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Post by Mr Smith on Oct 14, 2019 16:05:34 GMT
Some of my loans have become sell-able again.
"Estimated funds from sale £50.5
Date requested October 14, 2019"
You can add that to your list. I'm happy they'll sell before Christmas....2020.
That's taking the p**s I know but I'd like all my money back :-)
Managed to get £2.54 out today.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Oct 14, 2019 16:11:51 GMT
No solution until either, or both, demand increases and sales decreases.
According to the stats on page 1 sales are decreasing from the June highs So Xmas may well see the peak in selling times given maintained or increased demand.
The message of course is never lend long when you may need to liquidate your position early. Unfortunately when sh1t hits everyone wants to sell and nobody wants to buy.
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Stonk
Stonking
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Post by Stonk on Oct 14, 2019 19:08:11 GMT
Just doing a little more work on this and forecasting sell dates based on the linear projection.
The linear equation works out at y=0.5348x-23244 (based on date x values in excel and y being the number of days to sell). The R2 value for the trendline is 0.9852. A value of 1 would mean a perfect linear correlation coefficient, so at 0.98 we can be confident that so far sell times have been increasing at a very steady and predictable rate.
That means going forward, and assuming the rate of growth in sell times remains constant, we can expect:
- 25/4/19 (Ref. indexwrangler), next on the list in criston post #1 to be sold on or around 26th June after 63 days
- Someone selling yesterday 14th June could expect to sell on or around 12th September after 89 days
A date for your diaries: 5 May 2028: "The Big Crunch".
This is the day when the time expected for a sale to execute exceeds the length of the longest loan term that FC offers.
On this day, FC will be able to retire the "Sell" functionality, safe in the knowledge that it could never again be of use.
I think I may need to revise forward the anticipated date of The Big Crunch ...
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 14, 2019 19:39:01 GMT
I can only think getting the money before Xmas from sale is much faster than getting 35% of recovery
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Post by captivator on Oct 14, 2019 20:54:11 GMT
It's not that I haven't updated the forum. It really is that I've now sat at the front of the queue here for an entire week!
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richv
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Post by richv on Oct 14, 2019 21:19:09 GMT
Straightforward question:
Why don't FC restart the old Secondary Market?
It would allow these in the selling Que who want/need there money back soon to sell at discount.
And re-ashore other sellers that they can sell, when they need/want to, so they may chose not to sell for now.
It would allow those of us who want to invest in old loans to so so, and those who want new ones to stick with the auto bid. this might slightly incress the total amount of money being invested.
It would end many of the bad headlines in new papers,
It would bring back a small additional income stream to FC that would help its quest for profitability.
FC must still have the software to do it! The only 2 reasons I can think of:
1) It would mean admitting they made a mistake by getting rid of the secondary market in the first place. 2) There may be a shortage of funds for the primary market for a short while while the backlog of old loans are sold at a discount.
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richv
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Post by richv on Oct 14, 2019 22:02:34 GMT
On this blog a few days ago somebody asked 'Why would anybody buy/invest in old loans from FC?' it was in the context of so many of the 2016/17/18 loans turning in to bad debt. And I noticed 2 things:
1) On the FC statistics page, for loans form 2012/13/14 there are few defaults in the last 2 years, especially the last 18 months. this may not be replicated exactly but I think in will follow a simile pattern with very few defaults near the end of loans. 2) Looking at my defaulted loans, it would seem that in most cased loans that defaulted when late some time before, in most cases 8 months or more.
On that bases i'm now not sure if selling up (in Jan and Feb 19) was the best stratge. Most of my loans were 2 years old, so I've now had 2 years intrest and defaults that basically canceled each other out, most of the Year 3 defaults but without the interest, and non of the Year 4 and 5 that would have had very few defaults. never mind too late to do anything about it now, and I am still Mad at FC for turning a good market leading and cutting edge P2P platform in to the monstrosity it is now and as the biggest Platform of its type give a bad name to the industry.
I did wonder if there is a way of investing, and only buying old loans, I had £12.50 in my old account form recoverys, so thought I would tern on the auto bid. I had assumed that the smallest loan would still be £20.00 so with 12.50 I would get a lone that had partly repaid it wasn't its now £10.00 and I have a brand new loan to show for it.
Does anybody know a way to 'game' the algorithm to only get old loans? Only tern auto-bid on at weekends or overnight? There probably isn't a way to do this, but just asking on this website because I would be willing to take the loans of the hands of many people reading this blog who would love to sell right now!!!
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tjtl
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Post by tjtl on Oct 15, 2019 6:49:49 GMT
Just been hit by another raft of defaults which takes my returns over the past 9 months deep into negative territory. I had no defaults for the past 10 days so they do seem to bundle them up so that you can get an exciting present in one go every couple of weeks. Been watching the non-movement of the sale queue with increasing misery- it is my daughter's 30th birthday tomorrow and the cash from the sale was being used to fund something special- ah well, there is always dear old barclaycard (and to be fair the cash generation over the past month from normal redemptions has been decent). The more time that passes the more I think that FCs business model, which depends to a large extent on confidence, is broken- they need a reboot of some description.
