|
Post by dan1 on Feb 14, 2021 12:41:54 GMT
adrianc r00lish67I agree with you both on the uncertainties being pretty huge this far out from an election. I do still regard Starmer as effectively unelectable vs Johnson in pretty much any situation. I do reflect that on the pandemic we're pretty much top of the league tables for major economies when it comes to death rates and bottom (or not far off) on economic impact, and that's ignoring brexit, and yet the Tories are ahead in the polls (I think?). And I think we're agreed that personal morality plays little part. We're increasingly looking at the style over substance and personality over party when it comes to voting at general elections. That's not to say Starmer can't beat the likes of Gove or Raab (nor Sunak but I'm more on the fence in this face-off). I lost interest as soon as the last election was called because I saw a 50+ majority as a foregone conclusion. Primarily because Corbyn was unelectable in much the same way as Kinnock, John Smith, and Gordon Brown were. Likewise, Hague and Howard was unelectable against Blair. The unelectable argument is simplistic but a powerful predictor. I'm not sure what's going on with Labour at the moment wrt brexit stance etc but I guess they're still tearing themselves apart. Can Starmer reform the party (bring it more to the centre?) to bring it within reach at the next election? I'm not so sure...
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Feb 14, 2021 11:30:23 GMT
I don't think this is borne out by the facts
- The infection rate took a significnt upward trend during the first week of December
- By Christmas day the rate was skyrocketing upwards
- It takes 7 - 10 days from becoming infected to testing positive
- 7 - 10 days after Christmas day the infection rate was flattening off, and begining to fall shortly thereafter.
If you just look at the stastics, you could easily argue that it was allowing people to mix on Christmas day that caused the rates to start coming down (although more likely caused by the imposition of tier 4 restrictions in the worst affected areas) Minor detail... That's not actually true. The 3day rolling average of daily new cases in the UK peaked on 8th January at 60k, with a one-day high of 68k on 8th. A week after Xmas, around New Year's, they were around 55k. At Xmas, it had only been 35k. We're currently down to about 14k, same as early December. The week or so around New Year's had the steepest increase in active cases, from 1.1m at Xmas, to 1.25m around New Year's, then a sharp climb up to 1.67m by the 12th, flattening slightly to a high of 2m around the start of Feb. It's now down to 1.8m. www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/Don't let facts get in the way of a good story/narrative
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Feb 14, 2021 11:12:21 GMT
Meanwhile, the press that would otherwise be highlighting these serious issues in a more prominent way are not, because of any mix of: 1) The pandemic taking precedence. 2) US politics taking precedence. 3) Fear of Government reprisal of public service broadcasters. 4) Brexit fatigue. 5) Some people really still liking Brexit, so newspapers prefer to call this issue 'teething' or 'remoaning'. 6) It not involving really sexy pictures of huge lorry queues, that can't quite be replaced by people looking really angry at a computer Nick Cohen, on a similar theme to the above: "No one should be able to deny that Britain is in an economic and political crisis brought on by Brexit. Yet the government won’t talk about it. The opposition dare not mention it. The rightwing press won’t cover it. And broadcasters fear they will be damned as biased if they admit it. Rather than face reality, we live in an imaginary Britain, a land of make-believe, where the political class act out parts as if they are on a film set."It is a truly bizarre state of affairs. In almost any other circumstances this couldn't happen, yet everyone now has a reason not to want to talk about it. Even amongst us, even me as I write this very post, feel reticent to bother because it only (typically) sets off negative vibes - and in any case, it ain't gonna change anything. I certainly am not in the mood to point-score. I do tend to agree with the author. Though I can understand their reticence, it is something of a dereliction of duty that Labour + co are tactically ignoring the consequences. edit: Honestly, can't even tell you how close I was to binning this post I hate to break this to you but it's only gonna get worse As the economic reality of our response to the pandemic starts to bite I expect a further lurch to the right. It's no coincidence that the new venture GB News is right leaning (putting it politely) as opposed to left leaning (a CNN style channel with the balls to call a lie a lie). The call of nationalism has rarely been more powerful in this country. From where we stand at present I put the probability of a Labour majority at the next election at 0%, and perhaps an optimistic 5% for a hung parliament. We're in this for the long haul.
