jjc
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Post by jjc on Oct 27, 2014 11:54:47 GMT
I voted good. Am generally a big supporter of the AC team & what they at least seem to be trying to do, on that count they may (let’s see how things develop…) merit a “Very Good”. Due to the early glitches on the new platform I couldn’t honestly give them more than a “Good” – it would have been an “OK” for how it was done (mandate management, info prior to & guide etc could definitely have been better) mitigated by probably a “V Good” for the quick & laudable reaction & fixes from the AC IT team. My personal take on the launch – AC knew there were going to be things to iron out & went for it “gung-ho” confident these could be sorted quickly without major money risks to, & yes – from my perspective at least – it seems to have worked. So well done.
That all said… my real concerns relate to the deal flow from AC.
Since Sep we’ve had – if we exclude the wind loans which I for personal reasons participate to a small/no degree in many cases (btw not because I don’t think they’re good) - 5 loans draw down in Sep & just 1 (Essex BL) in Oct. The 5 Sep ones were auctions dating back from the hazy distant past of either June or July, so really we’ve only had 1 loan quick to offer to lenders & draw down. Is that a good record?
In the meantime, there have been if memory serves me right at least 6 loans which either died a death before they even got started (London software, Herts BL, Scottish leisure park, Redruth dvpt, the boaty & E. Midlands), another pulled destination unknown (W-s-Mare) & one that did get going doing so at a reduced balance. Grand Total 8 that either partly or totally vanished into thin air…
It may be that AC have had some “bad luck” on a couple or so of these deals, & we all know that loan origination is not the simplest of activities, one would imagine even less so for “quality suppliers” with proper security to set up & & professional duedil of loans such as AC. Granted, & that’s why AC can still count on my support.
But that doesn’t cover the fact that deal flow has been …. sorry… very very very poor. I may be (hope not) in a minority on this forum ie a lender looking to increase – perhaps significantly – my lending on the AC platform. I’m sure I’m not in a minority in the grander scheme of P2P/AltFi lending – there’s lots of money pouring in & new lending records are being set almost on a monthly basis…
So as a lender I do hope AC will take note that it has NOT been easy to increase our lending on AC (even for us strong AC “supporters”), they are missing out on my & many other lenders funds, & now they have the shiny new Rolls Royce (with a Ferrari engine under the bonnet imo) platform up & roaring to go… if something isn’t put right quickly on the deal flow our good friends up in Mancs will have failed to cash in on a lot of hard work. A real shame..
I’ll wish them good luck. But sort it out guys.
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Oct 12, 2014 21:21:09 GMT
I may be an exception but I've not encountered these login problems. I use Chrome, the system "pauses" for prob 4-5 secs after I login but then I'm in & fine. No way enough time to make a cuppa. Almost feel like complaining!
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Oct 11, 2014 12:27:32 GMT
Loan take-up picking up now (10% gone despite the lack of lenders' free funds &/or preference to buy on the AM). After what we've seen on the AM last few days following the redemption of SM*ncs, I reckon this loan (& at least a good portion of BMLT2 & P** windie to name just 2 more) will disappear mighty zippily when H***ney BL redeems next week.
Last week there were a lot of other BL's into which lenders could recycle, there are none now. An interesting week ahead.
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Oct 9, 2014 16:48:21 GMT
I think AC are wanting to allow a wider base of (also new) lenders to participate, seems fair enough to me. Don't expect loans to fly out the door instantly, not all lenders are connected 24/7 onto the AC site, take-up might quicken in due course once more peeps have had the chance to read & duedil.
Personally I think this is a good loan. There's a tendency it seems amongst some (on this forum anyway) to focus solely on the security, forgetting perhaps the fundamental business case behind the loan & the likelihood of the repayments being made. If that is strong then security becomes less important (if never irrelevant). Just my thoughts.
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Oct 9, 2014 12:39:22 GMT
£1k bid limit has been lifted on this loan now
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Oct 7, 2014 22:08:41 GMT
Fully agree with mrc. Furthermore, the absence of a VR for lenders makes risk assessment in practice impossible. Would it not be possible to upload a copy with the borrower's identity blacked out at this juncture? There is 70k of this loan sitting on the AM, lenders who'd like to exit cannot because lenders who might like to take a small piece or increase their exposure have no way of evaluating the risks involved. This serves the interests of nobody, AC, lenders (new or old), risk-averse or yield-hungry. Pure curiosity, does the agreement for anonymity (which presumably would not be compromised with a duly doctored copy of the VR) hold irrespective of any & all possible breaches of loan conditions by the borrower?
