Post by spiral on May 26, 2015 8:51:52 GMT
Sorry this is a bit late. I Intended to post this info a couple of months back but forgot and a comment on another thread reminded me.
I did some calculations with the Altfi data when it first came out using RS and Zopa combined for the 5 yr market.
This showed:
1% repay in full after about 20 days
5% repay in full by month 7
8.9% repay in full by the end of the first year.
17.9% have repaid before 2.5 years
and 23.4% repay before full term.
Attached is a chart which shows (with the exception of the first 7 months) the decreasing probability that a loan will be repaid in any given month as it gets older.
The peak in the first month I suspect is probably due to those that either cancel their loan within the cooling off period or those that know they have a "bonus" due but just can't wait to spend it.
There is then a sharp drop for month 2 but with a gradual increase until month 7 so these I suspect are people that really only ever wanted a true short term loan and/or possibly when many of the defaults occur.
From month 7 onwards, the likelihood of it being repaid in any given month drops as each month passes.
I did some calculations with the Altfi data when it first came out using RS and Zopa combined for the 5 yr market.
This showed:
1% repay in full after about 20 days
5% repay in full by month 7
8.9% repay in full by the end of the first year.
17.9% have repaid before 2.5 years
and 23.4% repay before full term.
Attached is a chart which shows (with the exception of the first 7 months) the decreasing probability that a loan will be repaid in any given month as it gets older.
The peak in the first month I suspect is probably due to those that either cancel their loan within the cooling off period or those that know they have a "bonus" due but just can't wait to spend it.
There is then a sharp drop for month 2 but with a gradual increase until month 7 so these I suspect are people that really only ever wanted a true short term loan and/or possibly when many of the defaults occur.
From month 7 onwards, the likelihood of it being repaid in any given month drops as each month passes.
Attachments:
