aju
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Post by aju on Jul 4, 2018 14:35:27 GMT
I think I'm giving it away this month, well not exactly ....
Just got a shock when I looked at Summary for the latest month (July) today on the ISA side. Couldn't quite see how my earnings had reduced from when I last looked. So I checked Summary for July and there it was before interest had managed to get anything I had two defaults that gave me less money out than in. Came out in a cold sweat as I'd never seen that before. Its picked up as the Interest comes in but it got worse when Mrs Aju shouted across from the office complaining she was losing money - It took a little bit of explaining before she agreed not to hit the Sell button.
The thing is, in over 12 years with Zopa I had never seen that before - probably never looked at it at the same time and also the default rates are much higher now that I have a mucher larger number of loans as well. I'm not sure Mrs Aju will not have me crown jewels off if she loses money at the end of the year but I did explain that this thing should settle down more and relending will mean that she should get a return. That's my theory and its worked for 12 years ( I keep reminding myself that past performance is not and indicator of future performance). I believe that our recent heavy lending is just skewing things until it settles down.
Bit of a cold sweat moment none the less and thankfully these 2 loans that caused the sweat were thankfully both £10 outstanding - originated last year. Still both in core though and B rates.
One very interesting thing also is that Myself and Mrs Aju have independant accounts but we are also lenders on the same defaulted loans at a matched rate of almost 60%. recently we have been lending at different times but not sure that this is strategy either. It reminds me of the old days when we used to determine the lending rates ourselves I seem to remember I once got 3 seperate rates on the same loan - can;t remember how I got that now though its a long time ago.
Edit: I am back in the black this month after todays run. Phew!
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johni
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Post by johni on Jul 5, 2018 16:23:52 GMT
It's not good when this happens but as your loan book matures zopa says it will settle down. Time will tell.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Sept 4, 2018 8:50:48 GMT
For Aug 2018, the losses on my IFISA Zopa+ account, which has never had any money withdrawn, were 97% of my interest !
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Post by newlender on Sept 4, 2018 15:08:49 GMT
cb25 - over what time span and how much is invested? That figure seems very high.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Sept 4, 2018 15:14:52 GMT
cb25 - over what time span and how much is invested? That figure seems very high. sorry, forgot to say that was in August, have just edited my original posting. My IFISA was fully funded prior to 1/1/2018, had no additional money invested this year, just re-investments, no withdrawals.
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Post by newlender on Sept 4, 2018 15:30:22 GMT
That makes more sense. In my Investing account (Z+) prior to opening my IFISA I regularly saw interest being almost wiped out by defaults. That was before Zopa tweaked the profile of Z+, which now includes fewer D/E borrowers. Why did you choose to put the lot into Z+? My ISA portfolio (opened June 2017) is 80%/20% Core/Z+ and I get 2 or 3 defaults each month.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Sept 4, 2018 16:13:42 GMT
Why did you choose to put the lot into Z+? Hoping to achieve a higher rate.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Sept 4, 2018 17:00:17 GMT
For Aug 2018, the losses on my IFISA Zopa+ account, which has never had any money withdrawn, were 97% of my interest ! , the blackbox system is beyond our control, we all have been moaning about the defaults. I'm curious about the default rate since you started IFISA 8 months ago, is it less than Zopa's claim less than 1% in the first 12 months? I only have loans in default with my zopa plus after selling the lot, current default rate is 4.59% of all time investment, which is close to their expected default rate. Don't forget about bad debt repayment, you will see plenty later.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Sept 4, 2018 17:53:28 GMT
I started funding my IFISA Z+ from my regular Z+ account mid June 2017, was full (£20K) by end Sept 2017. Defaults since then 2017 Oct £9.39 Nov £10.00 Dec £9.84 2018 Jan £110.84
Feb £48.51
Mar £35.28
Apr £100.52
May £92.30 Jun £71.79 Jul £78.93 Aug £129.16
Loss over first 12 and 1/2 months (mid June 2017-end June 2018): £484.49 which is 2.42% (though IFISA wasn't fully funded until end of Sept 2017)
Loss over the last 11 months (1 Oct 2017-end Aug 2018) when the IFISA was fully funded: £700.58 which is 3.50% (will be slightly less as the IFISA is now slightly more than £20,000). Suggests 3.82% for a full 12 months
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aju
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Post by aju on Sept 4, 2018 22:29:19 GMT
I guess I've been fortunate, like newlender I have been lending at 80/20 Core/Plus in my ISA and have a similar experience too. The last couple of months have been a bit heavier in the defaults department but nothing more than 50% month on month. I did lend most of the money out in £10 blocks though but its early days still on that strategy. |
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Sept 4, 2018 23:14:55 GMT
After withdrawing repayments for two years because of higher rates on RS, I am left with £33,000 in Zopa. Net interest in August was £135 - about on target for an annual 5%ish. 10% of the interest was bad debt repayments.
