invester
P2P Blogger
Posts: 612 
Likes: 618
|
Post by invester on Mar 1, 2018 12:44:30 GMT
After the Col events, I've been contemplating a move back here - has anyone done the same?
Given that the investment goes into the black box I don't have have the annoyance of reading updates that never come, and whilst I wasn't a massive fan of them before the chances of them disappearing into the night seem slimmer.
I guess what I'm asking is, for people that have bought 300+ loans, are the returns around the area where it says it'll be? And that loans can't be picked at all now (only the band?)
I've invested a few k in Zopa+ and that is not going well, but there doesn't seem to be the same amount of complaints on the FC forum.
|
|
rogerthat
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,048
Likes: 1,994
|
Post by rogerthat on Mar 1, 2018 13:15:25 GMT
After the Col events, I've been contemplating a move back here - has anyone done the same?Given that the investment goes into the black box I don't have have the annoyance of reading updates that never come, and whilst I wasn't a massive fan of them before the chances of them disappearing into the night seem slimmer. I guess what I'm asking is, for people that have bought 300+ loans, are the returns around the area where it says it'll be? And that loans can't be picked at all now (only the band?) I've invested a few k in Zopa+ and that is not going well, but there doesn't seem to be the same amount of complaints on the FC forum. (my bold) I headed in the opposite direction and signed up to Assetz Capital and their self select MLIA account which is easy to operate and when I got there I found that they have a really big loan book so there's plenty to choose from so I could diversify. Assetz also have 'Black Box' accounts but I prefer to retain my right to choose and that's something that FC has taken away.
Rates offered 5% and up to circa 12% with the average MLIA loan rates across the book sitting around 7.5%. (my bold) Just another opinion amongst many I suppose but those words on their own encapsulate the very essence of why I left them..aside from the fact that a hundred or so loans remain on life support and in particular their handling of a London hotel and the fallout surrounding that
|
|
|
|
Post by mrclondon on Mar 1, 2018 13:48:56 GMT
I lent extensively from launch to the end of 2013 but nothing since then until I received my invite to open an IFISA 2 weeks ago, which I opened immediately. I'm feeding cash in £2000 at a time to get the largest possible loan distribution, currently up to £6000 and was going to send the next £2000 today but I've invested all surplus cash over the last 24 hours in the post COL sell off on Lendy and MT of some of the best p2p loans there are.
I've multiple motivations for opening the FC IFISA. Partly my last chunks in Wellesley & Co mature in a few weeks and this is a suitable invest and forget replacement at the 6-7% expected long term yield from p2p, and maintains a level of platform diversification. Partly I don't want to increase S&S holdings at present but need to use my ISA allowance (in readiness to transfer to H&L in a few years to receive (indirectly) the 25% tax free cash from my S&S invested SIPP). I'm wary of the cash drag issue inside a IFISA so using a platform with essentially zero cash drag once initially invested is important to me.
I have been VERY impressed with the recovery rates from my FC 2010-13 loans, yes it takes time but the eventual capital write offs will be relatively small.
To be clear it is the end of property loans, the end of the loan auctions, the end of the dumping of perceived weak loans on the SM, the end of the SM period, the end of the mass poaching of D&E loans by bots etc etc that has convinced me to restart with FC. Apart from a prolonged severe recession, I believe FC should be able to deliver the anticipated c. 7% on a well diversified loan portfolio, averaged over the next few years.
|
|
|
|
Post by samford71 on Mar 1, 2018 14:06:32 GMT
I went back into FC during 4Q17 and continue to build up a small position (capped at 1% of net worth). It's a completely different proposition to my approach to FC during 2015 to early 2017. My exposure then was higher (peaked at 2%) but the strategy was completely different. During that period it was about rotating capital to extract cashback (and perhaps modest capital gains) using an algorithmic strategy. That approach generated peak returns close to 20% but was never going to be sustainable.
