cb25
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Post by cb25 on Jun 5, 2018 14:17:32 GMT
But have you been running down or selling your loanbook? If so, by definition, you will be left with non performing loans as with any other platform. If you haven’t been running down the loanbook then yes it’s bad news. You only make expected returns if you hold for 5 years or more and reinvest repaid capital and interest. I've been running down and (recently) selling my Z+ loanbook, but I think there's more to it than that.
My Z+ 2018 YTD bad debt is something like
- 80% of my 2017 annual bad debt, though I had more money invested in 2017 - 50% higher than my FC 2018 YTD bad debt (for each £1 invested).
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Jun 5, 2018 14:45:15 GMT
It’s just a question of time. At some stage, if you are running down or selling your loans, you will be 100% in problem loans - either in arrears or defaults. That would be the same if you sold all your FC loans, because you can only sell the good ones. In both cases you end up with a 100% problematic, or potentially problematic, loanbook.n
i have been with Z since 2005,and have made expected returns. For the past year or so I have been withdrawing repayments as I prefer the rates on FC. My last tax statement showed earnings at 5% - bang on target. As I run down my book over the next few years I would expect those future returns to decrease and eventually go negative.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Jun 5, 2018 14:49:05 GMT
It’s just a question of time. At some stage, if you are running down or selling your loans, you will be 100% in problem loans - either in arrears or defaults. That would be the same if you sold all your FC loans, because you can only sell the good ones. In both cases you end up with a 100% problematic, or potentially problematic, loanbook. I accept that, but if I were to (say) stick with it for another year, I might be more in the poo than I am already. My Z+ YTD is showing an absolute loss of approx £180. I don't need more of that. Ultimately I'm going to go with my gut feeling and if I get it wrong, so be it.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Jun 5, 2018 14:53:44 GMT
I don’t think p2p is for you. It’s a five year minimum product.
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aju
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Post by aju on Jun 5, 2018 15:01:41 GMT
I certainly have more defaults in recent months but i have a much larger lend especially since isa started and having recently xfered in an external isa i expect that to increase as well. Just having plus is not an indicator of defaults either. My spread is 20:80 plus:other and I'm on the side of fence that treats these as long term lending. Until recently had not reduced any of my investment by selling. Recently though i transferred 5k from invest sg to isa classic sg. Clearly this does not overtly change things but it does make things a little bit different in terms of monthly statements etc. I'm hoping im not one of the winners in the avg game who is tending towards the loser side, time will tell i guess, and i'm trying to look at things on a longer cycle. The invest levels on mine and Mrs Aju has increased quite bit over the last few months since Tescos stopped their dd's on savings account. This has reduced the ability to check defaults are stable, i think it needs a period of at least 2 years of stable relend to settle though. Mind having said all that we have got everything crossed just in case.  |
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Jun 5, 2018 15:09:35 GMT
This is the current trend, Zopa is getting bigger with less lenders.
"Its closest loanbook rival Zopa saw slower growth in new lending, providing £253.4m in the quarter, up 0.3 per cent on the end of last year and 2.8 per cent annually."
"Meanwhile Zopa has actually seen a drop in the number of lenders compared with the first three months of 2017, down 1.29 per cent to 59,967 at the end of the first quarter of 2018."
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aju
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Post by aju on Jun 5, 2018 17:20:56 GMT
This is the current trend, Zopa is getting bigger with less lenders. "Its closest loanbook rival Zopa saw slower growth in new lending, providing £253.4m in the quarter, up 0.3 per cent on the end of last year and 2.8 per cent annually." "Meanwhile Zopa has actually seen a drop in the number of lenders compared with the first three months of 2017, down 1.29 per cent to 59,967 at the end of the first quarter of 2018." Where was that report do you have a link? (Edit no need found it link if anyone else is interested) Very interesting although to be fair a drop of around 600+ lenders in 60000 is not that much really. Id see that as "slightly bigger with slightly less lenders". Whilst it is an interesting prospect - I did pick up a considerable amount of SG cover on my core lending in the middle of last year. I'm happy with that part of the lenders leaving if that is what we are seeing here. I wonder also how much of the 600 or so leavers were just normal eb and flow though. I wonder how much is driven also the opening of some other platforms ISA earlier than Zopa did perhaps. After reading link its interesting that Lending works had the biggest lenders growth and that was 12.3% to 4228. Perhaps some of zopa's losses went to them. It looks large by comparison as a percentage but put more simply zopa lost 600 and lending works gained 400+. Not sure this is that relevant anymore. Still interesting though...
