aju
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,484
Likes: 917
|
Post by aju on Dec 6, 2018 16:45:04 GMT
This is exactly the situation where I would jump in: So would you go for top or bottom of that screens range or are you saying that when it hit the 5-5.5 in that part of the 3 year range is the time to set it to one of those points. Does the amount to be lent out have a bearing i.e >1M is not going to be hit or is it less than that say. I know this stuff is very hit and miss and luck comes into it a bit I guess. Also I've watched the live rates on the relevant product and struggled to relate it to those screens. (I guess I need to set my reload screen extension to trigger at the same times perhaps.)
|
|
|
Post by befuddled on Dec 6, 2018 16:50:34 GMT
asme approach as Zopa in old days, but be aware that the lending may go to a single borrower so no lending at all (subject to the frequent apparent market hicoughs) until all money at the lower rate is gone. Each weekday there is the MR money to lend and most new money attarcted at that or below rate. Unmless rates are very good probably worth waiting until that clears at the risk of not lending. How much it goes above and how often depends on the market. Don't play the rolling (due to aut relending now). Monthly is erratic as a significant amount of the lending here is large property loans that often suck in £1m or so. As a result frequent peaks way above market. Worth checking as sometimes it takes a few hours before these are satisfied and so you can pitch in at the higher rate with good expectation of lending (note that some people will be attracted at the higher lend it now rate, so you need to set these offers with somewhat less than the amount offerred to borrowers offering ahead of you). This is a bit complicated now as RS have become more cunning if more than one large offer comes in and will only put one on the market at a time, so may be worth a put where lending above that shown is required. 5 year has a larger amount daily but is more even. In any day it rarely rises that much above the previous day's high. However worth holding out for longer as average cash drag on longer loans less.
All that said, as stated elsewhere this is a slow time of year, so might be worth accepting modest rates now and only taking punts in Late January. Generally I have an array of offers to match over expected / hoped for rates of the following few weeks as it is an inexact science.
Re amount per loan, I prefer not to have too much in any one loan as early repayments are common and often lead to a glut on the market (especially the larger 1 year loans). So I think it is worth spreading as widely as possible without compromising unduly on current rates. This is consistent with small punts to catch market fluctuations.
Re LW, have a small amount in, but please note that the required disclaimer about the past not being a guide to the future is more relevant with PFs. RS admit that the PF will be insufficient to cover a moderate recession. I expect that at a minimum within the next 3 years I will lose at least 6 months interest with a significant chance of losing several % of my invested capital. RS was not here fopr the last recession and has become less conservative on PF funding. Current default estimates look optimistic to me and probably dependent on a thriving market for under performing loans. LW seem to be even more optimistic on default recoveries hence my caution. Essentially (at risk of sounding like a bad record), PF P2Ps are very like catastrophy bonds that got Aberdeen and other companies in trouble before. THey exasperate the essential feature of non-FSCS bond investment (picking up pennies infront of a steam roller). gebnerallyu will receive the promised amount, but in a downturn expect significant losses. There is an assumption that PF can always be topped up from future contributions (something happening on both LW & RS I believe even now), if losses crystallise expect lending to cease suddenly and the existing PF to have to cover all current loans!
Best of luck.
PM Thanks for that, I spent some time looking at the 3 options. Rolling I didn't like at all and as a result when Mrs Aju got her £50 bonus we removed it immediately and put it in her 5y option. To be honest 5 year was the only thing we are looking at as we have enough in lower value markets in Zopa at the moment. All my initial £1000 got lent out at once as I used debit card and made a schoolboy on it lending out immediately, rather fortunately still at 5.9%. With Mrs Aju we did a bank transfer and it was more measured and we split it up a little for the reasons you point out when borrowers check out early.A few people have mentioned LW but I'm a long time Zoparite and would rather work with one new one at a time. That said I'm sure I'm going to get bored with RS being more hands off than Zopa in many ways. (I mean in terms of data that one can use to better understand their lending positions. Of course Zopa does not offer the best tools one has to create them oneself.) ---------
The RS website powerfully steers you to default into MR, but if you look carefully before you click you are not forced to, regardless of how you get money into RS.....
