keitha
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Post by keitha on Dec 2, 2019 16:08:16 GMT
If you think the tories are "extremists" ( if you describe hard Brexit bas extreme ) well I'd agree, but Lib Dems are extremist they would overturn the result of the referendum without consulting us. Labour badly anti semitic, but also I believe racist ( you could argue that it's the same thing ), but also in wales etc the public feel betrayed by labour who in 2017 said the would deliver Brexit, yet we have labour MPs who constantly voted against it, and a welsh assembly dominated by remainers despite 2/3 of the vote being leave.Personally I believe that we may get a more defined leave electoral pact yet, where tories stand aside to give Brexit party a free run in areas where people could not bring themselves to vote tory but would vote for BP. This could lead to a short term coalition to deliver Brexit and a public vote with 2 options "Bo Jo deal, No deal" I also wonder just how many candidates UKIP will field, because I forsee 20-30 seats where the now tiny UKIP vote could swing things. Now my totally unscientific Poll, I've walked round the village and counted placards in gardens and posters in windows. I've see 0 for Plaid / Lib Dems / Greens, 1 tory, 4 labour and 15 Brexit so on that basis 450 Brexit MP, 120 labour . 30 tory In Wales, of those who voted, 52% in 2016 voted Leave. Where does your 2/3 vote come from? my mistake for which I appologise 68% where I am voted leave, labour ( most of wales voted out but influenced by Cardiff and Newport voiting heavily remain ) in Sennedd claim Leave only won in wales because of the incomers.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 2, 2019 17:11:53 GMT
labour ... claim Leave only won in wales because of the incomers. So should the votes of people from different parts of the country somehow carry different weight...?
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Dec 3, 2019 9:40:54 GMT
labour ... claim Leave only won in wales because of the incomers. So should the votes of people from different parts of the country somehow carry different weight...? they do ! on average 71,000 electors in a constituency in England 55,000 in wales, basically means wales is over represented by 1/3.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 3, 2019 9:44:08 GMT
labour ... claim Leave only won in wales because of the incomers. So should the votes of people from different parts of the country somehow carry different weight...? they do ! on average 71,000 electors in a constituency in England 55,000 in wales, basically means wales is over represented by 1/3. Which, of course, is one of the things the four devolved boundary commissions are trying to change with the review that's now overdue thanks to the government sitting on it. But, as should have been obvious from the context, that's not what I was meaning. I was meaning within a constituency. Three generations in the churchyard? Your vote has more weight than the blow-in from off who lives next door.
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Dec 3, 2019 9:56:51 GMT
adrianc Ah no, what I was originally saying id that Mr Drakeford is saying leave only prevailed in wales because of English living here ( The more I think on it surely such a statement is "racist" implying incomer English are over ruling democratic views of the Welsh.)
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 3, 2019 10:26:27 GMT
adrianc Ah no, what I was originally saying id that Mr Drakeford is saying leave only prevailed in wales because of English living here ( The more I think on it surely such a statement is "racist" implying incomer English are over ruling democratic views of the Welsh.) Yes, exactly... So is he saying that the votes of "the English living there" should somehow count for less when it comes than votes from those who call themselves Welsh? And who gets to define the scale? Does that only apply to the four main regions of the country? Or could <say> the Cornish also discount votes from incomers? Northern constituencies ignore southerner incomers? And that's before we get to local rivalries like Manchester/Liverpool...
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Dec 3, 2019 19:59:42 GMT
Has this chap applied the same analysis logic on English voter demographics in the Brexit referendum to the London voter demographic? He has deduced that most English voted leave; the London vote being the main outlier to his deduction.
With so few English (let alone British), living in London, perhaps the London vote is not very representative of the overall English vote? Er, EU citizens couldn't vote in the referendum. Nor in general elections for that matter. Only those from Ireland or Commonwealth countries can vote. Do you seriously think Leave would have won if the over 3 million non-Irish EU citizens living in the UK had the right to vote?
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Vero
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Post by Vero on Dec 3, 2019 20:06:37 GMT
With all respect, mrk , I think you have missed my point (I was referencing the "logic" (IE & lack thereof) of this party leader's statement)
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Dec 3, 2019 20:10:06 GMT
Mr Drakeford is saying leave only prevailed in wales because of English living here That's completely irrelevant in any case. Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain, but none of the Brexiters are saying they can stay in the EU. The vote was UK wide.
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Dec 3, 2019 20:20:46 GMT
With all respect, mrk , I think you have missed my point. How so? You said Many of those non-British living in London simply cannot vote, so by definition they have no influence on the vote and its representativeness of the English or British.
