Post by transo on Apr 28, 2014 22:53:12 GMT
I know many of us here think FC's bad debt record on A+ loans is worse than their estimated bad debt rate implies. However it appears FC may have changed their estimate.
Looking at the stats page tonight I noticed:
That estimated lifetime bad debt figure on A+ loans looks to be a huge jump. I last noticed it when I ran my stochastic projection of my returns in in early March, when the estimated lifetime bad debt of A+ loans was only 1.2%, having gradually crept up from 1% in November 2012. The other rates don't appear to have changed much. Interestingly the explanatory text states that the table shows that "for every £1000 of A+ loans we estimate that there will be about £30 of bad debts over the life of the loans", which is much higher than previous estimates but very approximate maths.
However further down the page the estimated annual bad debt rates haven't changed at all from their original values, still 0.6% for A+.
I can't believe that the estimated lifetime bad debt rate on A+ loans can almost triple without any impact on the annualised rate, despite the (well document on another thread) difficulties in working out how FC got from one to the other.
Meanwhile I'm upping my minimum bid rate on A+, again.
Looking at the stats page tonight I noticed:
| % | A+ | A | B | C | C- | Total |
| Current bad debt | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% |
| Estimated lifetime bad debt | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 10.6% | 4.8% |
That estimated lifetime bad debt figure on A+ loans looks to be a huge jump. I last noticed it when I ran my stochastic projection of my returns in in early March, when the estimated lifetime bad debt of A+ loans was only 1.2%, having gradually crept up from 1% in November 2012. The other rates don't appear to have changed much. Interestingly the explanatory text states that the table shows that "for every £1000 of A+ loans we estimate that there will be about £30 of bad debts over the life of the loans", which is much higher than previous estimates but very approximate maths.
However further down the page the estimated annual bad debt rates haven't changed at all from their original values, still 0.6% for A+.
I can't believe that the estimated lifetime bad debt rate on A+ loans can almost triple without any impact on the annualised rate, despite the (well document on another thread) difficulties in working out how FC got from one to the other.
Meanwhile I'm upping my minimum bid rate on A+, again.