(There is a small inconspicuous "expert" box you have to click to avoid getting "auto churned" into MR)
|
|
aju
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,484
Likes: 917
|
Post by aju on Dec 6, 2018 16:57:32 GMT
Okay do you guys by chance look at the statistics Section 3 pages - I noticed that there are some csv's of the market rates, I think. So i pulled both of them. Sadly both seem to be the same contents on quick glance. In section 4, rate trends, Download rate Data as follows. Download rate data ›Rate feed Rates Atom feed (last 10 days of rates) ›Data dump CSV CSV approx. 30kb Thing is they are identical CSVs named datadump.csv. I'm ok with the contents although the size suggests its not the datadump.csv as on my download it is a csv that contains 504kb of all 4 products Rolling, 1y, 3y and 5y right back to 2010. With the data I have I could probably do some analysis and see what the rates patterns are as well on a month/Year/DayOfWeek etc. I'm guessing this lines up with MR and therefore the day mentioned is the MR day, so I may need to assume that its a day behind ie file says mon but its actually sun data. The Rate feed says £Rates Atom Feed (Last 10 days rates). Does anyone know what the terms "Rates Atom" means?
|
|
aju
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,484
Likes: 917
|
Post by aju on Dec 6, 2018 17:03:02 GMT
Thanks for that, I spent some time looking at the 3 options. Rolling I didn't like at all and as a result when Mrs Aju got her £50 bonus we removed it immediately and put it in her 5y option. To be honest 5 year was the only thing we are looking at as we have enough in lower value markets in Zopa at the moment. All my initial £1000 got lent out at once as I used debit card and made a schoolboy on it lending out immediately, rather fortunately still at 5.9%. With Mrs Aju we did a bank transfer and it was more measured and we split it up a little for the reasons you point out when borrowers check out early.A few people have mentioned LW but I'm a long time Zoparite and would rather work with one new one at a time. That said I'm sure I'm going to get bored with RS being more hands off than Zopa in many ways. (I mean in terms of data that one can use to better understand their lending positions. Of course Zopa does not offer the best tools one has to create them oneself.) ---------
The RS website powerfully steers you to default into MR, but if you look carefully before you click you are not forced to, regardless of how you get money into RS.....
(There is a small inconspicuous "expert" box you have to click to avoid getting "auto churned" into MR)Thanks, That's really what I meant about the schoolboy error, I had later seen someones comment elsewhere about that but it was after I had made the error sadly. As I said though I got lucky anyway with 5.9% on the day, in my perspective that is of course. I've actually set my auto returns to higher acceptable values at the moment rather than return to my holding, ever the wishful thinker that I am.
|
|
|
Post by erniec on Dec 6, 2018 18:37:46 GMT
This is exactly the situation where I would jump in: So would you go for top or bottom of that screens range or are you saying that when it hit the 5-5.5 in that part of the 3 year range is the time to set it to one of those points. Does the amount to be lent out have a bearing i.e >1M is not going to be hit or is it less than that say. I know this stuff is very hit and miss and luck comes into it a bit I guess. Also I've watched the live rates on the relevant product and struggled to relate it to those screens. (I guess I need to set my reload screen extension to trigger at the same times perhaps.) You can get a better look by View Full Market. I would initially put money in at 5.4% and watch. You may see others reducing what they will take from above you and you may have to move down yourself. I would be trying to get 5.4% but happy to take down to 5.2% to secure. I hope that makes sense.
