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Post by martin44 on Jan 26, 2023 22:24:53 GMT
Can the Tories recover? ... or are we heading for another 2010 type coalition... maybe with the the reform party... or OUT AND OUT LABOUR?  |
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Jan 26, 2023 22:56:24 GMT
Labour with about a 100 seat majority IMO
Betfair have a labour majority at about evens.
may be influenced if the seats are reformed ( ie redistributions of constituencies )
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Post by martin44 on Jan 26, 2023 22:58:31 GMT
Labour with about a 100 seat majority ill hold you to that. 
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 27, 2023 9:12:58 GMT
Difficult to know at this distance. It's due January 2025, unless Sunak (or his internal replacement...) calls it earlier. Two years is a VERY long time in the current political environment!
But, AIUI, a lot of senior Tories are admitting they know they have zero chance. It's a case of how much they can salvage the wreckage.
So the question is which way it'll go?
Starmer's whole "Make Brexit Work" line is based on one group of voters - the "red wall" core Labour vote that were alienated by Corbyn and went Tory last time. They won't do that again, but which way DO they go? Surely the risk for Labour is that they head rightwards from the Tories to a resurgent Farage. Meanwhile, the hard-left Labour core voters are busy attacking Starmer for simply not being Corbyn.
Oh, and the LibDems seem determined to seek out ever-deeper obscurity.
The local elections in May might be interesting - not least because they're the first with mandatory photo ID for all voters... Will that disenfranchise large swathes?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 27, 2023 9:20:01 GMT
may be influenced if the seats are reformed ( ie redistributions of constituencies ) Not sure I'm holding my breath for that... The current review's only just been started. boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/2023-review/guide-to-the-2023-review-of-parliamentary-constituencies/It's due to produce its report before July, then there's four months to lay the legal order before Parliament, and it comes into effect on the next election. But the last few have been abandoned... Shame, because it's hideously overdue, and the last set of recommendations made a lot of sense as far as roun' by yer went.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jan 27, 2023 9:54:25 GMT
Difficult to know at this distance. It's due January 2025, unless Sunak (or his internal replacement...) calls it earlier. Two years is a VERY long time in the current political environment! But, AIUI, a lot of senior Tories are admitting they know they have zero chance. It's a case of how much they can salvage the wreckage. So the question is which way it'll go? Starmer's whole "Make Brexit Work" line is based on one group of voters - the "red wall" core Labour vote that were alienated by Corbyn and went Tory last time. They won't do that again, but which way DO they go? Surely the risk for Labour is that they head rightwards from the Tories to a resurgent Farage. Meanwhile, the hard-left Labour core voters are busy attacking Starmer for simply not being Corbyn. Oh, and the LibDems seem determined to seek out ever-deeper obscurity. The local elections in May might be interesting - not least because they're the first with mandatory photo ID for all voters... Will that disenfranchise large swathes? Umm, where do I get photo ID from (given that I don't currently have a valid passport)?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 27, 2023 10:02:38 GMT
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jan 27, 2023 10:05:05 GMT
hmm, I might have a valid drivers license. I don't have a car so I might well just have forgotten about it. Anyway, "  " and all that. And adrianc, thank you, that was a helpful post. |
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Post by bracknellboy on Jan 27, 2023 10:30:25 GMT
.... The local elections in May might be interesting - not least because they're the first with mandatory photo ID for all voters... Will that disenfranchise large swathes?My instinctive reaction to this is that it makes my blood boil. If we want to go down this route, then we should just get on and have universal national ID cards - which I'm in favour of as I think it provides some solutions to a range of "problems". However, I see that if I have a postal vote - which I do - I don't need photo ID. OK.
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Post by bracknellboy on Jan 27, 2023 10:32:04 GMT
hmm, I might have a valid drivers license. I don't have a car so I might well just have forgotten about it. Anyway, " " and all that. And adrianc , thank you, that was a helpful post. there are get out clauses. Postal votes don't require it. You can also apply gratis for a Voter Authority Certificate
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 27, 2023 10:38:16 GMT
If we want to go down this route We HAVE gone down this route. The legislation was passed last year, and makes it a legal requirement at every single election from now on. The flip side of which, of course, is the cost/complexity/duration/incompetence/nest-feathering of yet another massive government IT project...
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Jan 27, 2023 10:44:24 GMT
Can the Tories recover? ... or are we heading for another 2010 type coalition... maybe with the the reform party... or OUT AND OUT LABOUR? Here's hoping. I'd rather they were in coalition with the Lib Dems, or relying on their support, but that seems unlikely at the moment.
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Post by bracknellboy on Jan 27, 2023 12:15:14 GMT
If we want to go down this route Yes I know. And ?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 27, 2023 12:23:56 GMT
Just sayin' that "If we want to..." has sailed.
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Jan 27, 2023 12:58:31 GMT
could be interesting round here,
Welsh Valleys, many of the older folk don't have a driving licence, never been abroad, wondering if the Welsh Bus pass which has a photo on counts, although it was very easy to get one, because that is the nearest to photo id many would have.
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" and all that. And 