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Sept 25, 2014 22:24:57 GMT
"Looks though like AC are in for a very busy couple of months over defaults - something they could have done without."
We could look at it another way.. think of the calling card AC could make for themselves on the market if they manage to handle the BL's successfully...
prove your mettle in challenging conditions & you have won some serious sway with the lending community
at probably just about the perfect time for P2P lending too.. not long till ISA's & other things will make this baby go a whole lot bigger
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Sept 25, 2014 22:13:35 GMT
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Sept 19, 2014 17:13:20 GMT
Not all hugely clear to me.
Some queries/concerns: - big diff (30%) in the 2 valuations made. Either the one last year was well over-rosy (in which case why mention it in the CR?) or something has happened in the commercial space market in the Stansted area this year, or prices/demand for these 2 specific properties (converted barns, could be very nice or could be a tad shabby - hard to tell from the 1 car-park pic) is somewhat lumpy. - RMV (6 months) from De Villiers is 235k (so LTV 83%..) - could the Natwest-borrower issue impact on lenders in some way (eg if sale is not made in 6 months, & the loan has to be extended/refinanced)? The CR is not clear on what the dispute between them was about (the 675k mortgage he has? & if so what's it on? or a loan taken on these 2 properties?), so not clear to me what any poss impact could be. Lenders are said to have a 1st charge, which would suggest that either Natwest have waived their charge in our favour (would they really so easily?) or the dispute was on a loan/mortgage on something else. Just guessing, but if it's on the 675k mortgage he has on his home say & he doesn't manage to sell these 2 units in 6 months (possible as we know with BL's in lumpy markets), could the bank conceivably force a quick sale (at a level close to the RMV quoted)?
Am hoping there are no big underlying issues here, but if the CR had been drafted up more clearly twould have been helpful.
Just my tuppence
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Jul 28, 2014 14:26:19 GMT
Interesting comments but returning to the subject of this thread I'm surprised this loan isn't filling more quickly.
Rate issues aside, it's a small loan easily tradeable on AM, marginal development risk (planning consent already obtained, not a complex construction, experienced developer), works already commenced in May (already half-way through expected 18 weeks build-out time), presumably a v. fast drawdown will follow, easily sellable asset, credible (& perhaps conservative) market valuation, short duration and likely to extend perhaps with some default interest whilst under negotiation - ie ticks many boxes that other bigger loans available now don't.
So where's the catch? Or is it just the weekend effect/lenders away on hols?
I'm considering increasing my bid now the 2k limit has been lifted (beyond what I would normally consider sensible), would be interested in other lender's views on this loan.
The possible issues that spring to mind are: - possibly lax duedil/conflict of interest due to the borrower's architect doubling up as monitoring surveyor (this however can be addressed by AC's experience making sure the progress steps are properly specified & followed) - the significant discrepancy between what the borrower is planning to spend & what the valuation expected would be necessary (presumably due to the high-spec finishings planned), & the differences in the completed property valuation (risk of overspeccing? should presumably be unlikely given the borrower is said to be an experienced developer) - the "shortfall of funds" risk mentioned on page 1 of the CR - given the borrower is asset-rich this suggests that he may have temporary cash-flow issues, that said he could presumably spec-down the finishings if necessary without risking having to sell at lower than the £250k estimation
all told then it appears to be an easily digestible, simple & lower-risk development than other loans of this type offering a similar return..but maybe I'm missing something..
I haven't been able to find any garage or similar listed at 1 Maryland Road, N22 on Google Maps, am guessing it's the plot (with black garage doors, or the adjacent one) next to the first terraced house on the northern pavement at the western end of Maryland Rd, any shedding of light most welcome
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Jul 11, 2014 19:02:45 GMT
I too was added earlier this afternoon. It was indeed a question of finding someone to press the buttons, nothing more complicated than that, but seems a missing dot or similar in an automated email request was holding things up. Anyhow thanks very much to the moderators for fixing things quickly. As others have pointed out they are volunteers, so the quick response doubly appreciated.
