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Post by Mr Smith on Oct 15, 2019 10:16:45 GMT
NO don't do it you will go to back of queue The one nice thing about the internet is there are so many genuine idiots on it, you can post stuff like this for giggles and genuine kind-hearted folk have good reason to feel it might be plausible. Sorry for yanking your chains. Really just killing time while I hit refresh to see if the sale has gone through yet! Still waiting ? The 7 day hiatus between the last sale here and the letter that was sent out is a bit of a coincidence !!! I feel very lucky right now and I hope the queue get's unblocked very soon.
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dorset
Member of DD Central
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Post by dorset on Oct 15, 2019 11:14:57 GMT
On this blog a few days ago somebody asked 'Why would anybody buy/invest in old loans from FC?' it was in the context of so many of the 2016/17/18 loans turning in to bad debt. And I noticed 2 things: 1) On the FC statistics page, for loans form 2012/13/14 there are few defaults in the last 2 years, especially the last 18 months. this may not be replicated exactly but I think in will follow a simile pattern with very few defaults near the end of loans. 2) Looking at my defaulted loans, it would seem that in most cased loans that defaulted when late some time before, in most cases 8 months or more. On that bases i'm now not sure if selling up (in Jan and Feb 19) was the best stratge. Most of my loans were 2 years old, so I've now had 2 years intrest and defaults that basically canceled each other out, most of the Year 3 defaults but without the interest, and non of the Year 4 and 5 that would have had very few defaults. never mind too late to do anything about it now, and I am still Mad at FC for turning a good market leading and cutting edge P2P platform in to the monstrosity it is now and as the biggest Platform of its type give a bad name to the industry. I did wonder if there is a way of investing, and only buying old loans, I had £12.50 in my old account form recoverys, so thought I would tern on the auto bid. I had assumed that the smallest loan would still be £20.00 so with 12.50 I would get a lone that had partly repaid it wasn't its now £10.00 and I have a brand new loan to show for it. Does anybody know a way to 'game' the algorithm to only get old loans? Only tern auto-bid on at weekends or overnight? There probably isn't a way to do this, but just asking on this website because I would be willing to take the loans of the hands of many people reading this blog who would love to sell right now!!! Not sure if that is the case. The default curve does flatten out over time but the graph is defaults by value and not by number. Hence a default near the end of its term will of course have a lower value as most of the loan has been paid off. For example one of my defaults (5218) went under with only one payment out of sixty remaining and hence I lost the princely sum of 0.42p.
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Post by shanghaiscouse on Oct 15, 2019 13:23:15 GMT
You cannot compare 2012/13/14 loans to those written in 2018. They have applied totally different lending standards. IN 2012,13 and 14, even 15 and 16, they were trying to build their IPO track record, be cautious, avoid losses, create a nice story. Pre- and post-IPO they threw caution to the wind to grow at all costs.
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Post by shanghaiscouse on Oct 15, 2019 13:47:08 GMT
So, following the email last week, I am wondering, was what they were saying in that mail that they have now stopped selling pending a change to the selling feature? That wasn't immediately obvious to me from the email, but it seems to be happening in practice?
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criston
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Post by criston on Oct 15, 2019 14:02:40 GMT
I must return to the conversation earlier regarding the FC investment Trust.
That is, leaving aside the share buy backs made, using repayments from their loan holdings, the cash for which would have been used to buy more loans had they not been winding down; which would have been a considerable sum.
I still ask the question. Why wouldn't the investment trust initiate an instruction to sell loans, in a similar manner that we do, when they voted for an orderly wind down on 11/6/19.
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criston
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Post by criston on Oct 15, 2019 15:27:06 GMT
But surely the IT assets are Funding Circle loans that they originally invested in & now need to liquidate, the same as the rest us who are selling.
How else would they wind down their assets to repay cash to shareholders.