I'm more than happy now to see FC as a "fire and forget" P2P platform and I've recalibrated my return expectations to match that. I'm already diversfied into over 800 SME loans. I'm not exposed to commercial property which is the part of P2P I am most concerned with over the next 12-24 months. Given their recovery rates for unsecured loans are relatively strong (and not that far off the recovery rates for some secured lending platforms), I think it's perfectly viable for FC to deliver the 5-8% type returns I'm looking for at this point in the cycle. It will probably generate losses during a recession but so will most P2P portfolios.
|
|
markr
Member of DD Central
Posts: 766
Likes: 426
|
Post by markr on Mar 1, 2018 14:32:50 GMT
Well, I never left which means I can't really comment on returns as my account is still heavily influenced by pre-September earnings. I'll be opening a new IFISA account in April, though, so I will have a new account to compare.
The box isn't black, it's nearly as transparent as it was before, but no longer has the rubber gloves in the side so you can't reach in and tinker with the contents. You can no longer see what is on the primary or secondary markets, but you can see everything about the loans you hold, including the updates that never come, if you choose. You can see the credit score and accounts, and even the Q&A page (always empty as no one can ask questions!) although of course you can't use this information to guide your investment choices. Or, you can also choose not to log in at all, and just let FC get on with it.
|
|
cb25
Posts: 3,524
Likes: 2,667
|
Post by cb25 on Mar 1, 2018 14:34:55 GMT
I've had an FC account since mid 2011, but stopped re-investment when the new style FC came in last year as I wasn't happy with lending 0.5% of my portfolio per loan. I'd never done that when manually placing bids. Instead, I started a new style FC account with new money 4Q17. The new style FC account is doing OK, 500+ loans, £0 bad debt so far !, though that's bound to change. The old style FC account (which I'm running down) has been suffering a spate of bad debts recently.
Also have an AC account. Even after the recent change(s) to their algorithms behind the packaged accounts (GBBA etc), I'm not sure they've got it right. I see GBBA2 as a nice idea at 6.25% plus provision fund, but I'm waiting for the algorithm to be finalized. Occurs to me that AC's loan size, some multi-million £, may be too big for their lender base. Regarding AC's manual account, very much like old style FC except i) don't tend to go so much info on borrower's reasons for the loan, ii) nowhere near the volume of loans as even old style FC, making serious diversification harder imo.
Possibly going to go with FC for my 2018/19 IFISA. Current year IFISA was with Z+, bit of a mistake in retrospect as their results aren't great.
Also have money in RS, but their rates seem depressed recently, quite possibly due to influx of IFISA money.
|
|
|
|
Post by davee39 on Mar 1, 2018 14:40:30 GMT
Going back to FC (as a result of Col) would be like juggling Frying Pans and Hot Coals.
|
|
|
|
Post by valerieb on Mar 1, 2018 14:41:33 GMT
....I have been VERY impressed with the recovery rates from my FC 2010-13 loans, yes it takes time but the eventual capital write offs will be relatively small....... I too have been VERY impressed with the recovery rates on older FC loans. Having sold most of my loans and withdrawn cash last summer to fund my 'Bank of Mum and Dad' account, I was left with about a dozen of what I regarded as my better loans to which I added another handful as punters sold out before the great Sept 18th FC re-incarnation. However, 37 of my 55 loans (down from 500+) reside in the shadow lands of bad debt/default/endlessly processing/slightly overdue/experiencing short term cash flow problems/just need a short payment holiday/the property will be finished, paperwork completed, sold any day now/ oh, did I forget to set up the direct debit?......and so on. Even so, interest and small recovery payments roll in most days and I'm quite happy with my 7.2% return, not the 10+% of those heady early days but perfectly acceptable. I'm not investing new money as I prefer to have more control and as I no longer have enough cash invested for FC to diversify my account sufficiently, I've started withdrawing repayments.
|
|
jo
Member of DD Central
Posts: 727
Likes: 492
|
Post by jo on Mar 1, 2018 15:39:57 GMT
After the Col events, I've been contemplating a move back here - has anyone done the same? Given that the investment goes into the black box I don't have have the annoyance of reading updates that never come, and whilst I wasn't a massive fan of them before the chances of them disappearing into the night seem slimmer. I guess what I'm asking is, for people that have bought 300+ loans, are the returns around the area where it says it'll be? And that loans can't be picked at all now (only the band?) I've invested a few k in Zopa+ and that is not going well, but there doesn't seem to be the same amount of complaints on the FC forum. Must admit, the thought did cross my mind. Using the analogy of 'pioneers & settlers', I'd definitely classify them as settlers. Of course that means returns will be accordingly lower - but... well, you know 
|
|
markr
Member of DD Central
Posts: 766
Likes: 426
|
Post by markr on Mar 1, 2018 15:58:37 GMT
I wasn't happy with lending 0.5% of my portfolio per loan. I can understand that, and pre-September I was a super-diversifier too (with over 2000 loans). But, if you look at FC's statistics, it actually doesn't make much difference. The mean rate and 90% confidence interval is pretty flat after about 300 loans, so although the day-to-day returns will be lumpier (steady upward periods with sudden, large, drops), the trend will be similar to a highly diversified account.
|
|
p2pmark
Member of DD Central
Posts: 217
Likes: 186
|
Post by p2pmark on Mar 1, 2018 16:03:19 GMT
I wasn't happy with lending 0.5% of my portfolio per loan. I can understand that, and pre-September I was a super-diversifier too (with over 2000 loans). But, if you look at FC's statistics, it actually doesn't make much difference. The mean rate and 90% confidence interval is pretty flat after about 300 loans, so although the day-to-day returns will be lumpier (steady upward periods with sudden, large, drops), the trend will be similar to a highly diversified account. How do you get more than 200 loans?
|
|
cb25
Posts: 3,524
Likes: 2,667
|
Post by cb25 on Mar 1, 2018 16:08:24 GMT
I can understand that, and pre-September I was a super-diversifier too (with over 2000 loans). But, if you look at FC's statistics, it actually doesn't make much difference. The mean rate and 90% confidence interval is pretty flat after about 300 loans, so although the day-to-day returns will be lumpier (steady upward periods with sudden, large, drops), the trend will be similar to a highly diversified account. How do you get more than 200 loans? Add money in stages. First lump sum generates 200 loans. Next lump sum generates more. My new style FC account has 542 loans
|
|
markr
Member of DD Central
Posts: 766
Likes: 426
|
Post by markr on Mar 1, 2018 16:31:35 GMT
To start a new account, yes, dribble in over time to improve your initial diversification. However, even with a lump sum initial deposit, amortisation and random smaller SM purchases will mean an account will settle down with something like 400 loans.
FC's loan book does have a tendency towards early failures, so your losses are likely to come in ~0.5% lumps, which can be unsettling. But conversely, those that survive infant mortality will mostly go on to perform well and cover future losses. FC investment is definitely for the long term.
|
|
ceejay
Posts: 971
Likes: 1,149
|
Post by ceejay on Mar 1, 2018 16:39:13 GMT
As the starter of the thread "I'm outta here" I am not entirely sure what I'm doing in this thread, but here goes...
I'm not currently thinking about coming back - I am now just sitting on a rump of lates and defaults. But, if I were, I'm pretty sure that my first thought would be to invest via FCIF as that gives a more-or-less guaranteed exit route, in full, if required. Which seems a much better process than the one I am currently engaged in, which is likely to dribble on for years.
What do others think of this issue? It seems odd to me to put money in without having a clear plan to get it back at some point. How important is it to be able to exit cleanly at some point?
|
|
|
|
Post by GSV3MIaC on Mar 1, 2018 16:48:43 GMT
It sort of depends on how old you are &/or how much you hate your executors, but yeah a clean exit from any S&S (including FCIF) is much easier to achieve that a clean exit from any P2P platform which may have had some defaults. You can, of course, just ignore the left-over pennies and walk away (if you are dead even HMRC can't bother you about tax due on dribbles of interest). I shan't be headed back to FC .. too many broken promises over the years (OK, so they may have had reasons, but that doesn't impress me any).
Oh 'recommend' is not a good word btw .. shades of 'advice', which is probably not legal unless you are appropriately registered and insured.
|
|