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Post by newlender on Sept 5, 2018 9:31:41 GMT
My Zopa ISA portfolio (£30k) 80/20 Core/Z+ returned £128 gross interest in both July and August (average £95 net). So about 3.8% p.a. net, which I consider acceptable. One thing I've noticed is this; I shoved two large chunks in this year (Core) - £4k followed by £3k. These were allocated £30 and £40 loans as expected and amazingly only one is showing signs of trouble. I just wonder if the algorithms try to allocate higher loans to the less-risky borrowers, irrespective of banding. Yes, I know it's early days. (Ashtondav - I assume you're mainly in Z+).
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aju
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Post by aju on Sept 5, 2018 12:01:02 GMT
My Zopa ISA portfolio (£30k) 80/20 Core/Z+ returned £128 gross interest in both July and August (average £95 net). So about 3.8% p.a. net, which I consider acceptable. One thing I've noticed is this; I shoved two large chunks in this year (Core) - £4k followed by £3k. These were allocated £30 and £40 loans as expected and amazingly only one is showing signs of trouble. I just wonder if the algorithms try to allocate higher loans to the less-risky borrowers, irrespective of banding. Yes, I know it's early days. (Ashtondav - I assume you're mainly in Z+). Now that's an interesting theory ... if it panned out would be helpful as its extremely slow lending large sums in £10 blocks. That said once a large sum is lent out then all subsequent lending is in £10 blocks for anything other then very large portfolios. a portfolio has to be returning much more than £2000 a month to get even £20 loans as its dripping in and lending out daily. Weekly stats shows that quite clearly I find. I suspect that the lending engine is not being favourable to any specific lending in that manner rather its just a timing issue and loan grade issue on any given day, I think!
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Sept 5, 2018 12:48:56 GMT
My Zopa ISA portfolio (£30k) 80/20 Core/Z+ returned £128 gross interest in both July and August (average £95 net). So about 3.8% p.a. net, which I consider acceptable. One thing I've noticed is this; I shoved two large chunks in this year (Core) - £4k followed by £3k. These were allocated £30 and £40 loans as expected and amazingly only one is showing signs of trouble. I just wonder if the algorithms try to allocate higher loans to the less-risky borrowers, irrespective of banding. Yes, I know it's early days. (Ashtondav - I assume you're mainly in Z+). Classic £11,000 Core: £2,000 Plus: £17,000
In the interests of transparency i should also state that the August net interest quoted includes my early adopter bonus of £26 (I started with Z back in 2005!)
Of course, as I have been withdrawing repayments over the last two or more years in favour of the better 6% rates on RS. I have no or minimal exposure to 2018, 2017 and 2016 loans.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Sept 5, 2018 13:38:37 GMT
My Zopa ISA portfolio (£30k) 80/20 Core/Z+ returned £128 gross interest in both July and August (average £95 net). So about 3.8% p.a. net, which I consider acceptable. One thing I've noticed is this; I shoved two large chunks in this year (Core) - £4k followed by £3k. These were allocated £30 and £40 loans as expected and amazingly only one is showing signs of trouble. I just wonder if the algorithms try to allocate higher loans to the less-risky borrowers, irrespective of banding. Yes, I know it's early days. (Ashtondav - I assume you're mainly in Z+). Classic £11,000 Core: £2,000 Plus: £17,000
In the interests of transparency i should also state that the August net interest quoted includes my early adopter bonus of £26 (I started with Z back in 2005!)
Of course, as I have been withdrawing repayments over the last two or more years in favour of the better 6% rates on RS. I have no or minimal exposure to 2018, 2017 and 2016 loans.
No wonder you are getting 5% ashtondav, with the bonus, and lower default rate prior 2016. It's like comparing apples and oranges.
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