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Jul 11, 2014 11:51:49 GMT
Thanks Rambling. I think it's just a question of someone on the forum pressing a button. I'm new to this but will try catching mrclondon attention here now if this link works. Thanks
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Jul 11, 2014 11:33:04 GMT
Hi there, calling any moderators, administrators or similar - I've been waiting for access to the private board since Monday. Martin Heelam at Assetz has duly granted me this but can't seem to get anyone on the forum here to activate it for me.
Not sure what else to do? If somebody knows how to pull someone's eye/ear or any other loose dangling end of them enough to get them to peer into this would be much appreciated!
Many thanks
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jjc
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Post by jjc on May 28, 2014 12:40:47 GMT
Hi all, newbie here looking to lend more on AC. Apologies for the possible ignorance on property loans but what happens if the borrower defaults on this loan – do lenders get 1,75%/month & if so as from when until when realistically? I’ve heard that 2nd charges on a borrower’s own home are difficult to enforce, slightly put off by this.
May have missed something but if the loan is to enable the borrower to start a new venture & cover him for a period until the £1.2m due to him comes in from a previous venture (ventures re which we have little/no info, have to take him on his word?)…
1. couldn’t he delay the new venture until the £1.2m (or part of it) comes in (which should be in the next couple of months presumably, he’s already waited 6 months plus however long it took him to weigh up his options, approach AC/others & get vetted for the initial loan..)
2. is it really credible you’d put your own house up for a sale taking a £750k hit on the market price in these circumstances (particularly if you’re a wealthy individual). Wouldn’t the use of some of yr other funds, an equity release or increase in the mortgage (or mixture of the above) be a cheaper way of doing things?
If there is distress here what happens in the event of default becomes pretty important. Some lenders may be happy to take a punt for 1,75%/month but if this isn’t enforceable for a long period of time it would be helpful to know.
Thanks & best wishes to all
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jjc
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Post by jjc on May 28, 2014 11:30:34 GMT
Hello folk, newbie here. Have a background in renewables, happy to comment on this offer when full docs available if it helps. In the meantime from a look at the other 3 windies I’d say the most significant points are that the borrower in NL (who may be the same one as for this loan?) is looking to put in 30% equity stake, compared to about 15% for the 77 & 83 auctions. That makes quite a difference, normally you’d be needing to put in 20% min to get debt finance.
The loans are all structured in the same way, the key point for me as regards risk is the track record of the developer in building out the sites in time before any fall in the FIT. One can assess that better knowing if/when pre-accreditation for the FIT was made (you have 12 months from then I believe to commission in the UK, after which you get whatever FIT is available at the time you connect), & clear info on the developer’s track record (specifically how many sites he has already commissioned -consented isn’t enough). The former is available (on the Q&A) for 77 I believe not the others, this info should in future be provided as standard in the documentation.
As regards political risk on the FIT scheme I would not be concerned, the retrospective changes made in other countries were due to specific problems in their energy policy setup & the UK govt has been quite clear it won’t go down this route. Scottish independence also unlikely to have an impact, FITs for sites already installed prior to independence will continue to be paid as before & those built after any possible independence I would be pretty confident will be so too (a new UK-exc-Scotland will need these plants to meet its EU commitments & Scotland will need the contribution from billpayers south of the border to avoid bills skyrocketing in Scotland, a deal will be struck). This in any case assuming Scotland does go independent (doubtful IMHO) & that the timeframe is exceedingly quick (before these plants connect to the grid ie impossible.)
As regards shale gas, the impact this will have remains to be seen, even its strongest proponents acknowledge this wouldn’t be available in meaningful volumes for many years & is most unlikely to have anything like the sort of impact on gas prices it has had in the US. Here in the UK it’s more of an issue of energy security (making up for dwindling N. Sea gas) & perhaps having a role in decarbonisation by replacing coal (not renewables).
I agree with the comments about the lack of index linking. These offers are actually unusual for the renewables sector, usually you have either construction finance (for 3-6 months, similar to bridging loans in the property sector) which offers a premium for the risk the site isn’t built out in time/on cost before a drop in the FIT but isn’t index-linked because you’re lending money only for the build, or alternatively investments in the completed & already operating plant (which are around the 7% mark but index-linked, as pointed out this can make a significant difference in your returns over time as they compound…).
Hope there’s something useful there, best wishes & thanks to all for what looks like being a very good forum.
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