keitha
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2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on Sept 26, 2022 21:31:21 GMT
5th November would've been appropriate
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2022 1:10:33 GMT
Just heard a great definition of the UK economy
A 'submerging' market - one that is returning to emerging market status.
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Post by crabbyoldgit on Sept 27, 2022 5:59:30 GMT
Unable to claw any more wealth out of the ordinary population to give to the top 5% . The plebs might starve , riot or just give up working as its not worth getting out of bed to do. They are going to give the wealth earned by your children , grand children and great grand children to the rich now and leave them with the bill in the future. Also of course the interest rate gets so high morgage repayments cause a price crash and all that cheap property can be hoovered up and rented back to the previous owner's who went bust in negative equity.
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Post by bracknellboy on Sept 27, 2022 6:36:10 GMT
Unable to claw any more wealth out of the ordinary population to give to the top 5% . The plebs might starve , riot or just give up working as its not worth getting out of bed to do. They are going to give the wealth earned by your children , grand children and great grand children to the rich now and leave them with the bill in the future. Also of course the interest rate gets so high morgage repayments cause a price crash and all that cheap property can be hoovered up and rented back to the previous owner's who went bust in negative equity. Christ, you woke up in a good mood.
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Post by bracknellboy on Sept 27, 2022 6:37:29 GMT
I'm not sure they even read their own book? Debt is never just about debt. It is a symptom of the irresponsibility that runs underneath, an attempt to enjoy more than one is prepared to pay for. Through history, governments and investors have found themselves in trouble when they have let their optimism run ahead of their caution. States have lost the faith of the markets when they have lost the ability to ability to tell their populations that they can't have everything now. Debt crises are dangerous precisely because they arrive when their victims have become too complacent to prepare for them. It is not a coincidence that British growth now seems stagnant, debt is spiralling and the public sector has grown out of control. Governments that lose control of their spending lose control of their economy.Britannia Unchained: Global Lessons for Growth and Prosperity, p. 33by Kwasi Kwarteng, P. Patel, Dominic Raab, Chris Skidmore, Elizabeth Truss Raab read it - that's why he supported Rishi ! Still, looking at that list of authors, it doesn't feel like it was the product of the Brains Trust
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2022 7:46:47 GMT
I understand that KK is very much a person who tells you what to do and is large and imposing phisically. I suspect he is not used to actually having to explain to people what he is trying to do and to take on board the views of others (like the money men), hence his defenestration of his chief civil servant.
It appears he shocked the market and the market kicked back.
It is with this level of competence that we have to look forward for the next 2 years.
To be fair John Macdonald was very much of that style as well. Having confidence is not what leading people is about, the clever people start nudging everyone in the direction they want to go then rush to the front of the crowd and wave a flag.
One of my Italian friends were bemoaning their new government, don't worry it is only for 9 months (I reminded him)
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Post by crabbyoldgit on Sept 27, 2022 7:58:02 GMT
Christ, you woke up in a good mood. Its all in the name
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Sept 27, 2022 8:11:18 GMT
Just heard a great definition of the UK economy A 'submerging' market - one that is returning to emerging market status. And the source for that? "It makes me very sorry to say, but I think the UK is behaving a bit like an emerging market turning itself into a submerging market. Between Brexit, how far the Bank of England got behind the curve and now these fiscal policies, I think Britain will be remembered for having pursuing the worst macroeconomic policies of any major country in a long time. It would not surprise me if the pound eventually gets below a dollar, if the current path is maintained…This is simply not a moment for the kind of naïve, wishful thinking, supply-side economics that is being pursued in Britain."Larry Summers - former US Treasury Secretary, Chief Economist of the World Bank, President of Harvard. Still, what does he know, eh?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Sept 27, 2022 8:12:05 GMT
5th November would've been appropriate I was thinking more 1st April.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2022 13:23:34 GMT
Just seen a nice description of the risk premium investors are now demanding to hold UK assets thanks to Truss and Kami-Kwaze.
'MRP' - Moron Risk Premium
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2022 15:52:28 GMT
10-Y gilt yield just jumped over 4.5%. 25-Y now over 5%.
Deutsche Bank put out a graph of historical gilt moves. Last volatility of this magnitude in the gilt market was when the UK went to the IMF for a bailout.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Sept 27, 2022 17:04:12 GMT
This news of Labour's proposal could have gone in several threads but I put it here as I'd much rather doing something like that than simply give away 5% to those unlikely to need it. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63046067Do the party membership rules preclude membership of more than one party I wonder ?
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Sept 27, 2022 18:00:31 GMT
10-Y gilt yield just jumped over 4.5%. 25-Y now over 5%. Deutsche Bank put out a graph of historical gilt moves. Last volatility of this magnitude in the gilt market was when the UK went to the IMF for a bailout. Truss - "titter, squeak, GROWTH!, awkward pause; awkward smile". Markets - "lol nope". EDIT: This is... telling. markets.ft.com/data/bonds/tearsheet/summary?s=UK10YGBetter if you click on "Comparisons" and add Bunds, Treasuries and JGBs.
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Post by bernythedolt on Sept 27, 2022 19:03:23 GMT
In today's Telegraph, economics professor Patrick Minford writes, "There is no sterling crisis, except in the minds of idiots". He concludes, "Nor is it any sort of disaster for sterling to fall and boost our industrial competitiveness – far more worrying if it was being artificially held up by some misconceived “strong pound” policy. We now have rightly a set of policies on tax and regulation to stimulate growth. It is important to leave sterling free to find the level that will allow these policies to work by pushing up the trade balance and direct investment inflows in the balance of payments.
We should let markets work and pay no attention to idiots who cry “crisis”. "
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Sept 27, 2022 19:24:55 GMT
Patrick Minford is also the economist who thinks distance has no effect on trade (and was the supposed leading economic light on the Leave side).
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