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Post by Mr Smith on Oct 15, 2019 15:33:31 GMT
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Post by Mr Smith on Oct 15, 2019 15:35:14 GMT
So, following the email last week, I am wondering, was what they were saying in that mail that they have now stopped selling pending a change to the selling feature? That wasn't immediately obvious to me from the email, but it seems to be happening in practice? I re-read the email and there is nothing to imply that this is the case. However, it is very coincidental. Perhaps they're reached the point that there is not enough coming in to cover loans + repayments. Doesn't mean they have problems, just means loans will be turned down and repayments impossible. Not a great situation for those stuck if they need the money but they should still see a return.
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richv
Posts: 42
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Post by richv on Oct 15, 2019 16:17:52 GMT
On this blog a few days ago somebody asked 'Why would anybody buy/invest in old loans from FC?' it was in the context of so many of the 2016/17/18 loans turning in to bad debt. And I noticed 2 things: 1) On the FC statistics page, for loans form 2012/13/14 there are few defaults in the last 2 years, especially the last 18 months. this may not be replicated exactly but I think in will follow a simile pattern with very few defaults near the end of loans. 2) Looking at my defaulted loans, it would seem that in most cased loans that defaulted when late some time before, in most cases 8 months or more. On that bases i'm now not sure if selling up (in Jan and Feb 19) was the best stratge. Most of my loans were 2 years old, so I've now had 2 years intrest and defaults that basically canceled each other out, most of the Year 3 defaults but without the interest, and non of the Year 4 and 5 that would have had very few defaults. never mind too late to do anything about it now, and I am still Mad at FC for turning a good market leading and cutting edge P2P platform in to the monstrosity it is now and as the biggest Platform of its type give a bad name to the industry. I did wonder if there is a way of investing, and only buying old loans, I had £12.50 in my old account form recoverys, so thought I would tern on the auto bid. I had assumed that the smallest loan would still be £20.00 so with 12.50 I would get a lone that had partly repaid it wasn't its now £10.00 and I have a brand new loan to show for it. Does anybody know a way to 'game' the algorithm to only get old loans? Only tern auto-bid on at weekends or overnight? There probably isn't a way to do this, but just asking on this website because I would be willing to take the loans of the hands of many people reading this blog who would love to sell right now!!! Not sure if that is the case. The default curve does flatten out over time but the graph is defaults by value and not by number. Hence a default near the end of its term will of course have a lower value as most of the loan has been paid off. For example one of my defaults (5218) went under with only one payment out of sixty remaining and hence I lost the princely sum of 0.42p. That's a good point and yes I've re-read the top of that graph it is defiantly value of loans not number of loans, however the extent of the flattering is still extreme. It feels natural that a company that had made 3 or 4 years worth of repayments on a loan would be more likely on average to finish making those payments than company who have a track record of say one year. Maybe not but I think so. If FC still published there full lone book we could calculate but as they do not then that's not an option. As stated I would buy up some of the 2017 and earlier lones from those trying to sell if there was a way. It will be a risk but one I would take with my money.
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richv
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Post by richv on Oct 15, 2019 16:39:16 GMT
But surely the IT assets are Funding Circle loans that they originally invested in & now need to liquidate, the same as the rest us who are selling. How else would they wind down their assets to repay cash to shareholders. I clam no expertness in this, But my assumption is that all of the money from the loans, (interest, repayments, and recovery of defaulted loans) will be given back as dividends or buy backs, and non of it will be used to 'invest' in new loans. As such the outstanding loans will whittle down over the next 5 years in an 'orderly manner' Therefor, FC will be looking for retail investors (like us) to be cover a bigger proportion of the funding for Loans FC is making, So if FC where arranging 100 loans per week, and the IT Fund would in the past typically take 10 of those, and retail investors the other 90, now FC needs to find sufficient investors funds for all 100. If FC are diverting more money to financing new loans that would mean less money left to buy only loans of the secondary market, which would explain the slow down in sales. it could also explain why FC appear to have restarted advertising for investors not just borrowers. As to why cant IT just sell on the FC secondary market like the rest of us, I Suspect there is no provision to, as in the loans are not hosted in the same way, the lones are not broken down with the same loan numbers to work with the algorithms that run the FC retail inverts site. Could FC facilitate this? Yes it would not be hard to sort out, but its has no incentive to be helpful in this way, its short on investors as it is.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Oct 15, 2019 16:45:04 GMT
But surely the IT assets are Funding Circle loans that they originally invested in & now need to liquidate, the same as the rest us who are selling. How else would they wind down their assets to repay cash to shareholders. Funding Circle "randomly" allocated loans to either the "whole loans" (institutional) market or the "partial loans" (retail) market (I think that rejects from either market were then to be passed to the other, but in practice there were few if any rejects from the retail market - at least not on grounds other than "we ran out of money for now", whilst a loan that no institutional investor wanted to touch would end up in the retail market).
