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Post by jagman on Feb 19, 2020 12:15:31 GMT
14/7/19--sold 16/2/19
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Post by moutarde on Feb 19, 2020 13:49:06 GMT
12/09 => sold on 18&19/02 17/09 => nothing yet And 17/09 sold today as well
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p2pstephan
Member of DD Central
Posts: 91
Likes: 79
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Post by p2pstephan on Feb 20, 2020 11:11:13 GMT
Sale today: 20/02/2020 Date requested: 04/10/2019
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upperdeane
Member of DD Central
Posts: 493
Likes: 245
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Post by upperdeane on Feb 20, 2020 16:39:43 GMT
9th round sale for me 19/02/20. 1.01% of the original £amt requested on 26/09/19.
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Post by dogeared on Feb 20, 2020 18:17:59 GMT
I note the cycle is currently reduced back to 8 days.
Does anyone know what causes these variations?
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Post by bernythedolt on Feb 20, 2020 19:07:22 GMT
I note the cycle is currently reduced back to 8 days.
Does anyone know what causes these variations?
Poisson.
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Post by Ace on Feb 20, 2020 19:32:45 GMT
I note the cycle is currently reduced back to 8 days.
Does anyone know what causes these variations?
Poisson. And red herrings!
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keitha
Member of DD Central
2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
Posts: 3,889
Likes: 2,321
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Post by keitha on Feb 20, 2020 20:26:40 GMT
I note the cycle is currently reduced back to 8 days.
Does anyone know what causes these variations?
weekends ? is it longer when you have 2 weekends in the cycle, I used to turn lending off at weekends to stop getting "recycled" loans
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Post by bernythedolt on Feb 20, 2020 21:48:47 GMT
I note the cycle is currently reduced back to 8 days. Does anyone know what causes these variations?
Poisson. Sorry, it was a bit glib but I wanted to give a one word answer to prove I don't always ramble on and on. Here's the lowdown for anyone interested... Certain attributes like the "number of Smarties in a tube" or "adult male heights in the UK" follow, and are well modelled by, the Normal distribution. Most people are familiar with its bell curve. A sample of 100 men's heights (for example) will cluster randomly around the population mean ("the average") and then tail off in a nice bell curve either side of the mean. REALLY tall or short men are in the extreme, so they fall into the tail ends of the bell. Many random events are very well described by the Normal distribution. Being a mathematical curve with well-defined characteristics means one can form reliable inferences about the whole population - without having to go out and measure every single individual. However, certain events, most notably time-based events like "how long can I expect my light bulb to last", or "how long before I next get a sale", are usually not a good fit to the Normal distribution and are better described instead by an alternative called the Poisson distribution. This has a broadly similar left hand side to the Normal curve, but a much more elongated tail on the right hand side. When the manufacturer states the expected life of your light bulb is three years, he's referring to the peak of the Poisson curve. But there will be more people finding it lasts well beyond that three year period than people who find it fails before the three years. That is, the Normal curve wouldn't describe the expected life of a light bulb at all well. Hence the elongated tail of the Poisson distribution, which does describe it well. There are of course a lot of factors determining how long you have to wait between each FC sale round, but the Poisson distribution is undoubtedly describing the wait time quite well. I suspect its peak - its average value (or "expectation" if you're a maths/stats geek) - is around the 9 day mark, with more "hits" in the upper reaches (12 days, 14 days) than the lower (7 days). If you go to page 1 and calculate the mean cycle time, it's still around 9 days, surprising as that might seem. The first one I chose purely at random was vckid's entry 3/12/19 11/12/19 18/12/19 28/12/19 7/1/20 14/1/20 24/1/20 5/2/20 16/2/20 So nine sales, meaning 8 periods which have taken 75 days elapsed. Or a mean wait time of 9.375 days. But people have experienced some lengthy waits like 14 and 15 days - i.e. 5 days above the mean. Contrast that with waits shorter than 9 days. There have been very few, if any, of 9.375 minus those 5 days, i.e. 4 days! The Poisson curve, with its elongated tail to the right of its peak at 9 days, seems to be fitting these data pretty well. So while Poisson isn't strictly the cause (to answer your question) it does describe the effect pretty well. Apologies for boring those already familiar with this stuff.