|
|
aju
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,484
Likes: 917
|
Post by aju on Dec 6, 2018 19:21:02 GMT
So would you go for top or bottom of that screens range or are you saying that when it hit the 5-5.5 in that part of the 3 year range is the time to set it to one of those points. Does the amount to be lent out have a bearing i.e >1M is not going to be hit or is it less than that say. I know this stuff is very hit and miss and luck comes into it a bit I guess. Also I've watched the live rates on the relevant product and struggled to relate it to those screens. (I guess I need to set my reload screen extension to trigger at the same times perhaps.) You can get a better look by View Full Market. I would initially put money in at 5.4% and watch. You may see others reducing what they will take from above you and you may have to move down yourself. I would be trying to get 5.4% but happy to take down to 5.2% to secure. I hope that makes sense. Yes it makes sense now, sounds a good approach thanks
|
|
|
Post by propman on Dec 7, 2018 10:51:07 GMT
Okay do you guys by chance look at the statistics pages - I noticed that there are some csv's of the market rates, I think. So i pulled both of them. Sadly both seem to be the same contents on quick glance. In section 4, rate trends, Download rate Data as follows. Download rate data › Rate feed Rates Atom feed (last 10 days of rates) › Data dump CSV CSV approx. 30kb Thing is they are identical CSVs named datadump.csv. I'm ok with the contents although the size suggests its not the datadump.csv as on my download it is a csv that contains 504kb of all 4 products Rolling, 1y, 3y and 5y right back to 2010. With the data I have I could probably do some analysis and see what the rates patterns are as well on a month/Year/DayOfWeek etc. I'm guessing this lines up with MR and therefore the day mentioned is the MR day, so I may need to assume that its a day behind ie file says mon but its actually sun data. The Rate feed says £Rates Atom Feed (Last 10 days rates). Does anyone know what the terms "Rates Atom" means? Can't see where you are starting for this screen. If you go into Market data then you can get daily MR data for each market. However the methodology changed to reduce MR some time ago and so this does not accurately show peaks. A one day peak will often not increase the MR much, it is only a second high lending day in a row (or happening at the weekend where there is no MR Money coming in) that creates the peaks. As a result the data overstates the W/E benefit. Some of these days have had very light lending, my best lending days are typically Thursday/Friday with the latter often disappointing as little lending after office hours.
re the situation above. Unless you have the time to watch rates, i would lend at 5.3% if acceptable as the total funds available is enough to use all the 5.3% funds but not 5.4%. 1 year lending sometimes ceases by 5PM so 5.4% while possible will require another loan and there is often significant funds put on when spikes occur.
There is also the full market loanbook if you have time on your hands...
- PM
|
|
|
Post by erniec on Dec 7, 2018 11:00:16 GMT
The trouble with setting the rate you want to lend at to 5.3% is that you aren’t guaranteed to get that rate due to watchers from above moving down to 5.2% and using all the borrower funds before it reaches you.
|
|
aju
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,484
Likes: 917
|
Post by aju on Dec 7, 2018 11:23:43 GMT
Okay do you guys by chance look at the statistics Section 3 pages - I noticed that there are some csv's of the market rates, I think. So i pulled both of them. Sadly both seem to be the same contents on quick glance. In section 4, rate trends, Download rate Data as follows. Download rate data ›Rate feed Rates Atom feed (last 10 days of rates) ›Data dump CSV CSV approx. 30kb Thing is they are identical CSVs named datadump.csv. I'm ok with the contents although the size suggests its not the datadump.csv as on my download it is a csv that contains 504kb of all 4 products Rolling, 1y, 3y and 5y right back to 2010. With the data I have I could probably do some analysis and see what the rates patterns are as well on a month/Year/DayOfWeek etc. I'm guessing this lines up with MR and therefore the day mentioned is the MR day, so I may need to assume that its a day behind ie file says mon but its actually sun data. The Rate feed says £Rates Atom Feed (Last 10 days rates). Does anyone know what the terms "Rates Atom" means? Can't see where you are starting for this screen. If you go into Market data then you can get daily MR data for each market. However the methodology changed to reduce MR some time ago and so this does not accurately show peaks. A one day peak will often not increase the MR much, it is only a second high lending day in a row (or happening at the weekend where there is no MR Money coming in) that creates the peaks. As a result the data overstates the W/E benefit. Some of these days have had very light lending, my best lending days are typically Thursday/Friday with the latter often disappointing as little lending after office hours.
re the situation above. Unless you have the time to watch rates, i would lend at 5.3% if acceptable as the total funds available is enough to use all the 5.3% funds but not 5.4%. 1 year lending sometimes ceases by 5PM so 5.4% while possible will require another loan and there is often significant funds put on when spikes occur.
There is also the full market loanbook if you have time on your hands...
