jamie
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Post by jamie on May 3, 2018 18:36:06 GMT
I've started drawing down my zopa account, I've been keeping track of my investments more closely since November last year and working out my annualised interest, for zopa it's been 13.93%, 2.69%, -0.7%, 0.38%, 8.73%, 6.12% each month and so far this month 3.19% (I run from the 23rd of each month). Annualised return for Q1 was 2.86% and Q2 so far 3.01% so really not good returns for the risk.
Although not my poorest performing investment, that award goes to Property Partner, Q1 2.5% and Q2 so far 0.77%, needless to say I'm getting out of there too, although only put £1.5k in as an experiment so not the end of the world.
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Post by p2pbystander on May 8, 2018 16:45:18 GMT
I have started to waver in recent months also and a loss of trust in Zopa is mainly to blame.
I pretty much had trouble free investing for years up until November last year with minimal losses and good returns each year. Once we hit November, I mysteriously started picking up a large number of defaults. Just as Zopa was winding down the safeguard fund, I started picking up the tab on a load of borrowers who have impeccable timing. Also the removal of the safeguard fund now means that Zopa have zero risk in the loans they manage. When I asked them what internal controls they had to ensure that my investments were being handled sensibly, I was met with silence. People investing with them should be aware that you are basically relying on their honesty to look after your money (and everyone in the financial sector is honest).
I feel that Zopa has strayed to far from their original mission statement, getting a good deal for everyone seems to be off the table and now its more about getting a good deal for Zopa. They have relied for too long on rock bottom interest rates to keep investors ploughing money in.
I haven't pulled the plug yet, but I haven't made any money on my investment recently either so am watching my account very closely at the moment.
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jaswells
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Post by jaswells on May 8, 2018 21:40:23 GMT
Same here. My impression is that Zopa have decided they now need to show healthy profit growth. They have mighty ambitions of bank status, IPO etc and this is a necessity for a year or two. However, the only way to do this and be attractive to borrowers is to skin lenders. This may work but like you I noticed the turning point was about 6 months ago and now i am at a standstill with almost no return on investment since then. Watching.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on May 9, 2018 8:08:56 GMT
A lot of this is anecdotal. Is actual bad debt worse than forecast bad debt? I can’t recall seeing the stats.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on May 9, 2018 11:08:08 GMT
There are 4 things people can look at: Zopa Actual risk performance
Zopa Risk marketsZopa Actual return for past 5 yearsZopa public Loan book
After downloading with the public loan book, people can examine loans performance originated in 2017(01/01/2017-31/12/2017). It's a big loan book of 20Mb. Here's my finding: Total amount loaned: £985M Total interest received (up to April 2018): £49.3M Estimated Total interest received for the Full year 2017 (12 months): £34.8M Total Capital lost: £17.1M Net return for Full year 2017: £17.6M Net return as percentage: 1.78% Total original amount of D/E loans: £107M Portion of D/E loans: 10.87% Amount of D/E loans defaulted to date: £7.3M Default rate of D/E loans to date: 6.8% Expected default rate for D in 5 years lending: 9-11% Expected default rate for E in 5 years lending: 10-12%
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Post by sayyestocress on May 9, 2018 11:57:47 GMT
Although not my poorest performing investment, that award goes to Property Partner, Q1 2.5% and Q2 so far 0.77%, needless to say I'm getting out of there too, although only put £1.5k in as an experiment so not the end of the world. I think you might be being a bit unfair to PP TBH. With PP you lose 2% or 2.5% on the primary and secondary markets respectively at the time of investment; it'll take months of rental dividend to re-pay this so PP will look awful in the short term but should perform up towards the indicated dividend in the long term. Then you also need to factor in that this is a total return product and you won't realise any of this capital gain until the 5th year if you exit and the property market is in good shape, or the property has strong demand for you to sell at a profit on the secondary market. Then factor in that on PP you are earning dividends and capital gains that may be tax free if you're within their respective allowances. PP is an equity investment, the likes of Zopa are debt investments; quite different beasts.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on May 9, 2018 13:01:50 GMT
After downloading with the public loan book, people can examine loans performance originated in 2017(01/01/2017-31/12/2017). It's a big loan book of 20Mb. Here's my finding: Total amount loaned: £985M Net return as percentage: 1.78% Not good !