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Feb 14, 2021 10:59:10 GMT
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Feb 13, 2021 14:52:32 GMT
Having picked up a £125 reward middle last year it's great its back according to Your Money. I'll have to look into it for Mrs Aju as i already have and am investing monthly to the regsaver - not sure of the rates now but in my case I moved over back in Sept 2020 when it was 2.75% rate with of max £250 per month. I think it's 1% now so not so good but it needs to be checked. The £125 is good though. I haven't looked in detail yet but last time the 2 DD's or 2 S/o's only had to be transferred in and i rememebr they said in an online conversation i didn;t have to keep them running. I stayed with it but if Mrs Aju can just pickup the 125 and then let it lapse it may be worth a go. There are other terms like £1750 month i/c or £10500 every 6 months but I checked last time and you can turn a few reciprocal £500 or £250 back and forth between another account as long as the overall amount is £1750 or more then its fine. (I paid 1 1750 and made that up to 10500 and moved the money out so I have to decided what to do for the final 6 months.) The links gives some details and there was a long thread on MSE last time and I don't doubt there will be a large number of the get in and get out brigade too. Many last time just got in got the £125 and moved out again I seem to remember but I stayed for the 2.75% regsaver at the time. Anyway hope this helps anyone who is interested in free money - sort of. MSE forum link to new deal
www.hsbc.co.uk/current-accounts/products/ best option last time was the advance as others are more costly but checkit carefully it fits your needs. It is 1% on all three. I still have 2.75% running on M&S, but didn't renew my HSBC and First Direct. 1% reg saver doesn't compete with my Al Rayan instant access (currently 1.15%, reducing to 1.02% from 22nd feb). £125 is a great offer, but as with most offers like this I'm not qualified. The only bank I can claim to be a new customer is Co-op (I haven't had an account with them since 1994). It's good to see some signs of competition for customers at this extreme low rate environment though. There's Coventry issue 4 @1.3% on offer atm, works out as 1.16% if drip-fed from 1%. £500 monthly allowance - I'm going to open it tomorrow whilst it is still there. Just been replaced with Issue 5 @ 1.05%... www.coventrybuildingsociety.co.uk/consumer/savings-accounts/Regular-Saver.html
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Feb 13, 2021 14:10:20 GMT
I was trying to find the figures for the UK or England that show the current proportions of the "Kent" variant vs the old variant. I know it's "set to sweep the world"
Anyone have a link?
I'm wondering how close we'd be to an "end" of the current wave if it wasn't for this new UK variant.
We'd certainly be a lot lower down the infection and death rate tables. Or a lot higher up in both the infection and death rates. The point is we'll never know.
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Feb 13, 2021 13:38:52 GMT
Focussing on the light coloured bars alone, doesn't that suggest the 2nd wave peaked in Nov 5th (and would now be over, as Ton ⓉⓞⓃ suggests), while the Kent variant caused a 3rd wave, peaking on Dec 31st, and due to die away in a couple of weeks time? I'm sure that's over-simplistic and someone will put me straight! There's no counterfactual so it's all a mute, somewhat nugatory, point. The 2nd wave peaking at week commencing Nov 5th is consistent with lockdown 2. But, lockdown 2 was relaxed early December and we could of reasonably expected cases to rise again (3rd wave) especially with all the Christmas mixing (not just Christmas Day). There are a range of possibilities if the Kent variant hadn't been cultured. Perhaps the old D614G variant would have remained dominant and reacted to restrictions as in the previous few months. Or maybe a new more transmissible but far less deadly variant would have become dominant. Or a new more transmissible, deadly and vaccine escape variant such as the P.1 variant could have mutated independently. It's all hypothetical but viruses only mutate when they're allowed to replicate. It's no coincidence we're talking of UK, South African and Brazilian variants.
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Feb 13, 2021 12:33:52 GMT
I was trying to find the figures for the UK or England that show the current proportions of the "Kent" variant vs the old variant. I know it's "set to sweep the world"
Anyone have a link? I'm wondering how close we'd be to an "end" of the current wave if it wasn't for this new UK variant.
From here (published today, 95.9% of cases)... Edit: as to your question, I guess that's pretty much impossible to say with there being no counter-factual.
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Feb 11, 2021 21:46:36 GMT
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Feb 11, 2021 20:50:26 GMT
Let's hope they know about the Unbolted borrower and their associates.
