cwah
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Post by cwah on Dec 5, 2018 23:52:13 GMT
Why is it unwise? I think putting more than £10 in any unknown loan is unwise. But if the loan or investment is very good, putting more than 10% of your net worth in is fine Unless you have genuine inside information on a particular loan (like knowing the borrower personally), you must presume that you are NOT being given enough information by p2p platforms to correctly assess the risk. At best p2p investing is, IMO, little better than gambling on football or other sports, and is often akin to gambling on horses where rigged races are the norm not the exception.
Given the amount of effort I'm putting in to try to avoid some of the obvious disasters, I'm happy with a 15% of net wealth p2p pot, and a per loan allocation of 0.7% of p2p pot (0.1% of net wealth), together with a max of 3 loans with connected borrowers (i.e. 2% of p2p pot, 0.3% of net wealth).
After 5 years of self select secured lending, I have multiple loans that are pretty much a 100% capital loss at TC, AC, FS and MT (but not as yet L, although the infamous London Loan may turn out to be one such). Some of those I had a "lapse in concentration" and never should have participated in, but some still leave me bemused (but not unduly stressed) as to why my money has gone down the drain.
May i ask which of lendy, FS and MT loans are 100% loss? I invested in these platforms
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Post by mrclondon on Dec 6, 2018 0:36:52 GMT
May i ask which of lendy, FS and MT loans are 100% loss? I invested in these platforms MT - Birkenhead Tranche B 100% loss after disposal of secured asset ^ L - Welsh Castle - 60% loss after disposal of secured asset FS - Whitehaven - 95% loss after disposal of secured asset FS - Wimbledon - 100% loss, asset not worth enough to provide any recovery ^ FS - Wind turbine - 68% loss after disposal of secured asset FS - Neath supplemental - 100% loss, asset not worth enough to provide any recovery ^ FS - Knaresborough 2nd loan - 100% loss, asset not worth enough to provide any recovery ^ FS - Knaresborough 1st loan - proabably 70%+ loss once remaining asset recovery is complete None of which are likely to recover more than a few percent from claims on the PG's where there are claims on going. ^ denotes 2nd or 3rd ranking tranches. (Of those I only have exposure to FS Wind turbine and MT Birkenhead; most of my major losses are on TC and AC. And as I said no 100% losses on Lendy yet.)
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cwah
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Post by cwah on Dec 6, 2018 0:47:10 GMT
May i ask which of lendy, FS and MT loans are 100% loss? I invested in these platforms MT - Birkenhead Tranche B 100% loss after disposal of secured asset ^ L - Welsh Castle - 60% loss after disposal of secured asset FS - Whitehaven - 95% loss after disposal of secured asset FS - Wimbledon - 100% loss, asset not worth enough to provide any recovery ^ FS - Wind turbine - 68% loss after disposal of secured asset FS - Neath supplemental - 100% loss, asset not worth enough to provide any recovery ^ FS - Knaresborough 2nd loan - 100% loss, asset not worth enough to provide any recovery ^ FS - Knaresborough 1st loan - proabably 70%+ loss once remaining asset recovery is complete None of which are likely to recover more than a few percent from claims on the PG's where there are claims on going. ^ denotes 2nd or 3rd ranking tranches. (Of those I only have exposure to FS Wind turbine and MT Birkenhead; most of my major losses are on TC and AC. And as I said no 100% losses on Lendy yet.) Horrible! I have a big chunck of my net worth in lendy, fs and mt. None of these are my loans but we got the london loan in common (which i wouldn't expect 100% loss). Fingers crossed. Many of my lendy loans are over 1 or even 2 years in default...
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cwah
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Post by cwah on Dec 6, 2018 1:12:27 GMT
By the way, the 100% loss on wimbledon made me curious... So looking at the loan it seems that it was a THIRD charge loan on a GDV project of an absurd valuation of £5 millions.
I've no surprise that such a loan even in london lead to a 100% loss!
That's the perfect example of what I said previously. I wouldn't put more than a tenner in such loan!
