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Post by coolrunning on Jun 29, 2020 9:06:38 GMT
... If I'm getting too strident, please advise Not at all.
Please continue!
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Post by coolrunning on Jun 15, 2020 6:35:32 GMT
Just stumbled across this post. I buy solely from the 2nd market and have been struggling lately with what I thought was just rogue data (a common problem over the years), but all my analysis of the downloaded data set tells me that Bondora have not written a new loan in Finland since the 23rd March and Spain since the 24th March. I can find no announcement anywhere, but the observation about the servicing of payouts suggests a tightening of the cash belt around those dates in March. Of course, it may all be about the Pandemic, but if I have just got it wrong regarding the Finland/Spain loans, please enlighten me. I would expect Bondora to take the pandemic seriously. It has to effect loan repayments and hence new loans.
Does anyone have any figures?
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Post by coolrunning on May 4, 2020 6:10:33 GMT
Any progress on a rerun for April?
Thanks
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Post by coolrunning on Apr 13, 2020 6:03:29 GMT
It will be interesting/worrying to see what the effect of the virus lock-down will be on defaults
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Post by coolrunning on Jan 6, 2020 16:52:45 GMT
I use these forecast values in the cashflow view and they work well (that is forecast matches actual very good over past years) for my mainly Estonian portfolio
Principal from current and overdue loans 97% Principal from loans in default 54% Interest from current and overdue loans 82% Interest from loans in default 6%
54% for defaulted loans?
Has the 2nd market got the valuation so wrong?
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Post by coolrunning on Jan 6, 2020 11:12:24 GMT
I am trying to compute what my actual portfolio return is. I should set my expected recovery on defaulted loans to 0 no ? That's the way they should be computed people returns no ? A simple rule, I suggest a valuation of 20%. This seems to be the value on the 2nd market.
Being more precise, if it is a write-off (death, no money, criminal proceedings etc) then 0%.
Finnish and Spanish, a bit lower : 18% Estonian maybe 22%
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Post by coolrunning on Nov 12, 2019 7:27:29 GMT
I started in 2014. I did well at first (~10% annual return).
Then I did something stupid. I invested in 2017 and the money went to Spain and Finland .
This year I've been rolling my interest back into secondary market loans. I think that shows promise. But I'm still making a monthly loss from the 2017 loan book.
You were lucky.
You did not invest in 2015 and 2016 !
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Post by coolrunning on Oct 21, 2019 7:15:24 GMT
Looking at the hordes of content marketers, referral link spammers and the tens of millions being poured into Go & Grow product with the hopes of earning a 6.75% return, I decided to look at Bondora's figures again after a while. The results are not providing any confidence.
Based on Bondora's own optimistic return calculation, the returns have been lower than the advertised 6.75% for loans issued in: - 2014
- 2015
- 2016
- and soon we can add 2017 to the list
To put this into perspective, that's more than 100 mil € worth of loans over the years. Out of which many segments have been offering a negative return. In other words, getting a lower return than the advertised 6.75% is not only possible, but Bondora has a great track record of failing to achieve that return mark historically. Whenever you're talking or reading about Bondora's track record, keep that in mind.
Note also that these are for the whole portfolio (including great Estonian loans). Currently more than half of G&G is in Finnish (mostly F rating) loans. All figures come from Bondora's blog (and thus are mostly optimistic).
Some additional thoughts on this and the figures for 2018-2019:
Excellent post and link. Thanks.
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Post by coolrunning on Sept 30, 2019 9:28:10 GMT
Well I keep on a little with them. No new money but I rotate the money I get.
Mostly 2nd market. I like to look carefully at a loan before I invest. And I'm there anyway when dumping poor loans.
Good luck everyone.
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Post by coolrunning on Aug 26, 2019 8:47:17 GMT
Thanks James
Nice to speak with you again.
Trouble is I do not use Facebook !
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Post by coolrunning on Aug 26, 2019 5:46:08 GMT
It has been a while since I came here.
Strange to see there is a little life here after all.
By now I must count as one of the old investors.
Where do people get news on Bondora in English?
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Post by coolrunning on Oct 18, 2018 11:35:25 GMT
I have had problems for a while.
Very difficult to see anything.
Always doing site updates.
Are you seeing the same ?
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Post by coolrunning on Sept 14, 2018 11:21:51 GMT
And now, no access to the 2nd market even after agreeing to the new terms
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Post by coolrunning on Aug 23, 2018 16:00:07 GMT
Of course.
But I'm glad to see some people still read this forum.
Where else do you look for Bondora user chat (in English) ?
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Post by coolrunning on Aug 17, 2018 11:48:56 GMT
I keep seeing blogs from Bondora saying things like "P2P cash recoveries - 74% increase ".
Of course there are increases. Bondora has expanded their volume of loans, so more will go into default and some time later, recoveries will increase.
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