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Feb 11, 2021 20:40:23 GMT
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Feb 11, 2021 16:55:38 GMT
My guess is that once vaccine passports are rolled out countries will be falling over themselves to allow travellers quarantine free access to spend their cash. A well earned bonus for NHS staff, carers, and to a lesser extent the vulnerable and the elderly. From an economic point of view it may be better to delay vaccine passports to keep Brits and their money at home.
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Feb 11, 2021 16:44:49 GMT
We see this statement a lot, but what I haven't got my head around is why "less effective in preventing mild and moderate symptoms" is a problem. Provided it's effective at preventing serious symptoms and death, surely it's worth using? Are mild and moderate symptoms any cause for alarm? Yes I completely agree with that. BUT and its a huge BUT, is it effective at preventing serious symptoms of the S.African variant? The answer is I though we don't know because they haven't done trials. And why the heck not ? But if it is of no use for preventing the acquisition of Covid among people in their 30s and 40s which I thought the trial seems to suggest, it surely is not looking great for its prospects at recuding serious illness? Or maybe it is but it is just pure guesswork isn't it and that is why we have these trials. I'm slightly placated by the fact that in the UK we have other dominate strains and I'm led to believe that it would take time for a new S.African or other variant of concern to muscle its way in and become the dominate strain here. Is that true? At least it might give us enough time to prepare a new vaccine by the autumn. I will certainly be accepting AZ vaccine when its my turn but it will be the icing on the cake to get the Pfizer which I think looks more promising generally (higher efficacy) and appears to do significantly better among the new variants. On a pedantic note, I'm not sure the UK will be "buying back" because the one million AZD1222 vaccines delivered to SA were produced by the Serum Institute of India (correct me if I'm wrong). It makes sense for SA to sell on the doses to the highest bidder and instead spend the money on and vaccinate with J&J single dose vaccine (50% odd efficacy or 60% if you look at non-HIV cases). As to your question in bold above.... I guess that depends on the relative transmissibility, pre-existing immunity (from prior infection and vaccination) and initial prevalence of the variants. There's a lot of unknowns or at least relatively poor confidence in our knowledge of all of those factors. It will also depend on when restrictions are relaxed/removed.
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Feb 11, 2021 14:18:41 GMT
Look, you miss the point, this is not about tit for tat of "he said this, she said that" kind of, well, quite frankly . It's about how the UK-EU relationship proceeds from here. How do we resolve our differences because with your attitude we're heading into decades long period of trade disputes being referred for arbitration and that will kill UK-EU trade. A little less of nationalist tub thumping so prevalent in The Telegraph, Mail, Express and bit more reconciliation. Blaming the EU for every downside will get you knowhere except further division in UK society - perhaps that's what you want, I don't know. That won't happen. The EU will not cut off their nose to spite their face. Like you, I'd like to see an adult relationship, with respect on both sides. With players like Macron involved, that may take a while though... Kill was the wrong word, I should have said damage, harm, reduce or similar. The point being (and I guess we can both agree) that putting up barriers will harm both UK and EU, there are no overall winners. My view of brexit has always been that to have greater control over our borders, laws etc we will have to pay an economic price, as will the EU. In such a large change to our trading relationship there will inevitably be winners and losers on both sides of The Channel but in aggregate the UK and EU will both be poorer than we otherwise would have been. That's not to say there will not be new opportunities to exploit. But Macron is fighting a nationalist threat in Le Pen. Merkel will be replaced later this year as Chancellor. How will these change the dynamic that faces the UK over the coming years? Macron will shift further to the right and that's probably not good for UK-Fr relations, and if he loses in 2022 then expect a further degradation in relations.
|
|
|
Post by dan1 on Feb 11, 2021 13:16:09 GMT
The EU has stopped playing nicely!?!?! The lack of self-awareness is just astonishing. After numerous threats by the UK including 'perfidious Albion on speed' to sabotage the EU from within, breaking international law over NI, using gunships against foreign fishermen, and god knows how many others... ... is it REALLY a surprise that our trading partners don't really think very highly of us?? Merely our responses to EU threats to delay or frustrate Brexit. The difference is, we never carried them out. They DID invoke article 16 on a whim, yet some can just airbrush it out! Navy guarding your territorial waters is perfectly standard. Iceland rightly did the same. Quite frankly who cares about petty parochial disputes? What people want to know is how are these issues going to be resolved to save peoples jobs and livelihoods? Ideology doesn't pay the bills, put food on the table, drive economic growth to be able to improve the quality of life, etc.
|
|