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criston
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Post by criston on Oct 15, 2019 7:03:19 GMT
I note the FC investment trust are buying back large amounts of their own shares, presumably from normal repayments, which will relieve future sales of loans. Edit. www.smecreditrealisation.com/documents/rns. This link does not work properly, but does if googled. They are allowed to buy back up to 15% at present unless there is a vote to up it. They had £164m FC UK loans on 11/6/19 which are probably down to under £150m now after repayments. The question is, are FC now trying to accommodate upcoming sales from the investment trust.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Oct 15, 2019 7:13:49 GMT
I note the FC investment trust are buying back large amounts of their own shares, presumably from normal repayments, which will relieve future sales of loans. www.smecreditrealisation.com/documents/factsheetsThey are allowed to buy back up to 15% at present unless there is a vote to up it. They had £164m FC UK loans on 11/6/19 which are probably down to under £150m now after repayments. The question is, are FC now trying to accommodate upcoming sales from the investment trust. The IT is buying its shares. There is no impact on loans. The IT continues to wind down its book naturally, and as I understand it does not sell loans but merely books repayments.
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criston
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Post by criston on Oct 15, 2019 7:16:26 GMT
I note the FC investment trust are buying back large amounts of their own shares, presumably from normal repayments, which will relieve future sales of loans. www.smecreditrealisation.com/documents/factsheets This link does not work properly, but does if googled. They are allowed to buy back up to 15% at present unless there is a vote to up it. They had £164m FC UK loans on 11/6/19 which are probably down to under £150m now after repayments. The question is, are FC now trying to accommodate upcoming sales from the investment trust. The IT is buying it’s shares. There is no impact on loans. The IT continues to wind down its book naturally, and as I understand it does not sell loans but merely uses repayments. That is what I indicated. But what is it to do in the future if more than repayments are wanted, much like most of us here ?
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criston
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Post by criston on Oct 15, 2019 7:33:27 GMT
At the risk of losing some on this forum and thread and at the risk of stretching the tenuous similarities, Neil Woodford’s Equitiy Income Fund is to shut down and NOT reopen in December or later. While not completely analogous to the FC situation it does provide a “gory” illustration of what happens when a poorly understood, popularity-led situation is badly managed and a liquidity run begins. FC’s situation isn’t quite as dire as NW’s. For example they aren’t totally reliant on retail. But if FC lose institutional support they’ll be finished too. It was an “institutional” withdrawal that was the straw/bale that broke the NW camel’s back (Kent Council). Thankfully institutional money invested in FC loans is not subject to a withdrawal request. There’s no putting sale parts up for sale. In extreme an institution could sell its whole packaged bundle of whole loans if a willing party was found. FCIH/SCRF is not to my understanding selling individual loans and has not sold packaged bundles of loans. They are collecting the capital and interest and any cash above the normal dividend is being used to buy back the IT shares to prop up its flagging share price. If the share price wasn’t flagging they might have used special dividend to distribute additional cash. The vote on 11/6/19 for an orderly wind down could have been the start of selling loans, unless anyone is more informed. They would not yet be at the front of the queue.
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Post by jaycee on Oct 15, 2019 7:42:52 GMT
The IT is buying it’s shares. There is no impact on loans. The IT continues to wind down its book naturally, and as I understand it does not sell loans but merely uses repayments. That is what I indicated. But what is it to do in the future if more than repayments are wanted, much like most of us here ? It's a Trust not a Fund so that doesn't happen - you can buy or sell shares in it if you can find a willing buyer, like the secondary market used to be. You can't go to Funding Circle and demand your money back. If you still hold the shares at the end of the process you will presumably get your appropriate share of whatever cash is produced.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Oct 15, 2019 8:19:20 GMT
The vote on 11/6/19 for an orderly wind down could have been the start of selling loans, unless anyone is more informed. They would not yet be at the front of the queue. Any process by which FCIT/SCRF uses to sell whole loans to other institutional investors is likely to be completely separate and unrelated to the retail sales queue. I'm not sure where your information that suggests they're in any way affected by (or have any effect on) the retail sales queue came from.
Perhaps more relevant, however, is that the people who are sufficiently desparate to sell their shares in SCRF in the current environment are doing so at a substantial discount to the value of the assets... how many of the people currently in the retail sales queue would be offering more than a 10% discount to buyers if that was what was necessary to secure an immediate sale?
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Stonk
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Post by Stonk on Oct 15, 2019 9:10:15 GMT
The vote on 11/6/19 for an orderly wind down could have been the start of selling loans, unless anyone is more informed. They would not yet be at the front of the queue. Any process by which FCIT/SCRF uses to sell whole loans to other institutional investors is likely to be completely separate and unrelated to the retail sales queue. I'm not sure where your information that suggests they're in any way affected by (or have any effect on) the retail sales queue came from.
Perhaps more relevant, however, is that the people who are sufficiently desparate to sell their shares in SCRF in the current environment are doing so at a substantial discount to the value of the assets... how many of the people currently in the retail sales queue would be offering more than a 10% discount to buyers if that was what was necessary to secure an immediate sale?
If I could buy secondary loans at a 10% discount, I would be straight back into FC in a flash. The ability to sell at a discount would solve FC's queue problem in no time.
It won't happen, though. There would be acres of negative publicity generated by lenders who "lost money because my only way to sell was at a discount".
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