jjc
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Post by jjc on Feb 27, 2015 12:08:16 GMT
Upside impossible to call really, so many unknowns. Before counting unhatched chickens worth investors considering the downside risks too perhaps - part & parcel of private equity investing. I’d personally put the risk of capital losses well into double figure % terms. This is marginal in the context of PE, but worth bearing in mind. AC execution risks & other less controllable external factors (political / regulatory/ financial market risks) the main concerns. Good luck to all, wherever it goes.
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Feb 18, 2015 14:55:07 GMT
My understanding is that NDA’s should be ready later today, & AC are aiming to provide us financial info tomorrow. I was told they had this info already but were “simplifying” it for us. I had no idea that meant a 1 page summary, if that is the case then not only would I be cooling off very quickly from this opp but I would harbour some concerns about AC.
Pitching for investments from sophisticated / HNW investors looking to bid 25k+ (or from small faithful lenders who are in many cases embarking on their first experience with convertible notes etc & would appreciate if not also need a minimum of clarity) on the basis of a single sheet is quite frankly ridiculous.
Serious money or small money that makes you feel tied to the AC team, in both cases AC owe us much more than that.
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Feb 18, 2015 12:03:23 GMT
I put in a request for the NDA last night & am still waiting for it. Perhaps the first to get it could drop a note so we're all aware.
I'll certainly read it before signing, that said the info on AC's business plan & financials is pretty key to understanding likely returns to investors, can't see how we can do more than guess without it.
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Feb 10, 2015 18:34:04 GMT
To add to bigfoot12's good points I would say - good biz model & experienced management - part of a group with various revenue streams - strong covenant cover - the PG though unsecured ties the director to the success of the business, given his background & what he’s trying to do with this venture it would be a disaster for him (likely to wreck all his future career prospects) if he had to declare himself bankrupt I take mike's point bricks & mortar always welcome but I do see these as valid loans, so have invested in all tranches (same reasoning as sl75 above - tried & tested btw) – for a total across these lower than my usual max stake. The game-changer for me would be if AC were to have a packaged investment account (similar to GEIA) investing in these 5 tranches. Would make them much more liquid, appetising & generally good to go for a much wider lending base.
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Feb 10, 2015 10:45:53 GMT
Probably worth keeping an eye on LendInvest, who will most likely IPO in 2015. The best benchmark I can see for AC at the mo, am sure Stuart & his advisors will be watching their raise closely.
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jjc
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Ablrate (ABL) in Administration
new loans?
Feb 9, 2015 17:49:37 GMT
Post by jjc on Feb 9, 2015 17:49:37 GMT
Sorry but am fully with shimself on this. Deal flow is the one & only big urgent issue for ABL. The current site works, sure it can be improved but I can’t understand why everything has to take a second seat to the new magical offering. Sounds like far too much time being spent on the salad dressing & the cook’s forgotten the beef. And cheese. And pretty much everything else. I’m off for a sausage roll. Somewhere cheap’n nasty might have to settle for a dry one at the back but when your tummy’s a-rumbling…
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Feb 9, 2015 16:55:15 GMT
stuartassetzcapital I’ve expressed an interest privately to you in the past on the equity raise. Thought I’d raise yr attention to this thread. Might be a good place to say what you can/like when the appropriate moment. For my part an idea of which Q/H of year you are targeting would be useful to know. bengilbert's comment about Lending Club is true but I hope we don’t get too carried away with things. AC are smaller, younger & have a far less dominant position in a much more fragmented market. Personally speaking I’d be happy with a moderate initial raise at a fair price with yes some institutional money but also something suitable set aside for AC’s faithful small investor lending base (AC could invite us to indicate our desired stakeholdings?), followed by a larger raise when serious institutional money can pile in. Maybe asking too much? For lenders who may not know I believe LC’s valuation has gone up by a factor of >100 since their first raise, so even a modest stake will have yielded quite nicely thanks very much oh you naughty capital markets you.
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Feb 9, 2015 15:51:48 GMT
I would (normally) share pikestaff's views on these equity raises. But being invested on a platform for a reasonable period of time (& hearing about their future plans etc on the forum) helps me feel I’m at least as (if not more) likely to have a chance at guessing their prospects compared to another equity investment where press & analyst commentary (for what it’s worth) is basically all I have to go on.. So I’m interested. Never had a problem with throwing good money after more good money
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Feb 5, 2015 17:42:29 GMT
Impressive uptake stuartassetzcapital. Is that £1m held in GEIA by lenders now or total £1m GEIA purchases made to date? Eg if I bought £100 then sold it off then rebought it, would that count for £100 or £200? Look forward to the invoice discounting! Judging from Andrew's comments earlier today that appears to be a few months away though for us?