In the "whole loans" market institutions bid to receive an entire loan (but as I understand it, FC still do all the donkey work for them and take a fee). I have no idea if there's any on-site secondary market for whole loans, but one way or another they need to find a willing buyer who will take the whole loan from them (and being freed from restrictions intended to protect retail investors, will likely be able to strike a deal at whatever price a willing buyer will pay, even for late or defaulted loans). In the "partial loans" market, retail investors bid to receive a small part of a loan (up to a maximum of £2000 per loan part as I recall), and the secondary market we all know about is available with its various restrictions meaning some loans cannot be sold.
How do they wind down their assets without selling? The same way as all of you are while waiting in the queue - by receiving repayments and not reinvesting them into new loans.
For very rough ballpark figures, suppose that with a mature portfolio valued at more than £300M until recently (with a mix of all ages and lengths of loan), the IT might expect to receive perhaps half of that value back within a year (say, roughly £150M). This would represent close to 100% of all loans with less than 12 months to run, about half of amortising loans with exactly 24 months to run (including brand new 2 year loans, 1-year-old 3 year loans, etc.). With roughly 250 working days per year, that's about £0.6M per working day on average. Share repurchases that have been occurring at no more than 400,000 per working day seem well within the amount it would expect to receive just from repayments alone.
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coogaruk
Hello everyone! Anyone remember me?
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Post by coogaruk on Oct 15, 2019 17:32:35 GMT
How do they wind down their assets without selling? The same way as all of you are while waiting in the queue - by receiving repayments and not reinvesting them into new loans. That's exactly what I've been doing for just over two years now.
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criston
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Post by criston on Oct 15, 2019 17:58:45 GMT
35% of the IT loans were whole loans, originated from the FC marketplace. That's around £50m of UK loans.
If those were placed for sale over a period since 11/6/19 in good faith, when the waiting time was around 60 days & the IT managers had no idea it would extend to 130 days, there could be high level discussions in FC as to the upcoming situation.
This could be the reason for the recent FC email.
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upperdeane
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Post by upperdeane on Oct 15, 2019 18:36:14 GMT
So, following the email last week, I am wondering, was what they were saying in that mail that they have now stopped selling pending a change to the selling feature? That wasn't immediately obvious to me from the email, but it seems to be happening in practice? Maybe one of you who received the email could contact them and clarify. I'd be interested in knowing as it appears sales have stopped based on this thread. I never received the email myself even though I've been in the sales queue for a few weeks.
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richv
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Post by richv on Oct 15, 2019 18:50:19 GMT
35% of the IT loans were whole loans, originated from the FC marketplace. That's around £50m of UK loans. If those were placed for sale over a period since 11/6/19 in good faith, when the waiting time was around 60 days & the IT managers had no idea it would extend to 130 days, there could be high level discussions in FC as to the upcoming situation. This could be the reason for the recent FC email. Where only 35% FC whole loans? I had thought/assumed it was all FC whole loans, do we know what the rest is? Loan partss from other FC loans or from other P2P Platforms?
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