happy
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Post by happy on Aug 21, 2017 20:19:48 GMT
Welcome to the Machine! - As I am already 85% dis-invested from FC this news didn't exactly ruin my day. However, with recent unwelcome changes at Zopa and RS accelerating my departure from there also, platform diversification is starting to become a much more serious issue. Perhaps a few weeks or so relaxing on a nice warm Mediterranean beach will help me put these things into context though, I 'll worry about platform diversification in September sometime.
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blender
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Post by blender on Aug 21, 2017 20:40:38 GMT
Your 'system' requires there to always be a buyer whether they like it or not .. basically 'pass the toxic parcel and hope someone else is holding it when it implodes'. It favours someone who actively manages their portfolio every week, day or ideally nanosecond, to comb out the toxic junk .. note the word 'favours', which implies 'unfair'. If you reckon you can beat the system by deciding what to sell when, then you are also implying the lucky recipients of what you sell are going to come out worse than if you didn't have that option. Saying 'yeah well they can do the same to someone else' doesn't actually address the issue, just kicks it down the road. Yes, you're right GSV. I had been expecting this change but had also expected to be able to sell manually to dispose of the loans I have bought manually. Mine is all property and very poorly diversified, and so holding on to the point of one repayment left is too much of a risk. So I have to sell loads before 18th Sept, to give myself a few months after 18th Sept before I sell the rest. I could think that the purchasers under the new scheme will be properly diversified, and that there is nothing dodgy about property parts with one month to go. However, it has been noted that the risk profile of the property loans is very different from that of the SMEs, in that for property it is hugely end-loaded, and exploiting this is unfair and must be stopped, like flipping the risky SME loans, and selling loans which have been late but recovered. We must all, weak and strong, hold hands and cross the finishing line together in the new FC, fit for consumer lenders with ISAs. Understandable but sad.
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Post by gadget on Aug 21, 2017 21:04:20 GMT
Your 'system' requires there to always be a buyer whether they like it or not .. basically 'pass the toxic parcel and hope someone else is holding it when it implodes'. It favours someone who actively manages their portfolio every week, day or ideally nanosecond, to comb out the toxic junk .. note the word 'favours', which implies 'unfair'. If you reckon you can beat the system by deciding what to sell when, then you are also implying the lucky recipients of what you sell are going to come out worse than if you didn't have that option. Saying 'yeah well they can do the same to someone else' doesn't actually address the issue, just kicks it down the road. I really don't understand this argument. If you follow it then all share trading should be banned. As should selling bonds and loans. And property or any asset really. Some people think something will go up in price / is a good credit risk. Others that it will go down / is a bad credit risk. This difference of opinion means you can trade the asset and both sides are happy. Everyone joins FC to get "above average returns" namely better than a random bank account. Should that be banned? Should everyone get exactly 0.5% on all their money. I have no problem if people get better returns then me by putting in more work / taking more risk / being smarter than me. All i care about is that the return i do get is decent.
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mullet
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Post by mullet on Aug 21, 2017 21:40:45 GMT
Some people think something will go up in price / is a good credit risk. Others that it will go down / is a bad credit risk. This difference of opinion means you can trade the asset and both sides are happy. ......unfortunately I don't think autobid has an opinion
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blender
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Post by blender on Aug 21, 2017 21:47:44 GMT
Some people think something will go up in price / is a good credit risk. Others that it will go down / is a bad credit risk. This difference of opinion means you can trade the asset and both sides are happy. ......unfortunately I don't think autobid has an opinion This is true and is the point. Also Autobid has the role of providing liquidity for those selling anything at par, and so is structurally disadvantaged in buying when compared with a manual buyer. That is so unfair!
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Post by gadget on Aug 21, 2017 21:51:07 GMT
Some people think something will go up in price / is a good credit risk. Others that it will go down / is a bad credit risk. This difference of opinion means you can trade the asset and both sides are happy. ......unfortunately I don't think autobid has an opinion Autobid and the people that use it certainly does have an opinion. Which is that just getting a diversified portfolio is better than trying to pick out individually what is or isn't a good credit risk. And they are almost certainly right. Certainly when it comes to shares there is massive evidence that trying to stock pick and beat the market is basically pointless. Anyway we're going on a bit of a tangent here. Maybe this is what i'll use my newfound hour or two now i won't be bidding on FC. Arguing / debating pointlessly on internet forums....
