scc
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Post by scc on Mar 18, 2020 4:10:34 GMT
The world is engulfed with covid-19. Amazing how quickly this has spread. Does anyone believe the conspiracy theories? That this was a chinese bio weapon that got released by accident? It's possible, even plausible. But assuming it were true, how does it change your personal response? Not all information or speculation is of equal value.
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scc
Member of DD Central
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Likes: 163
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Post by scc on Mar 17, 2020 8:00:50 GMT
Good luck!
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scc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 214
Likes: 163
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Post by scc on Mar 17, 2020 7:48:27 GMT
Yes, I am. I don't want to be. Please fault my logic. Please. I desperately want you to.
A few reasons to be more optimistic: - Current government estimates are for 12 weeks of material disruption. That’s not long enough to create a sustained decrease in productive capacity of the economy. People are therefore not laid off and few businesses are forced to close even if there is some disruption in the short term. - Short term disruption to businesses is however likely to be smoothed by fiscal measures announced by the government (with potentially more to come) and monetary policy (an increase in the Bank of England’s lending facility) - Economists/analysts are expecting a hard bounce when the short term pain is over. This will make up for much of lost business earnings and all borrowers to meet repayment obligations in the longer term. - A good portion of RateSetter’s loan book is secured so a default does not always result in a material loss. - The provision fund is still able to cover 250% of expected losses. I wish I could feel as optimistic. It won't be anything like 12 weeks especially if you consider the virus rolling across the world and possible second waves. Most of the affected businesses I know of could just about manage the next payroll under current conditions. It's clear to me that the Govt has given almost no thought (yet) to how the ordinary person in the street will make mortgage payments, pay off credit card, even buy food. And the average person in the street has almost no buffer. I can see many false dawns as companies attempt to return to business as usual only for them to be exposed to another set of cases/wave and close down again. Restarting the global economy is going to be like restarting a country's electricity supply when all of the power stations have gone down.
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 14, 2020 20:23:52 GMT
Just looked at the lender queue which is almost non-existent. Two weeks ago I decided to sell out my RS holdings completely. Request in the morning, money in my holding account by the afternoon. That is the extent of the deterioration to today. It’s known as a liquidity run. The longer it gets the more people try to sell out and the less people put in. Same here, dorset. I got everything out bar about £150 of under a tenner loans without any problems.
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 13, 2020 13:43:09 GMT
How best to remain in the 20% who don't get it, if youre over 12 Private self piloted jet to an undisclosed self contained bunker with 2 years of food and bog roll.
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 13, 2020 10:15:26 GMT
From Guardian19 cases in Kensington and Chelsea, highest in any London boroughs and any counties in England. Who would have thought that? Lots of rich international travellers and their entourages I'd guess. It'll be interesting to see if the rich/celeb/politician jetset turn out to be disproportionately affected. I suspect they already are, actually. Out of all of the billions of people who could be infected by now, the normal odds must be pretty low of A list actors/leaders of governments being infected by random chance. And yet, that's what we're seeing.
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 13, 2020 4:56:25 GMT
She is awesome. A rare politician that earns their keep.
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scc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 214
Likes: 163
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Post by scc on Mar 11, 2020 2:13:56 GMT
If you don't have a high temperature and a cough it's not covid! I wondered about that but a high temperature is not consistent with mild or very mild symptoms which is what most people are supposed to expect. Like others above, I've had slightly unusual symptoms (for me at least). A stubborn very mild fever of 37.1 and corresponding low level permanent headache being the main symptoms but fatigue being another. What makes me think it unlikely that we have or have had C19 is that the UK has tested a fairly large sample and the vast majority come back negative so why should I be any different? Depends what they are testing for. Presence of the virus? It might have cleared many people's bodies already. Presence of antibodies? I agree - these other symptoms are likely something else. I had a lurgy similar to what others are reporting in early Dec which in retrospect sounds very similar. Very slightly under the weather for about a week, walloped by a high fever/headaches for four days (confined to bed), combined with a dry cough. Small amounts of breathlessness. Periods of recurring malaise for over a month afterwards. Also highly contagious - at one point, everyone in a particular evening class I go to was wiped out for the same week and only one person struggled in.
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 9, 2020 9:55:21 GMT
Look lawyers earn £80/hour. Meter readers earn £10 an hour. If a solicitor needs to read your meter then either he is a terrible lawyer or it's a scam. Meter readers get paid the same as teaching assistants it seems. very comparable trades. The main difficulty is getting the elderly relative to respect me enough to believe that there is a problem. Bluntly, if that's an issue - I'd leave them to it. You've said your piece, offered help/advice and they are adults. Sometimes people have to make the mistake in order to learn from it. Difficult though. I have to regularly walk my elderly relatives back from posting all kinds of on Facebook that would likely get them into legal hot water if they went through with it.
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 8, 2020 12:28:33 GMT
Sounds like a con to me.
Why would he get compensation for a firm that's gone into administration? In such an instance, the only thing he needs to worry about is whether the guarantee is still valid (good chance it was with a third party, so likely yes). How did the company that called him get his contact details?
Basically, my rule of thumb is if someone rings me up offering me free money - 99% of the time, it's a scam of somekind and will end up me costing me at the very least my time if not money as well. Yes, I might miss out on the 1% but I can live with that.
I hate firms that prey on the elderly and vulnerable like this.
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 6, 2020 6:22:28 GMT
Why is everyone panicking so much, I looked up the flu virus and that takes about 400,000 lives a year world wide, why don't we all panic about that every year? I know this corona virus is new and may have unexpected consequences but really! I have some sympathy with your pov - and I'm fully aware of all of the stats and their meaning. Yes, this wouldn't be a pleasant death and it would feel untimely but there are worse ways to go. But realistically, beyond taking some simple precautions financially and hygiene wise, there is little the average person can do to avoid it so why worry? I suspect it is because we are generally in denial that we will get sick/old and die one day - and that most of our day to day concerns are really just a convenient shared fiction that is fairly meaningless when it comes down do it. For example, I've heard people worrying for their 90+ year old relatives with multiple diseases. It's understandable, but is it completely unexpected that they will die eventually?
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scc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 214
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RateSetter (RS)
PF
Mar 4, 2020 22:50:49 GMT
Post by scc on Mar 4, 2020 22:50:49 GMT
The PF in terms of available cash is very low and will soon vanish when defaults created by Covid-19 hit home over the next few weeks/months. Cannot see RS avoiding a lock in of lenders plus a haircut. Been with RS since the beginning and made great returns however decided to cash out all of my lending last Friday. Made the request in the morning Friday, money available by the afternoon and back in my bank account this Monday. Very smooth and efficient. Going to stay pretty liquid until this all blows over or not especially as Mrs Dorset and myself are in the high risk age band. If it turns into a V shape recovery then we are well positioned to take advantage. Mirrors my views and experience. Cashed out over the last few days. About 150 quid left in sub £10 loans.
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scc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 214
Likes: 163
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Post by scc on Feb 27, 2020 17:19:21 GMT
I believe lifespan challenged is the politically correct term.
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scc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 214
Likes: 163
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Post by scc on Feb 24, 2020 15:57:06 GMT
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scc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 214
Likes: 163
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Post by scc on Feb 24, 2020 14:09:12 GMT
I agree with both @wallstreet and others with differing views.
For me, the adjustments are coming in my P2P holdings (although they are a tiny % of my overall wealth). If there's a prolonged economic impact as a result of the virus, it's hard to imagine all of the existing P2P providers and borrowers coming through without any problems. S&S etc in my pension are being left untouched and I'll continue to drip feed my salary into it.
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