locutus
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Post by locutus on Jan 9, 2016 16:27:39 GMT
Thanks for that. Glad to see it is not just my imagination with regards the 3 year market. It was my main market to lend into but now I can barely get anything lent there at all. My suspicion is that RS is lending monthly money to 3 year borrowers so doesn't really need the relatively higher rates of 3 year lenders.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 9, 2016 18:23:50 GMT
It'd be interesting to see the volatility on the same scale on all four graphs...
Monthly - peak volatility ~75%, 2015 volatility ~30%, typical volatility ~17.5%
1yr - peak volatility ~35%, 2015 volatility ~20%, typical volatility ~12.5%
3yr - peak volatility ~28%, 2015 volatility ~15%, typical volatility ~5%
5yr - peak volatility ~20%, 2015 volatility ~9%, typical volatility ~5%
So all markets seem to be more volatile than typical during 2015 (probably not unexpected in ballooning demand), 1yr the only market that didn't have the all-time peak during 2015, but still longer duration = lower volatility.
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Post by contangoandcash on Jan 13, 2016 1:19:12 GMT
Thanks for posting these. Clear trend upwards across the board in volatility.
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Post by westonkevRS on Jan 13, 2016 6:06:15 GMT
Thanks for that. Glad to see it is not just my imagination with regards the 3 year market. It was my main market to lend into but now I can barely get anything lent there at all. My suspicion is that RS is lending monthly money to 3 year borrowers so doesn't really need the relatively higher rates of 3 year lenders. Hi locutus , some monthly money does find its way into longer dated loans but a small percentage. The three year market has been impacted by borrower demand rather than money supply or market, so it's more a case of a market imbalance. Its a shame, because the 3-year product is popular with lenders, just not so much with borrowers (who like shorter loans, or the big 5-yrs....) If you download the loan book in a few months time, you'll probably be able to visualise this for yourself in the data - if you sum loans by month and term. Kevin.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Mar 29, 2016 16:49:11 GMT
This is my example of volatility today.
17:41 RS emailed me to say i'd lent out at 6.4%
17:45 logged in and the last matched rate was quoted as 6.1%
17:46 RS emailed wife to say she'd lent at 6.4%
Thats volatility for you!
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Mar 30, 2016 11:08:09 GMT
All the while Ratesetter have "borrower offers" at 6.1%, while lenders are offering 6.4%+ this will happen, even if matches are being made at 6.4%. This is because RS will be stating "rate to lend right now" is 6.1%, and any sucker investor who clicks on that will immediately be matched, and that will appear as the last matched rate for a while, even if it is only £20. I see that now some borrowers are (apparently) offering 6.2% and 6.3%, while the main lender pot is 6.4% +. Good time to speculate on 6.5% today and tomorrow, then down we go for the start of the month  . Seeing as nearly half of the loans are business loans rather than personal loans, I don't think that composite rate is especially high. |
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