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Post by lendinglawyer on Oct 24, 2018 15:21:35 GMT
I would have liked to have seen this loan structured as a unitrache pari passu with TMF (rather than a 1L/2L structure). I'd take that at a lower rate over a "15% new borrower" bonanza (although this loan is currently not playing out that way, got slow fill + back-end underwriters written all over it...) any day.
And if it is to be 1L/2L I would like to have the terms (especially interest rate) of TMF's loan disclosed (apologies if I missed it), as that is very relevant. If the interest on that loan is significant (I expect it is) that could over time have a material impact on the LTV and erode the "cushion".
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dh1
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Post by dh1 on Oct 24, 2018 16:47:40 GMT
I haven't found the TMF loan % (or perhaps better yet, monthly? repayments) either, yet. It's relevant to cash flow as well as LTV potentially. See also p18 of the borrowing proposal.
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Post by Proptechfish on Oct 24, 2018 17:31:48 GMT
Sounds too much like 'last chance salon' to me, plus a bad harvest next year could kill off the business. I'll pass.
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markyg61
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Post by markyg61 on Oct 24, 2018 17:44:03 GMT
Sounds too much like 'last chance salon' to me, plus a bad harvest next year could kill off the business. I'll pass. Did you read the blurb ...they grow throughout the year in poly tunnels.
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trevor
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Post by trevor on Oct 24, 2018 18:36:42 GMT
70% and 2nd charge. Not for me.
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TitoPuente
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Post by TitoPuente on Oct 24, 2018 20:08:02 GMT
Another no way José.
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dh1
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Post by dh1 on Oct 24, 2018 21:34:15 GMT
Another point is that you can get (sometimes much) higher returns by buying some of the less risky loans on the SM at the moment. Devil you know vs devil you don't....
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blender
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Post by blender on Oct 24, 2018 22:17:12 GMT
Another point is that you can get (sometimes much) higher returns by buying some of the less risky loans on the SM at the moment. Devil you know vs devil you don't.... Please identify the less risky ones.
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KoR_Wraith
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Post by KoR_Wraith on Oct 25, 2018 6:34:00 GMT
Agriculture is acutely exposed to Brexit, makes it a no-go for me.
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dh1
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Post by dh1 on Oct 25, 2018 8:25:13 GMT
Another point is that you can get (sometimes much) higher returns by buying some of the less risky loans on the SM at the moment. Devil you know vs devil you don't.... Please identify the less risky ones. Good point, blender! What I should have said "... some of the more familiar loans ..." which would have linked much better with the "Devil" bit at the end.
Of course, all p2p loans are risky or they wouldn't be p2p loans. Some, though, aren't 70% LTV; aren't second (or otherwise subordinated) charges; (apparently) have at least some cash flows in play; and have a track record of paying interest/capital when due...
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blender
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Post by blender on Oct 25, 2018 8:52:07 GMT
I'm just after as much free advice as I can get dh1 ! Not all 70%s are equal. 70% of the current market valuation of a piece of agricultural land is real. 70% of the retail value of car stocks (before cost of sales) is unconvincing for me. 70% of the anticipated future value of a business and its assets based on development/refurbishment and three years projected trading growth starts to look like an unsecured loan to me. The second charge is not so good, but that is why it is 15% plus Ablrate's cut.
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invester
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Post by invester on Oct 25, 2018 10:12:58 GMT
I suppose that 70% of a fortified castle was real as well....if demand isn't there what happens to a valuation?
A forced sale turns some of these things into falling knives. And this is a second charge.
Sure you can grow crops inside but stuff like disease can still affect things. Unlikely but not impossible.
I think this loan looks fine as long as the show stays on the road....with Brexit offering so many unknowns I don't think the upside is great.
You could look at agricultural stocks whose values have been depressed but underlying business is in better shape and not exposed as this due to scales....equivalent risks but better upside.
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nyneil
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Post by nyneil on Oct 25, 2018 10:20:19 GMT
I'm afraid that if this goes 'pear shaped' we will be in the manure! Unfortunately, to me, it looks more like gambling than investing. Having said that, i wish them well and hope they manage to recover from what looks to be a very sticky patch.
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Post by Proptechfish on Oct 25, 2018 16:21:39 GMT
Sounds too much like 'last chance salon' to me, plus a bad harvest next year could kill off the business. I'll pass. Did you read the blurb ...they grow throughout the year in poly tunnels. I did, and you can still have a 'bad' harvest in a polytunnel. It just a little too vulnerable to me
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blender
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Post by blender on Oct 25, 2018 16:38:01 GMT
Did you read the blurb ...they grow throughout the year in poly tunnels. I did, and you can still have a 'bad' harvest in a polytunnel. It just a little too vulnerable to me Well, yes. Is that just this type of product or agriculture generally? One bad harvest does not greatly affect the value of the land. You might also worry about the following scenario: Water into blood (דָם): Ex. 7:14–24 Frogs (צְּפַרְדֵּעַ): Ex. 7:25–8:15 Lice (כִּנִּים): Ex. 8:16-19 Mixture of wild animals (עָרוֹב): Ex. 8:20-32 Diseased livestock (דֶּבֶר): Ex. 9:1–7 Boils (שְׁחִין): Ex. 9:8–12 Thunderstorm of hail and fire (בָּרָד): Ex. 9:13–35 Locusts (אַרְבֶּה): Ex. 10:1–20 Darkness for three days (חוֹשֶך): Ex. 10:21–29 Death of firstborn (מַכַּת בְּכוֹרוֹת): Ex. 11:1–12:36
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