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Post by oldnick on Nov 8, 2014 17:12:02 GMT
Even if the effect of underwriters dumping on the secondary market could be anticipated by the information you're asking for, it's still possible for the market to be swamped if many smaller investors react to bad financial news in the same way. This type if investment must not be seen as an instant access account, and anyone who thinks it is should leave now before any potential rush happens. (Not saying it will, just don't rely on your money being returned before the end of the loan - and perhaps not exactly then either! )
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niceguy37
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Post by niceguy37 on Nov 8, 2014 17:13:42 GMT
So it may not be a conspiracy, just an unstable market and underwriters may be just as prone to the swings as everyone else - for example, when there was only 9k of Carmarthenshire WT left I waded in. My concern is the effect this instability/unpredictability might have on 'ordinary' investors. If they see £9k of a loan left and wade in thinking they'd be able to get out again reasonably promptly if they should need to, then they'd probably be less than pleased to find that next week there's £200k up for sale. Similarly, if someone looks at that loan now and sees nothing available they might feel comfortable increasing their target by a significant amount because they think they'll pick up only small bits and pieces over the coming weeks. But if £200k comes onto the Aftermarket all of a sudden, two things probably would happen -- 1) all of their available cash would be used to buy units in that loan; and 2) they'd find they couldn't sell those units as easily as they thought they could. And they'd probably be less than pleased about that. Perhaps AC shouldn't try to protect their investors against surprises like that, and the investors need to learn to fend for themselves and live with the consequences of their actions without grumbling. But a lot of this sort of surprise could be prevented if AC were to reinstate the old horseshoe charts so that we'd have some idea whether no units on the Aftermarket means the underwriters are completely out of a loan, or whether it means the underwriters have simply taken a break in liquidating their positions. And some statistics of sales by loan over a user-selected date range, please, would also provide a bit more of a clue to the lenders.
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Nov 8, 2014 17:57:04 GMT
Even if the effect of underwriters dumping on the secondary market could be anticipated by the information you're asking for, it's still possible for the market to be swamped if many smaller investors react to bad financial news in the same way. This type if investment must not be seen as an instant access account, and anyone who thinks it is should leave now before any potential rush happens. (Not saying it will, just don't rely on your money being returned before the end of the loan - and perhaps not exactly then either! ) I don't disagree, but it would encourage me to invest more if I had more sight of what is happening or what may happen. I would like to see the horseshoe-o-graph resurrected OR some easily understood API info about the loan, ideally both.
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Post by oldnick on Nov 8, 2014 17:59:39 GMT
I'll send you my piece of seaweed :-)
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Nov 8, 2014 18:04:39 GMT
I would like to see the horseshoe-o-graph resurrected OR some easily understood API info about the loan, ideally both. I can read a horseshoe chart easily enough. I wouldn't have a clue what to do with an API. I may be wrong, but I expect I'm reasonably typical in this regard. So while I wouldn't mind if AC provided the info via an API, having something available for the masses is necessary as well.
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Nov 8, 2014 20:58:11 GMT
I would like to see the horseshoe-o-graph resurrected OR some easily understood API info about the loan, ideally both. I can read a horseshoe chart easily enough. I wouldn't have a clue what to do with an API. I may be wrong, but I expect I'm reasonably typical in this regard. So while I wouldn't mind if AC provided the info via an API, having something available for the masses is necessary as well. , you are the Groucho Marx of P2P lending: I don't want to join any loan that will have me! I agree with oldnick, if you want instant access to your money, don't lend it to someone for three years. This is meant to be a medium term investment, I don't think that you should expect to be able to exit quickly. On another thread someone (I had a quick look but couldn't find the post) claimed that a successful P2P outfit must have a liquid after market. I don't think that is true for two reasons. Firstly the money I am putting into P2P is from maturing products (mainly bank fixed term savings) which had no early exit option (they did have FSCS and other advantages). Secondly Ratesetter is one of the most successful P2P outfits at that moment and its secondary market has exit fees that many would find unacceptable except in extremis. I think that we should see the aftermarket as a convenient way to diversify quickly. Having said all that Chris has stated that price discounting will be starting again soon and so for a 0.01% 'fee' it should be possible to jump many queues.
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Nov 9, 2014 0:01:39 GMT
I would like to see the horseshoe-o-graph resurrected OR some easily understood API info about the loan, ideally both. I can read a horseshoe chart easily enough. I wouldn't have a clue what to do with an API. I may be wrong, but I expect I'm reasonably typical in this regard. I think that you are typical in this regard. A client that can deal with most eventualities is large time consuming project. But writing a rough and ready useful program is much easier and if we share some code somewhere such as here we should get something useful. I'll certainly have a go once there is something useful available from the API. In a similar vein writing a script to consolidate the csv output from AC so that anyone with a large number of small trades can be combined. No point doing this unit after the site has bedded down. I don't seem to have the large number of transactions others do, but if that changes I might have a go at that too.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Nov 9, 2014 0:43:18 GMT
I can read a horseshoe chart easily enough. I wouldn't have a clue what to do with an API. I may be wrong, but I expect I'm reasonably typical in this regard. I think that you are typical in this regard. A client that can deal with most eventualities is large time consuming project. But writing a rough and ready useful program is much easier and if we share some code somewhere such as here we should get something useful. I'll certainly have a go once there is something useful available from the API. In a similar vein writing a script to consolidate the csv output from AC so that anyone with a large number of small trades can be combined. No point doing this unit after the site has bedded down. I don't seem to have the large number of transactions others do, but if that changes I might have a go at that too. Thanks for offering your expertise to help incompetents like me -- I need all the help I can get. Over at Zopa, someone created a spreadsheet that allowed lenders to analyse their loan books and produce all sorts of good information. It was very well used and lenders -- including me -- were/are very grateful to those who created and updated it.