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Post by wyndstryke on Jun 7, 2018 10:49:15 GMT
... if you are running down or selling your loans, you will be 100% in problem loans - either in arrears or defaults. ... Yeah I've got this. Raising money for a deposit so sold some of my old products ... now the bottom line looks terrible lol since there's just late payers and defaults left. Basically just a mirage though.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Jun 7, 2018 11:16:10 GMT
... if you are running down or selling your loans, you will be 100% in problem loans - either in arrears or defaults. ... Yeah I've got this. Raising money for a deposit so sold some of my old products ... now the bottom line looks terrible lol since there's just late payers and defaults left. Basically just a mirage though. I don't believe Zopa's alleged under-performance can be explained simply by running down/selling of loans, as my Z+ ISA - being re-invested, no selling - is running YTD at just under 4%. Not great.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Jun 7, 2018 11:44:28 GMT
It's kinda true Zopa hasn't lost me money on paper yet while I am expecting more default to come since last November. On paper, I have earned 0.8% from Zopa Plus all time after selling off the entire portfolio.
Right now, I am surprised by the performance of loans from the late payers. Back in May 18, I received 1.67% interest payment from my 5 borrowers in arrears while they are in arrears by 16% of the amount borrowed.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Jun 7, 2018 11:53:52 GMT
The bad debt YTD on my non-ISA Z+ account is in excess of 80% of what I incurred in the whole of 2017, despite us not even being half-way through the year (and I have less in the account this year). Not looking hopeful.
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Yintara
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Post by Yintara on Jun 7, 2018 12:21:49 GMT
I've been pretty lucky, fewer than expected defaults until recently and averaged at 5.1% last year. I'd already started pulling money out as per my plan when most of the defaults occurred this year. I should still come out well ahead of a bank account rate by the end of it.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Jun 25, 2018 16:25:58 GMT
4 loans left in Zopa plus now after another default.
Net earning so far for june, -17.9% of current Zopa plus portfolio value.
All time earning on paper for Zopa plus, 0.6%.
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aju
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Post by aju on Jun 25, 2018 17:43:28 GMT
4 loans left in Zopa plus now after another default. Net earning so far for june, -17.9% of current Zopa plus portfolio value. All time earning on paper for Zopa plus, 0.6%. Are you saying you have only 4 loans left in Zopa and they are all defaults ? If its just 4 loans I'm surprised you are getting anything back, interest wise, on a monthly basis I tend to get something every few months on way more loans than this very little if anything is interest though. Last fin year I got £10.18 back but it was mostly capital I think on almost 41 loans in default or settled - Bad debt. This month I can't see what I've got if anything as I am one of the suspended ones. I can't actually tell at the moment how much was int though but to be fair the bad debt on Invest side is running at £214 but that is over the last 10 years or so and most of them are pre-safeguarded. In May I got £1.05 back again I didn't split the numbers in my spreadsheet hardly seems worth it to be honest as its always mostly capital in my experience.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Jun 25, 2018 17:49:32 GMT
After selling out in nov '17, I am left with non performing loans (collection / arrangement)
I am surprised they have not been declared default while they are expected to become default.
The truth, they are in arrears by at about 16% of the amount they borrowed and somehow these borrowers paid back some decent interest in 2018 and sometimes not paying back capital.
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