hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Nov 12, 2021 12:18:48 GMT
Sorry you all got stuck in this. I took my money and ran when offered. It was around a 25% haircut (about 18k) but in hindsight it was the right decision. It was obvious to me that anything property moose were even loosely involved in would end up in disaster.
Best of luck to you all, hope you see most of your money back. Maybe rising property prices will have helped lift the pathetic investments PM and their “experts” made.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Nov 12, 2021 12:15:34 GMT
Investing for dividends is pointless. Total return is all that matters. It’s amusing how obsessed some people are about dividends. Total waste of time and effort.
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hazellend
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Nov 11, 2021 20:49:38 GMT
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Post by hazellend on Nov 11, 2021 20:49:38 GMT
At face value those are poor risk adjusted returns. As long as you realise you are gambling rather than investing I guess it’s okay. Gambling? Mmm.. ok... then if they are poor risk adjusted returns, where would you recommend i invest that is less risk averse, but better returns. Investing is different from speculating. I recommend global equities with a very long term view > 20 years.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Nov 11, 2021 16:14:34 GMT
P2P is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. Looks safe, but is fatally dangerous. In my opinion, long term the global stock market gives much better risk adjusted returns. I think a diversified portfolio at the safer end of the P2P spectrum can give decent stable returns. I think I can achieve roughly equal long term returns from P2P and global share trackers. I'm even beginning to think that my P2P portfolio will give higher returns. However, the amount of work needed for the P2P portfolio massively dwarfs that required for the global share trackers. A mix of both is a reasonable proposition, with safer P2P options replacing bonds in traditional mixes. “Safer P2P”could possibly replace some of the equitiy in traditional mixes but not bonds (which usually refers to investment grade/gov bonds). P2P is very high risk, no matter how you look at it. Also, as you say, it takes a lot of time and effort.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Nov 11, 2021 13:45:49 GMT
Having become increasingly nervous about inflation with maybe low returns from equities and possibly overdue for a large correction, I have been looking for something less likely to lose value. When the market went down at the end of the century it took until 2003 before it started up again. Fortunately my small private pension fund was invested in property so I did not suffer a low value when I took the pension in 2003. The pension income is linked to the All Share Index and has turned out well so far.
I have now liquidated some ETF investments in ISAs and Bought into 2 REITs,
It seems to me that these should both be fairly inflation proof and are invested in property which will benefit from everyone having to eat and growing on line business. They have both gone down recently, presumably because of the driver shortage, but seem to be going up again now.
I used the ISAs because the dividends have a 20% tax reduction which is refundable in an ISA.
What do you think?
Shares in terms of FTSE100 are about where they were 22 years ago. Yes youve got the dividends and yes you may be a Fundsmith investor - but then again no. Corporate nad government bonds have exceeded equity returns over that period but like equity look overvalued. P2P looks a relatively safe option in a relatively unsafe world. Especially the ikes of loanpad and the less risky unbolted offerings... P2P is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. Looks safe, but is fatally dangerous. In my opinion, long term the global stock market gives much better risk adjusted returns.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Nov 8, 2021 22:16:15 GMT
been there for almost 2 years now trading stocks and crypto.... yr 1 +18%.... yr2 to date +14%... anyone else using it? At face value those are poor risk adjusted returns. As long as you realise you are gambling rather than investing I guess it’s okay.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Nov 3, 2021 18:09:27 GMT
Almost 100% decided to quit HL due to ever escalating charges. I've stayed faithful for many years as I appreciate the hands on facility to buy shares. Any advice on somewhere similar but less expensive? If you switch to holdings that aren’t funds then HL are dirt cheap
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Oct 14, 2021 16:21:21 GMT
Tesla ended up surprisingly well. I suppose its good luck to be on up trends. However I didn't realise how much leveraged I was and sold few Baba and Zoom puts. Both of them had their share price halved, which multiplied the losses. I didn't realise that selling a 400 put for zoom was to put on the line $40,000 to lose. I obviously got assigned and my margin account is at its limit as I don't have the cash. So borrowing the money elsewhere to pay back the margin interest and trying to avoid the margin call. Big mistake on my side. I should have put only in tesla.... You can lead a horse to the water… Cwah, you were warned, you clearly don’t know what you are doing, please stop now. Invest for the long term, stop gambling!