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Vero
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Post by Vero on Dec 3, 2019 20:40:10 GMT
With all respect, mrk , I think you have missed my point. How so? You said Many of those non-British living in London simply cannot vote, so by definition they have no influence on the vote and its representativeness of the English or British. mrk I actually deleted the post before you posted your reply as, upon re-reading, I saw the risk of the actual point being overriden.
Very simply put, the political party leader was using dubious logic to make a dubious point to suit his, and/or his party's, political agenda.
My point was, had he applied the same dubious logic to, say, London, he would not get a result that suited his political agenda, therefore he likely would not do so. In summary, it's dubious, and political agenda driven...
(btw those stats are based on country of birth outside UK, not nationality, citizenship, commonwealth membership, or right to vote; and are not skewed toward EU member states... or anecdotal evidence... but I digress )
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Dec 3, 2019 21:13:00 GMT
mrk I actually deleted the post before you posted your reply as, upon re-reading, I saw the risk of the actual point being overriden. Very simply put, the political party leader was using dubious logic to make a dubious point to suit his, and/or his party's, political agenda.
My point was, had he applied the same dubious logic to, say, London, he would not get a result that suited his political agenda, therefore he likely would not do so. In summary, it's dubious, and political agenda driven... I fully agree on Drakeford's logic being rubbish, but unfortunately you didn't just apply the same logic to London, you also added another logic mistake of your own by implying that all those non-British people who live in London can also vote. That's what I had to object to. 😉
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Vero
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Post by Vero on Dec 3, 2019 21:55:39 GMT
mrk I actually deleted the post before you posted your reply as, upon re-reading, I saw the risk of the actual point being overriden. Very simply put, the political party leader was using dubious logic to make a dubious point to suit his, and/or his party's, political agenda.
My point was, had he applied the same dubious logic to, say, London, he would not get a result that suited his political agenda, therefore he likely would not do so. In summary, it's dubious, and political agenda driven... I fully agree on Drakeford's logic being rubbish, but unfortunately you didn't just apply the same logic to London, you also added another logic mistake of your own by implying that all those non-British people who live in London can also vote. That's what I had to object to. 😉 yes... I was *illustrating* a point of using dubious logic...
You have objected to my *illustration* of applying the exact same logic, to another voter demographic, to *show* that it is dubious logic.
Pfff I deleted the post before any responses to avoid possible confusion (too late, obviously); however I very specifically wrote something along the lines of:
"if we applied the exact same logic as Mr Drakeford used, as quoted above ("Mr Drakeford is saying leave only prevailed in Wales because of English living here"), then we would conclude that "remain only prevailed in London because of not so many English living there"; however I expect that is not his political agenda"
I thought it was clear that my point was that the logic used by the political party leader, and his analysis of voter demographics, was dubious, political agenda driven, and would not stand up to scrutiny.
Clearly it was not clear... phew.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 4, 2019 11:50:03 GMT
Er, EU citizens couldn't vote in the referendum. Nor in general elections for that matter. Only those from Ireland or Commonwealth countries can vote. And let's not forget who those "Commonwealth countries" are. They include India, Pakistan, Nigeria. It is, of course, the last knockings of that oh-so-laudable period of UK history that we called the Empire... It's nearly 60 countries, and one third of humanity - just under 2.5bn people, 94% from Asian or African countries. There are ~30% more Commonwealth-national 15-29yos than the total population of the EU - including the UK. thecommonwealth.org/member-countriesOTOH, my mother-in-law, who moved here from Sweden in the 1950s and lived here for 50 years, could never vote here. When she first moved here, newly married to a British national she met on holiday in Norway, she had to register at the police station every fortnight. Without the EU, they simply wouldn't have been able to live together here under today's rules. www.gov.uk/uk-family-visa/partner-spouse - nope, hadn't lived together outside the UK for 2.5yrs.
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Post by captainconfident on Dec 5, 2019 15:03:39 GMT
As I bought 100k of Sterling when it was at 1.085 to the euro, I'm very interested in the performance of the pound. What is interesting is that the slump of the £ on the day after the referendum from 1.30 to the low teens was entirely down to fear of a non-EU future. But recent rises point to another factor being much stronger.
The Pound has risen strongly and dropped back accordingly when opinion polls come out, relative to the likelyhood of a Conservative victory. This seems counterintuitive remembering the post referendum slump. So the current interest on FX markets is how close Jeremy Corbyn gets to the door of No. 10, notwithstanding that that makes a new referendum more likely with its almost certain remain result. Just saying.
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