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Post by df on Aug 21, 2017 23:29:38 GMT
I found the news quite disturbing this morning, but on the second thought decided that I won't be selling off. Autobid is not what I want, but I can live with it. My returns will be a little lower, but I won't need to spend any time on it. There is nowhere better to reinvest my funds if I was to withdraw anyway. I'm already above my limit-per-loan on other platforms. I can see why they've done it, simplicity appeals to a wider market... and it looks consistent - stop auctions, fade out property loans and now turning it into a 'Zopa 2018' with much higher projected returns. Genius idea It might be a coincidence, but I've noticed that investing activities on LC's loan market have increased this morning
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damar
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Post by damar on Aug 22, 2017 5:35:15 GMT
I'm now totally out, well apart from the Tewkesbury property loans, but thats another story.........
Gadget makes a good point, some people want to spend more time on their investments, and therefore get a better return, others just want the 'balance managed' portfolio, that gets them a better return than the bank, this option is now being taken away, which will suit some but not others. Personally I like to spend a bit longer as the compounded effect of the few extra percent makes a difference.
I have watched the returns go down over time on FC as it gained in popularity, but as they say, when everybody else wants to get in, its time to get out.
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Post by spiker on Aug 22, 2017 7:19:08 GMT
Approx how long does it take a withdrawal to hit the bank account?
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blender
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Post by blender on Aug 22, 2017 7:32:58 GMT
Surely net repayment is not the same as net lender withdrawal. They did not have many new PL loans yesterday and so there would be a net increase in available funds. This would be a good plan if they were expecting a jump in SM trading - for every seller there has to be a buyer. (I sold about £20k and did make withdrawals).
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number5
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Post by number5 on Aug 22, 2017 7:35:35 GMT
Hey guys...so where is everyone taking their funds now...I was investing in only FC property loans. Effectively a 'flipper' :-)
Looking for advice where I can use the same approach?
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sl125
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Post by sl125 on Aug 22, 2017 8:06:12 GMT
From a personal perspective, I am gutted that FC are changing the game. But looking at the bigger picture I completely understand why they have done so, and I agree that it will make FC much fairer for all rather than benefiting the few. I've had a good ride over the years with a strategy that involves a fair bit of flipping ("boo, hiss the villain") but now I'll have to find a way to maximise my returns under the new rules (although looking at the Q&A it appears we have no levers at all to influence the lending and selling).
What is frustrating for me is that in the new world we can only choose between "balanced" (A+ to E) and "conservative" (A+ to A). My strategy has been to invest in C to E loans only, as I am prepared to accept the risk and volatility that goes with those loans in exchange for the potentially higher returns. It would be good if in the new world FC could offer a "Risky" (I'm sure FC's marketing team can find a less emotive word) autobid option that only invests in C, D and E loans.
On the Autosell: does anyone know how the FC algorithm will choose which parts to sell on your behalf? Will it apply a FIFO, LIFO or random approach?
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seabbs
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Post by seabbs on Aug 22, 2017 8:15:28 GMT
Also gutted but agree that it will be fairer overall.
A risky approach would be a great option - or even just not including A and A+ loans. I assume they haven't implemented one as the riskier loans are in short supply. This could mean that those using a riskier option would prevent those using a balanced option from getting exposure to high risk loans - leaving FC with a headache.
The move into a black box approach is worrying if there isn't an increase in information provided. Not having a clue how the new autobuy/sell options will work is not ideal.
This is definitely a solution to their problems but it is shame they didn't go with a more complex solution that kept some of the spirit of the platform.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Aug 22, 2017 8:31:17 GMT
Yes "quality of the black box" is very important. There is much discussion on Zopa+ as to just how much you have to invest to get the estimated returns. With 4,000 loans I am getting the target 6%+, however many with smaller amounts are underachieving. See thread another bad month or similar.
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Post by kerimar on Aug 22, 2017 8:35:24 GMT
I've been with FC since the Glory days of the 15% Auctions. Every day was Christmas day. I've stuck with them through the changes despite dropping from an Annualised return of 50% down to about 10%. This is just 1 change too many for me. My biggest bugbear is the Auto Bid. The least amount it will invest in each loan is £625. I stick to a Max of £200 for ones I'm keeping, to spread the risk as much as possible. I dumped 3/5ths of my larger loans yesterday and am now buying up all the 0% New or newish loan parts up to a max of £200. Whatever is left by the 18th, I'll put in somewhere else like Lendy. I won't use Auto bid but withdraw the interest every month. I don't touch A+ so this way I will at least be getting a better return on what I leave invested than what they are now offering me. Need to look to see where else gets me 10%. Shame, it's been a fun ride
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