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Feb 5, 2015 17:19:55 GMT
Sign me up for the notifications. Sorely needed! An sms option had also been talked about last summer at the lenders' event (perhaps useful in 2H 2015 for new loans when deal flow is supper zippy), shorter term anything (eg updates section on homepage listing loans where important updates - including points raised on Q&A - have occurred) would be fantastic. I'd vote for notice of possible Early Redemptions to be included. For example even a wee list of loans most likely to redeem in order of "likeliness". Even if subjective & with order likely to vary (as borrowers advance/pull away from a possible redemption) it would point us lenders to having a look at these loans & adjusting our targets as appropriate (hence also adding fizz to the AM). Can see ER's happening more this year, something to track this most useful. Excellent update andrewholgate, much appreciated. Just seen this www.altfi.com/news/727quite interesting. Any comments?
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Feb 3, 2015 19:14:46 GMT
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Jan 26, 2015 17:10:59 GMT
The RBS release mentioned that all referrals would be made to both AC & FC, which suggested fees would be waived (or would have had to have been agreed with both platforms beforehand). The latter whilst possible was perhaps trickier to manage (& if mandatory platforms could have effectively bid it down to zero anyway simply by refusing any fees..), in any case the wider context is banks are in effect happily vacating a lending area in favour of more succulent pastures following Basel3 regs, as eloquently explained in another thread recently. Better to leave graciously & show you’re doing your bit for British SME’s (whilst you cash in on B3). One thing not clear is whether RBS will retain some form of monitoring / right to reconsider referrals further down the line if they believe this could be appropriate. That could be used to open up an auction of referrals so to speak (whether spurious or not) similar to the scenario you described in say 6-12 months. This at a time when more platforms might be better positioned to tout for it (& existing referees such as AC may be more susceptible to bid more generously if only to keep their deal flow & cover the larger overheads they will have in place to deal with it). So your scepticism is probably not entirely misplaced.. Famous saying in Italy “chi pensa male fa peccato ma spesso ci indovina” (he who has bad thoughts commits a sin but is often right)
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Jan 26, 2015 14:10:44 GMT
Reassuring to hear (& reasonable given the mandatory nature – implied if perhaps not yet formally legislated? - of the scheme).
FC’s referral scheme with Santander was announced last June. If a savvy FC investor here could tell us something re the platform’s deal flow increase from say May/Jun last year to end of 2014/now-ish that might be a useful pointer to what we can reasonably expect to get on AC over the summer from the RBS deal. Even if the referral pie will be split across 2 platforms (& perhaps 5 in future it would seem from the RBS press release). Any thoughts/guesstimates welcome.
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Jan 25, 2015 20:42:04 GMT
Anything that helps bring in more loans is good news to me. But I personally don’t feel like getting into too celebratory a mood about this deal quite yet. Finger in the air we can probably only expect a major (sustained) increase in loans from the RBS deal to come through in about July (drawdown basis). That’s a long way away. And uncomfortably close to the holiday season. What can we expect from AC until then?
In the meantime.. redemptions.. I made some checks earlier this month & was slightly startled to see that about half my AC portfolio was likely to redeem in upcoming months. It’s a substantial sum of money that tbh I simply can’t see being realistically deployable again on AC with the new loan delivery process unless there is a very significant uplift in AC’s deal flow.
Granted big numbers have been mentioned for 2015 (£300m), encouraging as that may sound without some more beef (& bearing in mind the big shortfall from target in 2014) I feel wary about believing this, & even more wary about planning an investment strategy solely on the basis of such declarations..
Is anyone else finding it rather difficult to plan their investments (even basic step 1 considerations like number of loans & bid/loan) on AC this year? Happy to exchange thoughts with others whilst we wait for further news.
In the meantime one would expect the steady flow of large bids onto other platforms will continue.
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Jan 20, 2015 23:28:48 GMT
This was one of the big swingers, I had it at 600-800k before Xmas. Hard to guage now there’s no label on the AC loan tins but I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s some been some uw activity affecting things on it.
Of marginal importance in any case at this juncture, the fundamentals look sound & with LTV heading south of 50% it could be a good place to park something away for the dry season. A couple of redemptions (if that) & I expect it’ll be getting chewed up by the shraplenator.
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