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 20, 2020 22:09:20 GMT
Poisson. Sorry, it was a bit glib but I wanted to give a one word answer to prove I don't always ramble on and on. Here's the lowdown for anyone interested... Certain attributes like the "number of Smarties in a tube" or "adult male heights in the UK" follow, and are well modelled by, the Normal distribution. Most people are familiar with its bell curve. A sample of 100 men's heights (for example) will cluster randomly around the population mean ("the average") and then tail off in a nice bell curve either side of the mean. REALLY tall or short men are in the extreme, so they fall into the tail ends of the bell. Many random events are very well described by the Normal distribution. Being a mathematical curve with well-defined characteristics means one can form reliable inferences about the whole population - without having to go out and measure every single individual. However, certain events, most notably time-based events like "how long can I expect my light bulb to last", or "how long before I next get a sale", are usually not a good fit to the Normal distribution and are better described instead by an alternative called the Poisson distribution. This has a broadly similar left hand side to the Normal curve, but a much more elongated tail on the right hand side. When the manufacturer states the expected life of your light bulb is three years, he's referring to the peak of the Poisson curve. But there will be more people finding it lasts well beyond that three year period than people who find it fails before the three years. That is, the Normal curve wouldn't describe the expected life of a light bulb at all well. Hence the elongated tail of the Poisson distribution, which does describe it well. There are of course a lot of factors determining how long you have to wait between each FC sale round, but the Poisson distribution is undoubtedly describing the wait time quite well. I suspect its peak - its average value (or "expectation" if you're a maths/stats geek) - is around the 9 day mark, with more "hits" in the upper reaches (12 days, 14 days) than the lower (7 days). If you go to page 1 and calculate the mean cycle time, it's still around 9 days, surprising as that might seem. The first one I chose purely at random was vckid's entry 3/12/19 11/12/19 18/12/19 28/12/19 7/1/20 14/1/20 24/1/20 5/2/20 16/2/20 So nine sales, meaning 8 periods which have taken 75 days elapsed. Or a mean wait time of 9.375 days. But people have experienced some lengthy waits like 14 and 15 days - i.e. 5 days above the mean. Contrast that with waits shorter than 9 days. There have been very few, if any, of 9.375 minus those 5 days, i.e. 4 days! The Poisson curve, with its elongated tail to the right of its peak at 9 days, seems to be fitting these data pretty well. So while Poisson isn't strictly the cause (to answer your question) it does describe the effect pretty well. Apologies for boring those already familiar with this stuff. Poison versus Gaussian distribution eh ? I love the smell of statistics in the morning. (Cue Ride of the Valkyries blasting out....)
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Post by bernythedolt on Feb 20, 2020 22:40:44 GMT
Poison versus Gaussian distribution eh ? I love the smell of statistics in the morning. (Cue Ride of the Valkyries blasting out....) Ride of the Valkyries? Like giraffe's danglies, that's gone over my head. EDIT: Ok, rousing stirring music... penny eventually dropped... takes me longer these days!
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Post by dan1 on Feb 20, 2020 22:46:32 GMT
Poison versus Gaussian distribution eh ? I love the smell of statistics in the morning. (Cue Ride of the Valkyries blasting out....) Ride of the Valkyries? Like giraffe's danglies, that's gone over my head.
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supyk
Posts: 25
Likes: 22
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Post by supyk on Feb 21, 2020 15:28:13 GMT
Ride of the Valkyries? Like giraffe's danglies, that's gone over my head. 0:58 - "Some day these sales are gonna end"
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Post by filippo on Feb 23, 2020 13:11:59 GMT
Sale requested 19/6 8th round 3/2 9th round 15/2
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lewis
Posts: 22
Likes: 17
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Post by lewis on Feb 23, 2020 21:49:04 GMT
Hi, I had a sale round this morning. Thanks for keeping this updated.
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