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Oct 11, 2021 16:01:40 GMT
I totally agree. Talk is cheap. Facts are what count. ASMX is an obsession for some at Ablrate, to the extent that they are willing to sacrifice Ablrate itself for it - just think if even 25% of the time, energy and expense on ASMX had been spent on getting quality loans in for Ablrate and/or to ensure that loans paid lenders on time which they very often don't do - but even ASMX itself falls very short of the hype: the facts of the matter are: - the majority of Ablrate loans are NOT liquid - most Ablrate loans are NOT tradeable on ASMX - not a single other P2P platform's loans are available to either buy or sell on ASMX despite it being pumped up for over a year Sorry for not drinking the Kool-aid and for exclaiming the Emperor has no clothes. I know it doesn't make it popular at Ablrate Towers. As I've said previously, buying any of the ablrate's loans at those silly premiums is market frenzy. A lot of people buy excess chunks of new loans and try to sell them at a premium for extra return which adds to the frenzy. These loans have excellent returns already for a very good reason, risk.
For me, liquidity is more important than trading and earning extra return at someone else's expense. The benchmark for me is being able to shift a loan within a few hours at par for 0.5% fee (or free).
In p2p liquidity is being able to shift a loan instantly at whatever haircut is required. For example if you want to sell very quickly 50k worth of loans you may have to knock 10 - 30% off. I liked the old secondary market and have never really gotten into ASMX, although I’m confident I could shift my loans at a discount if required.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Oct 9, 2021 12:41:06 GMT
Unfortunately past performance has been shown to have zero predictive value of future performance, actually it seems to be inversely correlated. This sentence is contradictory. If there is a correlation there is a level of predictability. Good point. I think the evidence shows that lady returns are inversely correlated with future returns
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Oct 9, 2021 11:35:36 GMT
Unfortunately past performance has been shown to have zero predictive value of future performance, actually it seems to be inversely correlated. Past performance of what, could you be any more vague ? You're missing the point, if all the stock markets tank over the next 5 years, Vanguard funds are guaranteed by their very nature to tank. I 'll side with a company who has been in the business for 113 years.
Over any time frame really. I think the most famous one is an American fund that massively outperformed for more than 10 years then ended up underperforming ever since over anytime frame beyond that. They gave up all their gains and more. Again the evidence shows that active funds tend to underperform in downturns as well as upturns. I’m not saying ballie Gifford aren’t good funds.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Oct 9, 2021 10:26:03 GMT
That depends on the time frame. Get the timing wrong and it can take years to recover your losses. In the long run though you are correct, but you know what Keynes said about the long run.
I'm assuming we're talking about passive index funds for this Vanguard ISA, what are the fund charges, 0.2% pa ? For an extra 0.4% pa, you can buy a knowledgeable Baillie Gifford active Fund manager or multiple managers and a huge selection of funds and investment trusts covering every sector and geographical area. Just saying, compare the last 5 years performance records.
Unfortunately past performance has been shown to have zero predictive value of future performance, actually it seems to be inversely correlated.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Oct 9, 2021 10:24:39 GMT
Actually, dumping in all your money at once is statistically likely to outperform dripping it in 2/3 of the time, so it’s not as idiotic as it you think. It can feel scary to the uninitiated though. That depends on the time frame. Get the timing wrong and it can take years to recover your losses. In the long run though you are correct, but you know what Keynes said about the long run. True, but money shouldn’t really be invested in equities unless you have an absolute minimum time frame of 10 years
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Oct 9, 2021 7:35:25 GMT
I recently opened a Vanguard S&S ISA with the intention of transferring £10k from my long-running Cash ISA. I was surprised to find that Vanguard requires the source ISA to be transferred in its entirety. Only an idiot would dump 10 years worth of accumulated cash savings on the stock market all at once. Also, it took 2 months to tell me I can't do what I want to do. One solution might be to open a Cash ISA with someone who will accept the £10k then transfer that to Vanguard, but it's a bit of a faff and not very fair on the third party provider I'm abusing. I checked the T&Cs, but it's not exactly flashing warnings at you. Actually, dumping in all your money at once is statistically likely to outperform dripping it in 2/3 of the time, so it’s not as idiotic as it you think. It can feel scary to the uninitiated though.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Oct 7, 2021 21:38:55 GMT
And yet people are still piling money into P2P Isn't that like saying "my house fell down, so I'm not buying another house"? There's good and bad everywhere. The skill is in determining which is which, or perhaps it's just luck! But P2P is just too high a risk. Maybe for small amounts of money spread around its fine (if you can be bothered with the time required)
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