 16, 2018 12:52:11 GMT
Alternative investment i do S&P500 Case in point, you will always get someone express a view that your investment is better/worse than something else - people naturally like to justify the decisions they made previously So S&P 500, overpriced and brink of bust OR significantly out performing UK and world markets Property, headed for a crash after consistently increasing and/or Brexit OR diversification to S&S and P2P This thread was for alternative investment ideas, but its good to discuss the perceived risks of those too
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Post by fatbritabroad on Sept 16, 2018 18:06:50 GMT
Fwiw i plan to use mostly the easy auto diversified p2p sites and keep them at about 20% of my non pension investments. At the moment to provide stable growth at above average interest on a portion of my investments
I'm 37 so at the moment I'm at 30% of my non pension non property net worth split between 4 or 5 sites mostly for the new refer a friend bonus between me and my partner.
My investment make up is
1)company pension 153k and contribute 12% of my salary with company contributions of 6% on top
2) equities 60k. Majority in trackers (lifestrategy 100 and blackrock consensus 60 as this is for shorter term needs so don't want it as volatile) with 10k split in pantheon, cty vanguard small company index and fundsmith as satellites to have a bit of a punt effectively
3)20k in p2p split 5300k in abl where my biggest single investment in a single borrower (, not loan) is less than my interest at £500.6k in lending works.6k in assetz capital in their 30 day and quick access account 2k in Kufflink £1000 in ratesetter
Also 8k in a couple of Saye schemes at my work and 9k in cash in high interest accounts
This feels reasonably diversified though potentially above average in risk? . But I'm relatively young. If one of my p2p went I'd be gutted but I wouldn't lose my house. If they all went I'd be sick but I wouldn't lose my house. My plan is to open a new ifisa every year and Continue to diversify across multiple p2p sites that I feel are OK but put 2/3 of my available liquid investments into equities to reduce my exposure to no more than 20% eventually having around 200k in p2p and 800k to the a million in standard investments. At 5% to 6% this will give me 12k a year stable income with the rest coming from investments
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2018 18:16:45 GMT
fatbritabroad I'm 36 and reading your investment thoughts dovetail very closely with mine. Approx 20% in P2P diversified across 9 platforms. 50% in equities almost entirely in Vanguard trackers. The remainder is currently split across company shares, BTL on PropertyPartner, REITS (which I've currently chosen to hold over Bonds which offer pitiful returns) and a cash element. Low ongoing workload is a driving factor in my current choices!
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Post by fatbritabroad on Sept 16, 2018 18:29:52 GMT
Hi jester are you prepared to list the sites you use? I'm building slowly so always interested in other sites as I'll need alot more if I want to build up to 200k. Fwiw I'm very conscious of the platform risk. May be kidding myself but originally I only went for full fca registered sites mainly for the isa wrapper but the with the collateral debacle I'd hope that at least the moneys in the right place if it goes pear shaped... |
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Post by fatbritabroad on Sept 16, 2018 19:25:24 GMT
Re property exposure I'm thinking lend invest property partner and land bay?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2018 20:28:27 GMT
Hi jester are you prepared to list the sites you use? I'm building slowly so always interested in other sites as I'll need alot more if I want to build up to 200k. Fwiw I'm very conscious of the platform risk. May be kidding myself but originally I only went for full fca registered sites mainly for the isa wrapper but the with the collateral debacle I'd hope that at least the moneys in the right place if it goes pear shaped... Well I wouldn't take it as a definitive list of platforms to use as it's a position I've evolved into and continue to evolve from but for what it's worth - Property Partner - Happy so far with regular rental dividends paid but selling properties untested Zopa - Started here and happy to hold some for platform diversification with them being a large player but currently only have safeguarded loans remaining Ratesetter - Largely content but only invest when rates are high and they can vary significantly Lending Works - So far great rates and quietly ticks along without drama Landbay - Perceived as lower risk element of my p2p holdings Orca - Aggregator Platform, As things stand only chasing the bonus as they offer platforms I am in but subject to change depending on their future offering Assetz Capital - Established platform, various black box offerings on business and property, decent rates Goji - Aggregator Platform, great for diversification across numerous platforms I'm not in or can't otherwise access Moneything - Some higher risk stuff from a well run but small niche platform Lendy - The biggest gamble on my portfolio perhaps, development loans, had many issues and am slowly departing Abundance - Diversification into renewables, sometimes think I should have gone into Green Investment Trusts instead but I leave some here as it has a fell good factor
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Post by df on Sept 16, 2018 21:12:21 GMT
Re property exposure I'm thinking lend invest property partner and land bay? I've used Landbay for about 15 months (mainly driven by £50 bonus offer), but withdrawn because the rates were too low. Lower than the advertised rate. From the memory, my investments were at approx 3.5%, but I only got 2.8% after 1 year. I don't like when the figures don't match up, but bonus made it worthwhile. Good thing about Lindsay is that the risk of loosing your capital is very low.