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 9, 2018 13:24:16 GMT
Although not my poorest performing investment, that award goes to Property Partner, Q1 2.5% and Q2 so far 0.77%, needless to say I'm getting out of there too, although only put £1.5k in as an experiment so not the end of the world. I think you might be being a bit unfair to PP TBH. With PP you lose 2% or 2.5% on the primary and secondary markets respectively at the time of investment; it'll take months of rental dividend to re-pay this so PP will look awful in the short term but should perform up towards the indicated dividend in the long term. Then you also need to factor in that this is a total return product and you won't realise any of this capital gain until the 5th year if you exit and the property market is in good shape, or the property has strong demand for you to sell at a profit on the secondary market. Then factor in that on PP you are earning dividends and capital gains that may be tax free if you're within their respective allowances. PP is an equity investment, the likes of Zopa are debt investments; quite different beasts. The figures I gave do not include any fees as I've not made any new investments with them for 6 months, this is actual returns. Also when evaluating investments you need to take into account the fees the platform charge else it is not a like for like comparison against a platform that doesn't charge fees at all or charge them in the same way. It's still the worst performing and IMO the most risky out of all my investments as it requires people wanting to buy my shares in order for me to get the money back, at least with P2P lending the repayments will keep coming in (minus any defaults) so you will be much more likely to get the money back should something bad happen. If property partner hit hard times an no one wants to buy your shares you can say good bye too every penny you have with them.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 9, 2018 13:28:54 GMT
I've just had a whole bunch of new defaults this month I'm pulling everything out. One thing I have noticed is that the safeguard loans stay on my books for ages even after many months of non payment and the money will trickle back in dribs and drabs. However my non safeguard loans appear to just default and the money is gone for good. Are Zopa better at recovering safeguard loans because they will have to pay out if they don't get the money back?
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on May 9, 2018 14:05:24 GMT
Well for the first time ever (and I’m a founder member) I’ve made a monthly loss. Last month, on my £40k I made -£14 interest. Withdrawing repayments will continue.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on May 9, 2018 14:45:32 GMT
After downloading with the public loan book, people can examine loans performance originated in 2017(01/01/2017-31/12/2017). It's a big loan book of 20Mb. Here's my finding: Total amount loaned: £985M Net return as percentage: 1.78% Not good ! To give a better perspective of 16 months return (without monthly reinvestment), this is what I found for loans originated in Jan 2017Total loan amount: £81M Total Interest received (after 15 months repayment): £6.23M Total Capital lost: £2.93M Default rate of loans originated in Jan 2017 to date: 3.6% Net retrun: 4%Total original amount of D/E loans: £13.2M Total capital lost of D/E loans: £1.35M Portion of D/E loans in January 2017: 16% Default rate of D/E loan to date: 10.23% Net return of D/E loans to date: 7.1%
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Post by patlk on May 9, 2018 15:23:16 GMT
Same here. My impression is that Zopa have decided they now need to show healthy profit growth. They have mighty ambitions of bank status, IPO etc and this is a necessity for a year or two. However, the only way to do this and be attractive to borrowers is to skin lenders. This may work but like you I noticed the turning point was about 6 months ago and now i am at a standstill with almost no return on investment since then. Watching.Agree Agree seeing the same with my own returns. Difficult to see how their ambitions of a big successful bank, will successfully materialise if they're skinning lenders. The market is plenty crowded with those kind of banks. Hopefully they'll get their act together asap 1st time poster, long time reader
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on May 9, 2018 20:41:42 GMT
Well for the first time ever (and I’m a founder member) I’ve made a monthly loss. Last month, on my £40k I made -£14 interest. Withdrawing repayments will continue. Looks like your luck has run out
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on May 9, 2018 22:19:33 GMT
Well for the first time ever (and I’m a founder member) I’ve made a monthly loss. Last month, on my £40k I made -£14 interest. Withdrawing repayments will continue. Same here, first monthly loss, but £350 on £70k (£550 interest, £900 losses). I was already withdrawing repayments, have now put in first Sell order having decided will be better off elsewhere even after taking the 1% hit. Wasn't due simply to April's loss, but due to bad debt being in excess of 60% for each of the last 7 months.
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Post by maybeme on May 10, 2018 9:11:46 GMT
I suspect that personal loan defaults are going to keep rising as costs of things like petrol and some food rise. So our losses will increase
A concern is that this becomes a press-story about all of P2P being bad (there are lots of journalists who never invested and therefore feel bitter) and then all P2P sites suffer as a result. They only survive if people are willing to lend money to them.
My very amateur view is:
- Zopa is over (nice rhyme too) - Ratesetter is next (already sneakily changing their investing rules) - Funding Circle returns will suffer soon but hang on - the other companies will suffer only due to negative sentiments about P2P
So I'm reducing my lending in this order
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