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Post by valerieb on Dec 10, 2017 14:26:19 GMT
One of my sons is thinking of investing in lithium mining and wonders what the family thinks so any comments/views from forumites would be much appreciated - I bet there's a lithium expert out there lurking amongst you!
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2017 16:37:30 GMT
Lithium mining... does he understand the processes and the drivers of the metals cycles? Does he know which companies are any good at it and have access to it despite war/transport failure or political action? Are the prices of the investment taking into account all of the above or lower?
If your answers are yes then it might make sense.
Or not.
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elliotn
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Post by elliotn on Dec 11, 2017 2:35:41 GMT
Very superficially, Australia is looking to keep its economy humming by replacing some base metal mining with lithium mining (and displace Congo as world’s number one) by following the Chinese economy from infrastructure/apartment building higher up the economic chain into electric cars which their car companies plan to move into aggressively with tacit government support.
A logical bet particularly into the medium term, say, for a pension investment but still a bet if hybrid technology were to prolong the lifecycle of the good, old combustion engine (and all the associated legacy infrastructure/economy ie petrol stations, component supply chains, sunk costs ie r&d/factories, government petroleum taxes etc).
Another potentially longer horizon, but not unreasonable bet, is Elon Musk’s vision of massive battery farms as a store for renewables also replacing fossil fuel dependency in the energy market (his gigafactory already supplies Tesla motors) - he developed one for an Australian state after a big power cut.
Of course despite a bright future it could always be usurped by a new superconductor along the way (graphene?) that your son may need to flip into - this is where our Coll cashback skills could teach the young’uns a thing or two 😉 .
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Dec 11, 2017 9:19:32 GMT
I think that Lithium is likely be a significant material for a long while. My guess is that the price of Lithium (Li) Ion cells will continue to fall and so they will be used in applications not previously such as car batteries. And in a few years all cars will be at least mild hybrids. Many of the new technologies which seem to be lighter or smaller than Li Ion still use lithium, such as Lithium Sulphur and Lithium Air. Talk of graphene (or more excitingly, but less buzzwordly silicon), normally means replacing a graphite anode with graphene (or Silicon); the Lithium part is still there, expect more Lithium is needed. I don't know much about the mining industry. I do think that there is hope for mining in Nevada or Arizona and other reasonably stable parts of the world. My guess is that this will be the focus of a lot of scams. I was at the Master investor show earlier this year and there were quite a few companies looking to raise money as lithium miners. I wasn't convinced by at least two of them. (Too many stands had people with not enough knowledge about their own products or markets especially for a show with Master investor in the title.) Finally I don't know what price is reasonable. I don't think your son is early to this idea, there will have already been much investment. This article is over a year old but it hints at the difficulty in working out what will happen to the price.
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stub8535
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personal opinions only. Not qualified to advise on investment products.
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Post by stub8535 on Dec 11, 2017 15:46:14 GMT
I think that Lithium is likely be a significant material for a long while. My guess is that the price of Lithium (Li) Ion cells will continue to fall and so they will be used in applications not previously such as car batteries. And in a few years all cars will be at least mild hybrids. Many of the new technologies which seem to be lighter or smaller than Li Ion still use lithium, such as Lithium Sulphur and Lithium Air. Talk of graphene (or more excitingly, but less buzzwordly silicon), normally means replacing a graphite anode with graphene (or Silicon); the Lithium part is still there, expect more Lithium is needed. I don't know much about the mining industry. I do think that there is hope for mining in Nevada or Arizona and other reasonably stable parts of the world. My guess is that this will be the focus of a lot of scams. I was at the Master investor show earlier this year and there were quite a few companies looking to raise money as lithium miners. I wasn't convinced by at least two of them. (Too many stands had people with not enough knowledge about their own products or markets especially for a show with Master investor in the title.) Finally I don't know what price is reasonable. I don't think your son is early to this idea, there will have already been much investment. This article is over a year old but it hints at the difficulty in working out what will happen to the price. One only need take a look at torotrak to see what happens when trends are expected but not fulfilled in the longer term. Fortunately, loans in p2p land are short term enough to enable investments to be repaid before the technology becomes obsolete. One may also have a better chance that high concentrations of lithium salts in solution continue over the loans life.
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jo
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Post by jo on Dec 12, 2017 9:05:44 GMT
Is the type of mine he's thinking of investing in exploratory or producing? Probability suggests it's generally better to be a settler than a pioneer, so I'd favour the latter. Whilst the big payoffs occur by investing in the former, as bigfoot12 suggests, there are probably a lot of 'holes in the ground, owned by liars' out there.
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Post by davee39 on Dec 12, 2017 9:34:43 GMT
How about polyhalite, which is a little closer to home (near Whitby so about 20 miles south). A major fertilizer deposit under the north sea, and more importantly urgently needed jobs and exports. I have not invested, but have followed the project through planning battles and concept changes. There is a $3 billion capital requirement overall, with a substantial predicted long term return. www.siriusminerals.com
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kaya
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Post by kaya on Dec 12, 2017 11:16:13 GMT
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seeingred
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Post by seeingred on Dec 12, 2017 16:00:32 GMT
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Post by valerieb on Dec 13, 2017 19:34:04 GMT
Totally disgusting exploitation.
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Post by valerieb on Dec 13, 2017 19:37:17 GMT
Thank you everyone for your detailed responses - much appreciated. Recycling old batteries is very appealing.
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