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macq
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Post by macq on Sept 16, 2018 21:22:38 GMT
Re property exposure I'm thinking lend invest property partner and land bay? I've used Landbay for about 15 months (mainly driven by £50 bonus offer), but withdrawn because the rates were too low. Lower than the advertised rate. From the memory, my investments were at approx 3.5%, but I only got 2.8% after 1 year. I don't like when the figures don't match up, but bonus made it worthwhile. Good thing about Lindsay is that the risk of loosing your capital is very low. I know they do cashback on queued money but is uninvested money why the lower then advertised rate? As they say no defaults or late payments yet wondering/worried how you missed the rates
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Post by dan1 on Sept 16, 2018 21:23:37 GMT
fatbritabroad I'm 36 and reading your investment thoughts dovetail very closely with mine. Approx 20% in P2P diversified across 9 platforms. 50% in equities almost entirely in Vanguard trackers. The remainder is currently split across company shares, BTL on PropertyPartner, REITS (which I've currently chosen to hold over Bonds which offer pitiful returns) and a cash element. Low ongoing workload is a driving factor in my current choices! I'm sure you've done your research and all that good stuff but I would question the use of REITS as a proxy for bonds, if I've read you correctly. I'm a bit of a hypocrite here because I'm a Monevator convert but I don't hold bonds myself because of course I know better and believe I can achieve a higher return from tarting FSCS protected cash around, the "water" element of my portfolio, i.e. lower risk lower return. I hold REITS too but they form part of my allocation to "whisky", i.e. higher risk higher return like equities. Thanks to Tim Hale for the "whisky" & "water". Historically, REITS are more highly correlated with equities than bonds. I failed to find a UK based correlation comparison but a nice looking one (2007-2016) can be seen here.... www.guggenheiminvestments.com/mf/resources/interactive-tools/asset-class-correlation-mapInvestment Grade Bonds to International Equities (I assume ex-US) = 0.13 Investment Grade Bonds to S&P 500 = 0.02 compare that to.... REITs to International Equities (I assume ex-US) = 0.69 REITs to S&P 500 = 0.76 [1 = perfect correlation] I tend to think of REITs as sitting somewhere between equities and bonds, lower risk and lower return than equities but higher risk and higher return than bonds.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Sept 16, 2018 22:13:22 GMT
REITs are definitely not a bond proxy.
Bonds are required to smooth the rollercoaster ride of equities, depending on personal risk tolerance.
I don’t have any bonds as I have a public sector pension which I can start drawing down in 16 years.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Sept 16, 2018 22:35:03 GMT
Hi jester are you prepared to list the sites you use? I'm building slowly so always interested in other sites as I'll need alot more if I want to build up to 200k. Fwiw I'm very conscious of the platform risk. May be kidding myself but originally I only went for full fca registered sites mainly for the isa wrapper but the with the collateral debacle I'd hope that at least the moneys in the right place if it goes pear shaped... Well I wouldn't take it as a definitive list of platforms to use as it's a position I've evolved into and continue to evolve from but for what it's worth - Property Partner - Happy so far with regular rental dividends paid but selling properties untested Zopa - Started here and happy to hold some for platform diversification with them being a large player but currently only have safeguarded loans remaining Ratesetter - Largely content but only invest when rates are high and they can vary significantly Lending Works - So far great rates and quietly ticks along without drama Landbay - Perceived as lower risk element of my p2p holdings Orca - Aggregator Platform, As things stand only chasing the bonus as they offer platforms I am in but subject to change depending on their future offering Assetz Capital - Established platform, various black box offerings on business and property, decent rates Goji - Aggregator Platform, great for diversification across numerous platforms I'm not in or can't otherwise access Moneything - Some higher risk stuff from a well run but small niche platform Lendy - The biggest gamble on my portfolio perhaps, development loans, had many issues and am slowly departing Abundance - Diversification into renewables, sometimes think I should have gone into Green Investment Trusts instead but I leave some here as it has a fell good factor The thing that worries me about Goji is that it is basically a bond, and therefore AFAIU if the company hits trouble you are a creditor of the company rather than a holder of the underlying security.
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