- PM
Thanks and sorry for the bad screen layout I thought I had it sorted ... Its called the data hub and it can be found here (I added a link into the original message above). Its in the section 3 "Rate trends since 2010" I think the day in the datadump.csv is actually the day rate but its not really clear I say this as i pulled it yesterday and had yesterdays date in it. It too probably will not show peaks as its a composite of a day more like the MR but its a start. I agree though that its probably not going to give me useful day/month trends etc more the MR type levels. The actual graph on screen is quite helpful showing peaks and troughs etc. Sad git that I am I've got the Full Market View and the "5yr Income" screens in the left hand of my screen with a refresh extension updating them every min. I can see changes in corner of my eye but to be honest I'm not tracking it just watching for uplifts in rates - so already today its jumped up from 5.3 to 5.5/5.6 in last 2 hours or so. Still not convinced though and my setting are trying to see if the peak hits 6.1 and above. Not so far but it really is early days. On the full loanbook, I've seen mentions of it in a few places on Ratesetter but as yet not stumbled onto it. I've emailed them to see what they say about where i might find it if it exists. I checked out P2PFA, knowing they were not there since quite a few months ago to no avail either. Time on my hands, Mrs Aju hasn't wanted to go shopping for over two days now not sure if she's ill .... still need to sort Insurance for car and I'm behind a bit with my monthlies on Zopa accounts but yeah I'm sure I can find time to create yet another spreadsheet.
|
|
macq
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,924
Likes: 1,192
|
Post by macq on Dec 7, 2018 15:06:26 GMT
pretty sure 5 year hit 6 or 6.1 last night so you must be getting close
|
|
aju
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,484
Likes: 917
|
Post by aju on Dec 7, 2018 15:24:01 GMT
I have a £10 punts starting at 6.1 and its still punting so I guess it was not high enough up the 5y queue or there was too much dosh in front of me.
Did you see it on screen or do you have a tool that is monitoring it?.
|
|
macq
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,924
Likes: 1,192
|
Post by macq on Dec 7, 2018 15:32:42 GMT
I have a £10 punts starting at 6.1 and its still punting so I guess it was not high enough up the 5y queue or there was too much dosh in front of me. Did you see it on screen or do you have a tool that is monitoring it?. Tools!! monitoring!! blimey i have enough problems on a computer.But no just happened to see it as the last lent price but did not see for how much.I'v mainly got 1 year set at 5.2 and left it set for about 6 weeks & been pretty regular so far
|
|
|
Post by gravitykillz on Dec 9, 2018 7:25:14 GMT
I like ratesetter but rates are a but low for my likeing at the moment. I am withdrawing and investing with lending works at 6.5% for 5 years. Also got a bonus from them for referring! Only issue with lw is it takes a week to get invested! Hopefully if rates go up in the new year i will return to ratesetter. Lol currently 3.2% for 1 year... However ratesetter and lending works i found are far superior to zopa providing you have a strategy and invest at the right rates. Good luck
|
|
robski
Member of DD Central
Posts: 772
Likes: 462
|
Post by robski on Dec 10, 2018 9:41:35 GMT
On the full loanbook, I've seen mentions of it in a few places on Ratesetter but as yet not stumbled onto it. I've emailed them to see what they say about where i might find it if it exists. I checked out P2PFA, knowing they were not there since quite a few months ago to no avail either. Time on my hands, Mrs Aju hasn't wanted to go shopping for over two days now not sure if she's ill .... still need to sort Insurance for car and I'm behind a bit with my monthlies on Zopa accounts but yeah I'm sure I can find time to create yet another spreadsheet. Market data, then loan book But bear in mind its absolutely massive, its all the loans not your loans
|
|
|
Post by propman on Dec 10, 2018 9:47:03 GMT
Can't see where you are starting for this screen.
Its called the data hub and it can be found here (I added a link into the original message above). Its in the section 3 "Rate trends since 2010" I think the day in the datadump.csv is actually the day rate but its not really clear I say this as i pulled it yesterday and had yesterdays date in it. Thanks.
Same info under "Market Data" in left drop down but more broken up. This includes the Historic Loanbook.
Regards
PM
|
|