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boundah
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Post by boundah on Dec 6, 2018 9:26:26 GMT
What's 0.1% NAV? Net Asset Value? You mean no more than 0.1% of your net worth? So if you have £100k net worth, you can't invest more than £100? Many would agree that putting more than 10% of your net worth into P2P lending would be unwise. And the general consensus is that putting more than 1% of your P2P cash into any single loan is probably also unwise. So "do the math" It's interesting to see different people's approaches to P2P risk. My own strategy has evolved since I started in P2P 3 years ago: now I invest only in first-charge loans where I have reasonable confidence in the valuation (although I'm sure that's worth a thread of its own), my own DD (helped by this forum) and nothing exotic (castles or ugly Thamesside chalets). A lowish LT'V', a borrower with a decent track-record and a PG are bonuses. I have more than 1% of my P2P cash in any one loan, on the basis that 4x 100% losses across 20 equal-size 'good' loans cost less than 30x 100% losses across 100 'bad' loans. But on your general point: I agree that diversification across asset classes and P2P loans is wise.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Dec 6, 2018 9:47:26 GMT
It's interesting to see different people's approaches to P2P risk. My own strategy has evolved since I started in P2P 3 years ago: now I invest only in first-charge loans where I have reasonable confidence in the valuation (although I'm sure that's worth a thread of its own), my own DD (helped by this forum) and nothing exotic (castles or ugly Thamesside chalets). A lowish LT'V', a borrower with a decent track-record and a PG are bonuses. I have more than 1% of my P2P cash in any one loan, on the basis that 4x 100% losses across 20 equal-size 'good' loans cost less than 30x 100% losses across 100 'bad' loans. But on your general point: I agree that diversification across asset classes and P2P loans is wise. I too opt to invest more than 1% on occasions, when the risk appears significantly lower than the "P2P norm". A memorable example was the Bolton first-charge loan on COL ....
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withnell
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Post by withnell on Jan 9, 2019 16:43:41 GMT
MoneyThing - I know your last update reminded investors to not expect a monthly update on defaulted loans BUT... Given that the reason for putting the loan into default was around the risk of the sale to TfL not progressing, and the need for completion "within the next few weeks", it would seem reasonable that an update might be available? Even if just along the lines that the sales is still progressing under the previously agreed terms, but hasn't yet exchanged. Thanks in advance!
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ilmoro
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'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Jan 10, 2019 11:34:10 GMT
Update on this one - disturbing development, somebody been paying attention to events elsewhere?
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keystone
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Post by keystone on Jan 10, 2019 11:39:58 GMT
Unbelievable!
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amwinv
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Post by amwinv on Jan 10, 2019 11:47:16 GMT
Time for 18% interest?
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Post by bracknellboy on Jan 10, 2019 11:56:23 GMT
when was this put into default by MT ? I can't figure it out from the updates.
This is my biggest holding in MT. I recall looking at this in my general scale back of p2p and deciding to hang onto it.
EDIT: the defaulted loan has a 03/12/18 start date, so answers the first part. Doesn't answer why I didn't decide to scale back (probably because the TFL sale looked to be imminent).
b*******s
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Post by spareafewcoppersguv on Jan 10, 2019 12:23:39 GMT
P2P seems to be going down the pan. If I could exit all property P2P loans I would breathe a big sigh of relief!!
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star dust
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Post by star dust on Jan 10, 2019 12:40:59 GMT
P2P seems to be going down the pan. If I could exit all property P2P loans I would breathe a big sigh of relief!! It took me the best part of a year to sell out of all MT's property loans, but I've got no regrets. when was this put into default by MT ? I can't figure it out from the updates. This is my biggest holding in MT. I recall looking at this in my general scale back of p2p and deciding to hang onto it. EDIT: the defaulted loan has a 03/12/18 start date, so answers the first part. Doesn't answer why I didn't decide to scale back (probably because the TFL sale looked to be imminent). b*******s
It was mine too, despite selling out of all the others (property ones) I hung onto it, however, on the first contra-indication of non-performance I sold out of the lot while I could. As I neared the bottom of the sales Q I contemplated cancelling and wished I hadn't put the whole lot up in one lump - I watched closely to see whether I could salvage a bit through a partial sale, but luckily (in hindsight) it all went in one go.
My new P2P mantra has been sell out if you can at the first sign of any contra-indications it doesn't matter how solid you think the loan is - maybe you call it wrong, but there are always other loans out there. The rates - even the occasionally high defaulted ones - aren't high enough for the risk in my view. Had I adopted this earlier I wouldn't have quite so much in MT defaults, although apart from the no-warning Lytham all others had at least been scaled back.
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keystone
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Post by keystone on Jan 10, 2019 12:44:42 GMT
It's going to be the death knell for P2P if investments by investors are going to be tied up for years in court proceedings with the risk of losing substantial amounts of capital. Taking on risk for lending is one thing, but if borrowers think they can waste time and money without consequences they need to be taught an expensive lesson. Investors will want a substantial premium for investments or the borrowers will find that they wont receive funds at the current rates.
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pi
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Post by pi on Jan 10, 2019 14:06:57 GMT
Completely agree with the sentiment. The borrowers should be taken to cleaners and make an example out of. Otherwise we would see more LY London Loans and MT Wandsworths.
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