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niceguy37
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Post by niceguy37 on Nov 9, 2014 16:22:52 GMT
Over at Zopa, someone created a spreadsheet that allowed lenders to analyse their loan books and produce all sorts of good information. It was very well used and lenders -- including me -- were/are very grateful to those who created and updated it. Why not give Chris a copy, highlighting the stats you find useful, and perhaps most of them can be produced by AC. In the end we need a dashboard that gives us the stats we need to manage our investments, without having to download and manipulate spreadsheets.
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Nov 9, 2014 17:31:29 GMT
Over at Zopa, someone created a spreadsheet that allowed lenders to analyse their loan books and produce all sorts of good information. It was very well used and lenders -- including me -- were/are very grateful to those who created and updated it. I've used that spreadsheet many times. Sadly I don't think anything I write for the API will be as generally useful. I suggested that that it might be possible to connect to the API with a spreadsheet but chris didn't seem to think that was likely. The problem with any API code is that it will need to be running on your PC, it will need to access the internet, and you will have to give it your AC password, so you really have to trust the person who has given it to you, or you have to understand some of the code your self.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Nov 9, 2014 18:44:08 GMT
...and you will have to give it your AC password... Umm... Isn't that a violation of the AC Ts&Cs?
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Nov 9, 2014 19:22:44 GMT
Good to have you here Tonyr. I think the point that small lenders are trying to make is not that there must definitely be a conspiracy among uw’s but simply that with things as they stand now it’s very difficult for us to make any judgements (& hence “informed” investment decisions).
You guys have done a sterling job of getting the loans brought on for us. But (if our reading of things isn’t wrong) you’re now in a bit of a fix because there simply aren’t enough small lenders (perhaps particularly new ones who starting from scratch can afford to enter any loan they consider ok just to get started) to buy those loans off you.
Us small lenders (who like everyone else is out first & foremost for their own interests) could ofcourse think “tough cookies on the uws I don’t care let them dig themselves out of this mess”. And we are to a certain extent (simply by being careful where we invest). In reality though we’re all bound together in one big loop, you guys not freeing up capital means more loans can’t get issued, we can’t diversify, the wheel grinds to a halt.
So not good for you = not good for us = not good for you
(ad infinitum)
I think it’s good we’re talking. I also think there are solutions round this. And I hope they’re on their way.
In the meantime it may be worthwhile you add your voice to those asking for more lenders to get this wheel a’turning again.
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Nov 9, 2014 19:34:41 GMT
I’m not sure I agree bigfoot. A florid AM is key to the success of a platform. More forward-looking operators like AC I think have understood this, which is one of the reasons why the soon to become world-famous shraplenator (amongst other things) has been adopted in the new upgrade – as many have already noticed it definitely helps AM liquidity. Other operators are also trying, in their own way, to get a more effective AM up & running. They do this because they know that the AM is perhaps the most important tool not only for diversification, but also investor exit, rebalancing, yield-chasing (all perhaps better bundled together into the concept of risk management)… & hence for getting lenders to invest on their platforms..
As a way of getting more business it’s a no-brainer.
For those who didn’t know, HM Treasury & the FCA are also actively seeking to promote effective AM’s with P2P operators. In their ongoing ISA-P2P consultation they are even looking at the possibility of setting a maximum period of time for which a loan must be traded if the investor so desires (or bought up by the platform/3rd party).
"The government could require that for a peer-to-peer loan to be ISA-qualifying, it must be facilitated by a firm operating a platform that provides a facility for the investor to seek a third party purchaser for the loan, throughout the term of the loan. In other words, it must provide access to a secondary market at all times."
"The government could address this by insisting that, for a peer-to-peer loan to be ISA eligible, there must be arrangements in place under which the loan could be sold at market value within a specified period (say, twenty days) at the investor’s request."
"One way firms operating platforms could achieve this would be for them to put in place a contractual commitment that either the firm itself or a third party would offer to purchase loans from investors at their market value if they remain unsold after a specified period. This would ensure that loans could be sold (and therefore transfers of the cash realised could take place) within a reasonable time period, even where either no secondary market existed, or where no willing buyer had been found via such a market
."
So, whilst nothing has (yet) been decided the direction of travel – both for business-driven & regulatory reasons - is very clear.
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Nov 9, 2014 19:47:12 GMT
For those who didn’t know, HM Treasury & the FCA are also actively seeking to promote effective AM’s with P2P operators. In their ongoing ISA-P2P consultation they are even looking at the possibility of setting a maximum period of time for which a loan must be traded if the investor so desires (or bought up by the platform/3rd party). I think that the point is more subtle than that. It is which ISA rules should be changed and which should be left the same when P2P becomes eligible for ISA. At the moment ISAs allow easy transfer, but that won't be as easy with P2P loans.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Nov 9, 2014 20:38:00 GMT
At the moment ISAs allow easy transfer... Do they? I have some cash ISAs invested in fixed-rate, fixed-term bonds. While some bonds may allow access before maturity upon payment of some sort of penalty, not all do. For those without an early-access option it's impossible to transfer that investment until maturity. Am I misunderstanding something?
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